Some people are very hopeful indeed

A company that wants to be a competitor in the scandium market.


Capital cost estimate for the Project is US$77.4 million,
Operating cost estimate for the Project is US$636/kg scandium oxide,
Oxide product volume is 35,975 kg per year,

Current market price is about $3,000 per kg so this looks absolutely great, doesn’t it?

$50 million gross margin a year!

Except, despite what the economic models say about perfect competition and no one producer influences the price, this isn’t actually so. The global annual market is some 15,000 kg a year at present.

Hand up everyone who thinks that producing twice actual consumption a year, over and above current production, is going to lead to the price being maintained.

The price assumption in the PEA is US$2,000 per kilogram (kg), as an average price covering all product sold, over various product grades.

Not going to happen, is it? Scandium oxide was $300 a kg a decade ago. Sure, demand is up since then. But not enough to absorb this volume.

4 thoughts on “Some people are very hopeful indeed”

  1. No….My production starts rather earlier than their’s does so the price will already be changing before they get financed.

  2. You scandium oligarchs are just trying to scare off potential competitors. Everyone knows scandium prices are fixed by the Cartel.

  3. bloke (not) in spain

    Mmmmm….Didn’t you do this with light a few days ago? Demand has risen & price has risen. You could be at a point where an increase in supply doesn’t imply much of a reduction in price because there’s a compensating increase in demand. You’ve mentioned, before, possible scandium applications. How many of them are sensitive to a price around the current level?

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