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January 2013

An interesting little snippet on the dynamism of this capitalist/market thing

But none has a longer waiting list, nor a greater shared history, than the Tercentenarian Club.

If you have never heard of it, that is not a surprise. It has barely a dozen members, no annual fee, and it meets just once a year. The members are a rag-tag collection of businessmen, including a wine merchant, a butcher, a hat maker, a ribbon manufacturer, a builder and boatyard owner. There’s even a candlestick seller.

To enter the club you need to run a business that has survived for more than 300 years and is still owned by the same family that started it.

Only a dozen out of the millions upon millions of businesses in the country.

And Civitas can fuck off n\’all

The 250-page study from right of centre think-tank Civitas said that creating a new force of troops entirely focused on humanitarian relief would allow Britain to mount swift emergency relief operations to deal with famine and disaster.

Civitas said emergency relief was the most effective form of aid because its immediacy meant it was not prone to the corruption and waste which have bedevilled long term British aid programmes in other countries.

The think-tank said the UK’s aid policy was “naïve” because it was founded on “ideological conditioned fantasies and delusions” about “the behaviours of rapacious political elites in poor countries”.

Civitas said: “The armed forces have the capacity to deliver certain key kinds of emergency aid more quickly and more effectively than any NGO or international aid agency.

“Given the threat to core capacity presented by the Coalition’s deep cuts to the Defence budget, it would serve two complementary goals if some of DfID’s excessive and unmanageable budget were transferred to the military.”

Twats.

The idea of training a force to specialise in disaster relief has merit. Sniffer dogs and infra red detectors to aid after earthquakes, food transport specialists for famine hit areas, combat accountants (in PJ O\’Rourke\’s great phrase. People with wads of cash who know how to bribe to get things done.) and so on.

Why anyone would think that infantry or armoured troops would be any good at this is beyond me. You might as well say that all MPs should be trained to do something useful with their lives. They\’re simply mutually incompatible propositions.

John Penrose is an ignorant twat, isn\’t he?

Writing in Wednesday\’s edition of The Daily Telegraph, John Penrose, who lost his job in last September’s reshuffle, says the country’s best views should be “listed”.

Mr Penrose says there are not enough protections for the UK’s best urban views, like Bath’s royal crescent,

No one is going to build on the lawn in front of the royal crescent so there is no need to have a bureaucratic system which stops people building on the lawn in front of the royal crescent.

There really are some problems that voluntary communal action can solve you know, not everything requires the expensive and meddling hand of the State.

If I were to be charitable about this suggestion I would assume that the Hon. Dido Harding is looking for a suitably grand bureaucratic job as assigner of protection to views. Other than that I can see no reason for anyone at all to put forward such a lunatic idea.

Fatties live longer!

This isn\’t new nor a surprise. But it does show the problem we\’ve got with the BMI measure:

Dr Katherine Flegal, of the National Centre for Health Statistics in the United States, found that people who are overweight had a six per cent lower risk of death than normal weight people.

The risk for those with a BMI (body mass index) of between 30 and 35 fell by five per cent. But those grossly obese with a BMI above 35 were 29 per cent more likely to die than slim people of the same age.

Let us assume, for moment, that the aim of all of this is indeed to enable us all to live long and enjoyable lives (as opposed to the Puritans getting to impose their idea of the good life on us).

Logically we should change the advice we give people. We should be aiming for a BMI of 30-35, not the 25 we are currently told to aim for.

That this has long been known and yet the advice hasn\’t been changed rather leads to the idea that it is all about the Puritans really….

As ever, it appears that Mr. Ridley and I are thinking along the same lines

Here he is in The Times.

Sound familiar? Every small businessman I talk to these days has a horror story to tell about the delays and costs that have been visited upon him by planners, inspectors, officials and consultees. Using the excuse of “cuts”, the bureaucracy is taking even longer to make decisions than five years ago. In the time it has taken Britain’s Government to decide whether to allow a fifth exploratory shale gas well to be drilled in Lancashire, and from the same standing start, the same investors have drilled 72 producing wells in Argentina. That the country of Watt and Stephenson should look a potential cheap-energy gift horse in the mouth in this way is staggering to this jaded optimist.

A growth-preventing bureaucracy is not the only thing suppressing enterprise in Europe.

Here\’s me in The Register a couple of days back:

In order to get something as simple as a method of getting a cab out to market, you\’ve got to fight through layer upon layer of bureaucracy. Indeed, these companies seem to be having exactly the same fight in every city whose market they attempt to enter.

Your standard issue microeconomist would be able to tell you what is happening too. It\’s generally known as regulatory capture. Sure, we need some regulations to protect consumers: but what tends to happen is that those regulators get captured by the producers being regulated. They are, after all, the people with the most interest, the most money to make or lose, dependent upon what the regulations are. So, at the very least, they pay more attention. As a result, regulation tends to develop into a cosy little cartel of the current suppliers. And the regulations themselves as a way of keeping out those pesky upstarts with their innovative ideas.

We\’ve ended up with a world where if you\’re doing something new then there are few barriers to your being able to do it. But if you\’ve got a better way of doing something old then there\’s quite an array of regulators and regulations sitting there trying to stop you from subverting the established order of things. At which point it doesn\’t surprise me all that much that economic growth is slowing down. For it isn\’t just about new things to do, it\’s also very much about better ways of doing old things.

Yes, agreed, some regulation is indeed necessary to protect people. But we\’ve managed to create so much of it that we\’re in danger of returning to a system remarkably similar to those medieval guilds which Smith so vehemently protested against. It\’s a system where you\’re allowed to do all the creation you like but don\’t you dare try doing any of that destruction: and that rather obviates the point of a lot of innovation.

So I\’m emphasising the incumbent protection aspect of much regulation: Matt is emphasising the bureaucracy itself. But we come up with the same answer: the regulatory state is stifling economic growth through the limits it places upon innovation.

A real world example for you. In part of my planning for this German/Czech extravaganza to produce scandium I looked into the possibility of building our own tungsten processing plant (technical background. The Sc is in the W ore. That W ore needs to be processed to release the Sc, we can then extract it from the standard wastes of the standard W processing plant.). We\’d have needed more capital but it looked eminently possible. Margins were good, kit is available on the market. There are two such factories in Europe already (for boring technical reasons our own plant would be better than slipping our ore through those plants). The place we would have put the plant used to do this very process 20 years ago. All of the inputs are produced onsite (that\’s why the old processing plant was at this chemicals factory). There\’s still trained staff around. All of the ancillary stuff is available (from staff canteen through purification of waste water, fire service, medical centre and even surplus hydrogen to reduce the WO3 produced to W).

Seems perfect. Except it would take 18 months just to prepare the required environmental impact study under European Union rules. This is on the site of an extant chemicals factory, producing sulphuric acid and caustic soda. We\’re not talking about violating God\’s Green Acres here, we\’re talking about sticking a few machines in an empty building on a site that has been pumping out all sorts of gunk for well over a century.

Meantime, in China, I know of three Sc producing factories that have been set up within the last 18 months. From bare ground to producing material.

No, I\’m not arguing that we should have China levels of pollution, of zero control over matters environmental. I am though pointing at the way in which such environmental controls do indeed slow economic growth. In this particular case, exclude its possibility: we\’re simply not going to spend the time or money to do it. The plant won\’t get built, the jobs won\’t materialise and the most likely outcome is that the W production will be done in the US.

Or as I\’ve mentioned before, a by product of our processing the wastes of the W production (which we will take back from the US plant) will be a couple of tonnes a month of iron powder. Value maybe $500 a month. Iron\’s a pretty well known substance, it\’ll just be sent off into the scrap chain but better that it is extracted than we landfill it. To do this I must register that one product, iron, at a bureaucracy in Finland at a cost, if I\’ve got this paperwork right, of €8,000.

OK, a trivial example of REACH stupidities. But the great move in the metals world these days is to have a look at all of the wastes from current processes and see what\’s in there that can be extracted as byproduct. No, really, it is. What is there lying around in the wastes of tantalum processing (rare earths mainly). Or aluminium production (erm, iron, alumina, sand, titanium dioxide, rare earths, gallium, germanium, vanadium and by the time you get to that you\’ve pretty much got the entire periodic table available for extraction, certainly potassium, uranium and thorium). But each and every producer of each and every one of these elements must register them with that bureaucracy in Finland. And for a larger company, costs can be €80,000 a substance, not €8,000.

Way to encourage people to extract marginally viable elements from extant waste guys.

I do not claim this is the only reason why economic growth has been slower in recent decades than in the post war ones. But I do claim that it is one of them. We have a system of bureaucracy which is antipathic to the innovation which is economic growth. Maybe it\’s even right, on environmental grounds, that we do have this system. You can certainly argue that although I would say that there\’s too much of it. But what no one can deny is that there is a cost to all of this and that cost is of fewer jobs and less economic growth than we would have without it, or even with a rational and efficient such system.

As ever in a democracy it is your choice: but do please be aware of the choices that are being made.

2012 was the year in which Timmy achieved a life long ambition

For I actually managed to drink a pub dry of beer.

Last night in fact.

So well done Timmy! Another one cross off the bucket list.

Admittedly, it wasn\’t difficult. It was only \”my brand\” of beer that I managed to drink them dry of and they only had three pints when I walked in (difficulties with deliveries over the holidays) but still, a major achievement I think you\’ll all agree.

The real story of that 75% tax rate

Among the measures deemed anti-constitutional is the now world-famous and highly symbolic 75% tax rate for incomes above €1m. Why did the council consider Hollande\’s measure invalid? Simply because it stipulated that any individual earning more than a €1m a year would be taxed 75%, and whoever penned the bill didn\’t seem to know the basics of French fiscal principles; they should indeed have known that the French system taxes households, not individuals.

Has the Murphmeister been freelancing across the Channel? You\’d need something like that to get such an incredible level of arrogance and ignorance.

Because not despite

According to Experian, Apple was the retailer with the most searched for ‘returns policy’ online on Christmas Day.

James Murray, digital insight manager for Experian Marketing Services, said that the technology giant’s plethora of gadgets starting with ‘i’ – iPads, iPods and iPhones – are likely to have confused people who were buying them as presents for others.

The high level of searches for Apple’s returns policy came despite five of the top twenty Christmas gifts this year being Apple products, Experian said.

I would wager that having 5 of the top 20 products would make Apple by far the top source of those Crimble presents.

That they thus top the search lists for \”returns policy\” would appear to be a \”because\” not a \”despite\”.

I love the use of the word \”simply\” here

In fact the imbalance has become self-perpetuating and detrimental to the orchestra as a whole. The Philharmonic’s most recent female member had to spend nine years on probation, rather than the customary three, simply because she took time off to have children. The orchestra’s own spokesman has stated that playing for the Philharmonic is “a demanding job and not practical for female musicians who want a family”. Why would female musicians put themselves into an atmosphere so antediluvian?

Perhaps antediluvian is the right word, perhaps it isn\’t.

Rather depends whether having \”time off\” to have children includes not doing the three or four hours a day of practising that a professional musician needs to do.

So all these health rules are entirely bollocks. So here\’s some new made up ones.

We get confirmation of the fact that the \”safe drinking guidelines\” are bollocks:

This is what Dr Smith has said on the matter: “David Barker was the epidemiologist on the committee and his line was that ‘we don’t really have any decent data whatsoever and it’s impossible to say what’s safe and what isn’t’. So the feeling was that we ought to come up with something. So those limits were really plucked out of the air. They weren’t really based on any firm evidence at all. It was a sort of intelligent guess by a committee.”

Their numbers — 21 units a week for men and so on — were subsequently adopted by the Government and repeated as mantra by GPs and health experts both in the UK and abroad.

So they\’ve all been lying to us for decades.Good Oh.

So what are the true limits?

The new evidence, much less well known, is that tiny amounts of alcohol increase your risk of cancer. If a woman gets through only a very reasonable one bottle of wine a week, her risk of breast cancer goes up by 10 per cent. There is a “sweet spot”, balancing these risks, and the study found that it was incredibly small, at half a unit a day. Given that people are also chronically confused about units (wine strength and glass size are increasing), this means about a quarter of a very modest glass of wine.

Dr Scarborough is at one point heard describing half a glass of wine as “bingeing”.

I don\’t think that\’s going to work you know. I just really don\’t.

Sir Ian Gillmore, former president of the Royal College of Physicians, who appears in the documentary, said: “I think the best evidence is that, taking [into account] all the risks and the potential benefits to older people, the best health option is not to drink at all.”

Who let the Methodists gain control of public policy?

It was a revelation to Dr Mosley, which then became almost wearily predictable when he started researching guidelines on food. The five-a-day mantra on fruit and vegetables, when traced back to its roots, was again a figure plucked out of the air in California to promote the state’s fruit-growers.

The idea took hold because doctors wanted to reduce the public’s cancer risk through diet, although subsequent research suggests that eating fruit and vegetables has remarkably little effect on your cancer risk. And people, especially children, now guzzle vast quantities of juice when all they really gain is a sugar hit.

Dr Mosley is convinced that vegetables are where it’s at: low in sugar, high in all kinds of mysterious compounds that improve our health.

Since they appear to not actually know anything at all perhaps we should just ignore them all?

For given that they now admit they\’ve been lying to us their \”Ah, but now here\’s the real truth!\” isn\’t all that convincing, is it?