Usti is flooding

Quite the news at the pub last night was that the Lebe (Elbe as we call it) is flooding. Normal river level is 2.5 metres…….as of last night it was expected to crest at a little over 6 metres. People living down by the river have been evacuated, the bridges over it are closed. The roads going north and south along it (ie, to Prague or Decin) are shut.

The situation brought back memories of floods in 2002 that killed 17 people, forced tens of thousands from their homes and caused several billion dollars of damage across the country.

Water levels have not reached that point yet but weather forecasters predict the rain will continue for at least another few days, raising the prospect that rivers have not yet peaked.

It\’s not so much that we\’ve had a lot of rain here…..although we have. And it\’s not the snow melt that\’s causing it, that\’s long gone.

It\’s just that it\’s been raining and raining east and south of here. The land is waterlogged, so anything more that comes down is immediately into the streams and rivers. And here in Usti we\’re already a couple of hundred miles downstream.

The emergency system seems pretty good. Everyone knows what to do, things are being done. You can access the estimations of the river level on your phone (and people do).

Current best guess is that it will be not quite as bad as 2002. And yes, I am on higher ground, thank you for asking.

BTW, at 6 metres, the river is carrying 2,000 m3 of water a second through the town……\’s a serious river here.

8 thoughts on “Usti is flooding”

  1. That’s right. Water that falls as rain or snow has evaporated from the oceans. Higher temperature implies more evaporation.

  2. “The emergency system seems pretty good. Everyone knows what to do, things are being done.”
    The advantages of not being in the UK. Where it would have been “the wrong sort of rain”.

  3. “Higher temperature implies more evaporation”: ah but I remember the early Global Warming papers – the warming was almost all to occur at high latitudes, at night, in winter. Since “the science is settled” that must still be true. So, no, it can’t explain soggy Junes in Central Europe. Nor could extra evaporation be explained by higher landsurface temperatures when the ocean surface temperatures have hardly budged.

    So you’ve failed your exam: you’ll have to resit in September.

  4. “the warming was almost all to occur at high latitudes, at night, in winter.”

    So… the extra heat was going to remain stationary while the planet rotated beneath it? Interesting.

    And despite the CO2 being emitted at various latitudes, was the CO2 going to migrate to the poles? or was it going to have no effect at lower latitudes? and why?

    Can you point to a source?

    ” Since

  5. “Since “the science is settled” that must still be true. “

    “the science is settled” is a shorthand way of saying that most scientists in this area agree that a) the planet is warming, b) anthropogenic emissions of CO2 have caused this.

    “the science is settled” does NOT mean “early papers cracked the whole thing, including all details, and should be treated as if written on tablets of stone.” You’ve set up and then knocked down a straw man.

  6. From my favourite joke site…

    Fair play to the Germans for joining in with the 60th Anniversary celebrations of the Dambusters, and arranging for Dresden to be flooded.

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