Timmy elsewhere

At the ASI.

Having a look at that paper that cl;aims there will be 22,000 more murders as a result of climate change.

Erm, no, there won’t be.

18 thoughts on “Timmy elsewhere”

  1. So Much For Subtlety

    The period 1974-1998 saw some warming. It also saw the second half of a massive rise in crime (after 1964), and then a massive drop in crime in the US.

    Various explanations have been offered for this from abortion, to mass imprisonment, to more policemen, to better policing, to the decline of crack use and even immigration.

    I fail to see any link to climate at all.

  2. I’d say that figure was way conservative..
    When the Catastrophic Anthropomorphic Climate Change (CACC) bubble finally implodes, there will be vengeance

    That was what you meant. wasn’t it?

  3. The drop in violent crime is probably down to 2 things: abortion (whether you think it right or wrong, there are just fewer feral underclass men 18-30 around these days) and lead toxicity. We’ve taken the lead out of the paint and the petrol – less environmental exposure to lead – less propensity to violence.

    We’d better invent some new crimes to justify keeping all those plods in bacon butties.

  4. I’ve no evidence for this but my personal theory is that economic growth has rendered most crime unprofitable. Even drug dealing doesn’t make much money for your average low level dealer compared to flipping burgers.

    Our generous welfare system (love it or hate it) probably has an effect too: why go out and mug someone if you can get paid to stay home and watch telly?

  5. Sebastian – “there are just fewer feral underclass men 18-30 around these days”

    Are there though?

    I was under the impression the underclass was growing, not shrinking. The welfare state financially incentivises fatherless homes, so we have lots more of them. Plus we benefit from immigration from all the wonderfully diverse parts of the world where slitting a girl’s throat because she left the house unaccompanied by a male relative is considered reasonable chastisement.

    Would be interesting to see some stats on this. I reckon, based on no evidence, that the feral underclass are somewhat less likely to avail themselves of free abortion services than are people who work for a living.

    Because children are profitable if you’re a single mum with no intention of working, and a crying, sleep-depriving hole in your pocket to everyone else.

  6. MattyJ – something I’ve often wondered about when the police trumpet the latest seizure of £X million worth of drugs.

    Either they’re insanely expensive to make, or the profit margins are stratospheric, or the police are talking bollocks to make themselves look good.

    I don’t think we have many drug lords living it large like Pablo Escobar. For the vast majority of drug sellers, it’s a fairly low paying side job to help fund their own habit. If they work hard at it they might afford a BMW with darkened windows. But so can a regional sales manager for an average firm.

    I’d be surprised if most drugs were highly expensive to produce and smuggle into the UK, given how popular they are, and given all the cheap ways you can get high you’d think substitution effects would bite hard. There just aren’t enough City traders, Co-op Bank executives and Blue Peter presenters around to make a mass market for ridiculously dear drugs.

    So I suspect Plod is lying.

  7. There may be 22,000 murders as a result of climate change if I can get to that many free-loading bastards before I’m caught…

  8. Drugs are cheap to make, it’s the supply chain that’s expensive. The Candy Machine by Tom Feiling is a good read about the cocaine smuggling business.

    And yes, the police use some “creative” numbers to make their busts sound ever more impressive.

    Of course a record seizure of drug x actually means they’re losing the war on drug x. If they intercept a 100kg shipment of cocaine you can bet that the same supplier got two other 100kg shipments through. They assume that they’re going to lose a few so they hedge by splitting the shipments up. If the shipments seized are increasing in size then the total volume must also be going up.

  9. Sebastian has hit a critical factor with his comment on lead exposure; an NBER working paper summary concludes “The author concludes that lead’’s effect on violent crime may be “just the tip of the iceberg. Increases in impulsivity, aggression, and ADHD can affect many other behaviors such as substance abuse, suicide, teenage pregnancy, poor academic performance, poor labor market performance, and divorce,” suggesting that environmental policy can have far reaching effects on social outcomes.”

    R4 is reporting the lowest ever teenage pregnancy figures as being the results of Labour’s political initiatives; it may actually have as much to do with the switch to unleaded petrol. There is already an established correlation between the timing of a nation’s banning of leaded petrol and the subsequent dramatic decreases in violent crime.

  10. BiS: Kilo of coca leaves would set you back about 3 dollars American

    Is that FOB Medellin?
    Or CIF Downham Market?

  11. So true… I just spent a month in The Philippines. After a few weeks if it dropped to 20 degs in the evening I was putting on a jacket. Some of my local friends were wearing jumpers on a ‘cold’ 25 deg day. It’s remarkable quite how quickly you get used to it.

  12. and of course the question is why don’t the oh so clever peer reviewers pick up this obvious point… it’s like they have an agenda or something??

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *