In all 38,700 people voted – 53 per cent of those who could have cast their ballots, down from 74 per cent in 2010.
The Conservatives’ candidate Robert Jenrick won with 17,431 votes or 44.9 per cent of the ballot, ahead of Ukip’s Roger Helmer on 10,028 votes, or 25.8 per cent.
And they’re not going to be able to put that sort of effort into a single seat at the GE.
As a rough pencil sketch UKIP on 15% or less nationally doesn’t change all that much. A few marginals will move one way or the other (don’t forget, UKIP does not draw all, perhaps even the majority, of its support from the Tory vote). If the national vote is above 20% then merry hell breaks loose. How FPTP works…..