Timmy elsewhereMarch 13, 2014 Tim WorstallTimmy Elsewhere3 CommentsAt the ASI. Nef: not economics frankly. previousRitchie’s new economicsnextRitchie: Gimmie your tax money! 3 thoughts on “Timmy elsewhere” bloke in spain March 13, 2014 at 9:21 am Is there any problem with the NEF’s thesis? Economic forecasting is no better than climate forecasting. I’ll give them that. It’s for the same reason. Both are trying to describe what are chaotic processes over short time intervals. It’s possible to discern long term trends. But forecasting implies timeliness. And it’s working in the foam of individual events combine to produce long term trends. It’s not even hard to see why economic forecasting might underperform climate. At least with climate, it’s a purely observational process. But with economic forecasting one’s constantly having to deal with the effects of the last round of economic forecasting. If a period of contraction in the economy had been presumed, but failed to materialise, the steps taken to alleviate that are now acting to overstimulate the economy. No doubt the measures taken to cool it will hit at the same time as the growth spurt runs out. So, surely, the conclusion is; planning economies isn’t something you want to do too much of. The NEF’s buddies in the climate scare business certainly holler & shout enough when anyone suggests messing with the climate by seeding the oceans with iron, or similar. You can’t be sure of the effects, they scream. Seems sensible advice. Ironman March 13, 2014 at 3:05 pm If a financial advisor came to you and starting talking about ‘saving for a rainy day’ you’d take it as a figure of speech. If he came up and said “You need to to save for a rainy day. Trust me I’m a fellow of the New Economics Foundation.” Well, I for one would start running. Bloke in Costa Rica March 13, 2014 at 5:11 pm It’s not the New Economics Foundation, guys. It’s the new economics foundation. Their failure to capitalise proper nouns may seem a minor point but it tells us so, so much. Leave a Reply Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment Name * Email * Website Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.