Timmy elsewhere

At the ASI.

Don’t believe the figures on inequality of life expectancy at birth. That’s not what is being measured.

2 thoughts on “Timmy elsewhere”

  1. You’ve got this wrong Tim. “Life Expectancy” is not calculated in the way you think it is.

    define:
    Palive : probability of a person being alive at age X
    Pdying: probability of a person alive at age X being dead by age X+deltaX

    Calculate Pdying for each X by dividing (the number of deaths between ages X and X+deltaX) by (the population aged between X and X+deltaX)

    Calculate Palive by multiplying together (1-Pdying) for all ages up to X

    Calculate Life Expectancy as the Sum of (X times Palive times Pdying) for all X.

    (In practice there’s some curve fitting done to create a continuous distribution. But that’s the general idea.)

    You’re right that migration makes life expectancy comparisons less meaningful. But wrong about how bent they are.

  2. @ PaulB
    I cannot see any sign that Tim has got it wrong (where does he define life expectancy?) and a <3% difference between the healthiest and unhealthiest areas is hardly headline news. We are repeatedly told that social class accounts for a bigger differential (although most of the allegedly supporting data merely shows that if you are so sick that you are approaching death you cannot earn enough money for the modern ONS to categorise you as middle class even if you are the youngest son of a peer with two Oxbridge degrees).

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