I don’t think so Telegraph, I don’t think so

Britain’s economy has finally passed its pre-2008 financial crisis peak, figures released this week are expected to show.

GDP dropped more than 7pc from a high of £392bn to less than £365bn in early 2009, and it has struggled to reach that level ever since.

But estimates due on Friday from the Office for National Statistics are predicted to show that in the second quarter of 2014 it expanded beyond the pre-crisis peak, rising to just more than £393bn.

Those are quarterly figures, GDP is normally reported as an annual figure.


4 thoughts on “I don’t think so Telegraph, I don’t think so”

  1. Someone trusts the seasonal adjustment a lot. If you look at it on a four quarter moving average basis, we’re about 0.7% off the peak in Q2 2008 assuming we get a 393 billion number for Q2. Peak to trough, on a four quarter moving average basis we see a fall of 6.7%, against a quarterly peak to trough of 7.2%.

  2. And it’s total GDP, not GDP per capita. It’s easy to grow GDP if you keep importing hard workers from poorer countries in southern & eastern Europe.

  3. Andrew M

    To be fair, they’re coming here because of our growth rate, especially compared with their own Eurozone zombieland.

  4. Since the 2008 figures includes a few £billion of totally imaginary bank profits (ignoring tens or hundreds of £billions of unrecognised losses) any comparison, whether from annual or quarterly ONS data , is pretty close to meaningless.
    The 2007 figures are as straight as a normal corkcrew.

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