In its strongest ever warning, Ofgem said there may have to be “controlled disconnections” of homes and businesses in the middle of this decade because Britain has not done enough to make sure it has enough electricity.
The regulator\’s new analysis reveals the risk of power-cuts is almost 50 per cent in 2015 if a very cold winter causes high demand for electricity.
Yes, it is a problem. Old stations being closed down under pollution regulations, not enough new stations being built. And of course, very cold winters in the UK tend to coincide with areas of high pressure and no damn wind at all.
But here\’s the big part of the problem:
Ofgem said that in case of shortages \”industrial demand will be disconnected first, then household demand if the former is not sufficient\”
Politically home electricity is paramount. Not having that is what will raise the ire of the populace. But economically turning it off to business is much worse.
Some companies do have contracts where they agree to be turned off in return for lower prices. There are others out there where even a slight variation in power, let along being turned off, entirely trashes either current production runs or possibly the capital stock itself (anywhere running electric furnaces would be most, most, pissed off to lose power for example).
But that seems to be the way it\’s going to play out. We\’re going to find out just what a cock up the politicians have made of this reaction to climate change thing. And find out the hard way.