\’\’We are suffering just now from a bad attack of economic pessimism. It is common to hear people say that the epoch of enormous economic progress is over; that the rapid improvement in the standard of life is now going to slow down – at any rate in Great Britain; that a decline in prosperity is more likely than an improvement in the decade ahead.”
These words might have been written about our own time, but in fact they are from the opening paragraph of “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren”, an essay penned in 1930 by the British economist John Maynard Keynes.
Indeed, and I rather know where the impetus to read and quote the essay came from.
The conclusion is as follows:
So somewhat presumptuously, I’m going to repeat Keynes’s famous prediction. Forget the present gloom: 100 years from now, living standards will be between four and eight times higher than they are now.
And there\’s very little presumption in that actually. For it is that very assumption that all of climate change is based upon.
No, really, the SRES is the set of economic models that the entirety of the IPCC is based upon. And there we find that the $60 trillion (global) GDP of 1992 (their starting year) is assumed to grow to between $250 and $550 trillion by 2100. The higher end is from a globalised market based capitalism, the lower from a regionalised socialism light.
To issue a prediction that accords with the scientific consensus is not \”presumptuous\”. It\’s simply a statement of the obvious.