Whereas Labour’s Scotland-wide vote drops by 16 points, it falls by 22 points in these constituencies while the SNP surges by 26. That combination is sufficient to wipe out majorities that were always assumed to be impregnable, and Scottish Labour’s Westminster caucus is left shrivelling to just three MPs.
“We are prospectively looking at the collapse of citadels that have always been Labour since the 1920s,” said Curtice. “That will seem incredible to some in England, but to those of us who paid close attention to Alex Salmond’s 2011 landslide at Holyrood, it would merely be the next chapter in the political transformation of a nation.”
And with Ukip hauling off some of those English citadels that’ll be a real mauling for the Labour Party.
Leading to two entirely desirable things. Firstly, the realignment of the British left. The people who will really get killed by this are the professional political class: the Islingtonistas. Which is great.
And secondly, if the SNP is going to be the majority party at Westminster for Scotland then we’re going to get an awful lot closer to a West Lothian solution. The reason Labour doesn’t want one is because of those Scottish seats: they could, theoretically, hold power in the UK but not England. But if that problem goes away, and the SNP won’t give a fig about the problem, then we might actually be able to negotiate and English votes for English laws solution.