Can’t wait for it to happen

Whereas Labour’s Scotland-wide vote drops by 16 points, it falls by 22 points in these constituencies while the SNP surges by 26. That combination is sufficient to wipe out majorities that were always assumed to be impregnable, and Scottish Labour’s Westminster caucus is left shrivelling to just three MPs.

“We are prospectively looking at the collapse of citadels that have always been Labour since the 1920s,” said Curtice. “That will seem incredible to some in England, but to those of us who paid close attention to Alex Salmond’s 2011 landslide at Holyrood, it would merely be the next chapter in the political transformation of a nation.”


And with
Ukip hauling off some of those English citadels that’ll be a real mauling for the Labour Party.

Leading to two entirely desirable things. Firstly, the realignment of the British left. The people who will really get killed by this are the professional political class: the Islingtonistas. Which is great.

And secondly, if the SNP is going to be the majority party at Westminster for Scotland then we’re going to get an awful lot closer to a West Lothian solution. The reason Labour doesn’t want one is because of those Scottish seats: they could, theoretically, hold power in the UK but not England. But if that problem goes away, and the SNP won’t give a fig about the problem, then we might actually be able to negotiate and English votes for English laws solution.

27 thoughts on “Can’t wait for it to happen”

  1. So Much for Subtlety

    The people who will really get killed by this are the professional political class: the Islingtonistas. Which is great.

    The Islingtonistas run all three of the main parties. They are not going to be killed off. What we are seeing is the widespread rejection of all three Lib-Dem parties by large numbers of people. The voters want an actual choice. The end game is for all three of them to merge – as if anyone can tell the difference between Cameron, Clegg and Miliband anyway. At most, some peons at the bottom of all three parties will have to go back to their PR jobs while some of the c*nts at the national level get safe Quangos or a UN job or the like – see Blair and Miliband Major.

  2. The SNP have their own equivalent of the Islingtonistas. I can only attribute their newfound popularity north of the border to epic drunkeness.

    Most likely the nats will do a deal with Miliband that stitches up the English. Which will only make UKIP that much more popular in England.

    It’s fun seeing the wheels fall off the Labour bandwagon. Ed Miliband perpetually looks like a swotty schoolboy who knows he’s in for a kicking from the bigger lads as soon as the dinner bell goes.

  3. Matthew Parris suggested in yesterday’s Times that the Liberal Metropolitan Elite needed to fight back, curtail the mob: ‘I don’t believe in democracy unlimited. Democracy needs restraints, baffles and pauses for though…’

  4. “Most likely the nats will do a deal with Miliband that stitches up the English. Which will only make UKIP that much more popular in England.”

    I could see them going for that – long term, EVEL now seems a political inevitability. This could be Labour’s last chance to rule England, and given that they seem to have no fundamental aim any more than to be in power over as much UK territory as possible for as long as possible (hence the devolution model they implemented), I’m sure they’d sign some grubby deal with the Scottish Nationalsocialist Party to have a last fling.

    However, such a pact would be so grubby that only the Grauniad and the Mirror would be crass enough to defend it, and it would certainly fuel the fires of English home rule.

  5. bloke (not) in spain

    Salmond will concede English votes for English matters. But he will extract a price. And the price will be high.

  6. … leading to eventual rebirth of the Islingtonistas, for which read centrists, for only from the centre can they ever command a majority of English votes. The same will prove true for the Tories. We are headed into a Canadian-type loop of fragmentation followed by the reassertion, because there is nothing else, of the centre of gravity. It might take a couple of cycles.

  7. But the data from by-elections shows UKIP cause considerably more damage to the Conservative vote than Labour.

    Most likely we’ll have a Labour/SNP possible LD alliance at the next election.

  8. The Other Bloke in Italy

    The Nats would happily work with bloody Labour: They are the same sort of people, and the reason some of us ceased to be Scots nationalists years ago. Sodding fascisti.

  9. So Much for Subtlety

    The Other Bloke in Italy – “The Nats would happily work with bloody Labour: They are the same sort of people, and the reason some of us ceased to be Scots nationalists years ago. Sodding fascisti.”

    Being the same sort of people probably means they can’t work together. They are competing for the same seats. The bottom line for the Labour Party is that they need their Scottish seats. They can’t hold power without them. That means they have to throw every piece of mud they have available to them. Coalition is hard once you have accused someone, quietly, of being a child molester.

    The same is true of UKIP and the Tories. They will fight each other for the same southern English seats. They can’t then turn around and pretend they did not mean it.

    The Lib-Dems will disappear. They will no longer be significant. The Greens may rise to take their place, but I am hoping not.

    So where does that leave possible coalitions? UKIP/SNP? Possible as they don’t compete with each other much, but ideologically a bit of a stretch. UKIP/Labour? Even more of an ideological chasm. Tory/SNP? I would not rule it out but it doesn’t seem likely. Although I bet Cameron would love the idea. So the obvious one is the Red-Blue option of a Tory-Labour coalition.

  10. “Firstly, the realignment of the British left.” And the right too, please. Whigs vs Tories is what I want to see.

  11. Part of the Nats plan is to annoy the English so they aren’t prepared to make compromises to keep the union. So SNP MPs voting for cuts to English budgets while demanding protection for Scottish budgets as a price for keeping Labour in No10 is exactly what they want, especially if the Tories are the largest party in England.

  12. It’s a disaster.

    The SNP hate the English even more than the Labour elite.

    They’ll have a coalition that will spend all its waking hours kicking the English and all its sleeping ones dreaming about it.

  13. “They’ll have a coalition that will spend all its waking hours kicking the English and all its sleeping ones dreaming about it.”

    This.

    And why the hell not? If EVEL is now seen as inevitable, they probably think why not have a bit of racist english-bashing for as long as it lasts?

  14. “the reason some of us ceased to be Scots nationalists years ago. Sodding fascist.” I recently met an old friend I’ve not seen for a few years. He hated the referendum Yes campaigners so much that he plans to retire furth of Scotland. What can you say?

    (“England needs British immigrants” is what I actually said, of course.)

  15. abacab – “However, such a pact would be so grubby that only the Grauniad and the Mirror would be crass enough to defend it”

    And the Beeb.

    “they probably think why not have a bit of racist english-bashing for as long as it lasts?”

    The question is, what will they demand of Labour to prop them up at Westminster? They had their referendum only five minutes ago… surely they can’t expect another one?

    Public spending pork is a given. Maybe corporation tax to be devolved, so they can wreak havoc on Britain’s monetary union?

    Maybe one of their other hobby horses, like scrapping Trident?

    dearieme – I feel sorry for anybody still left in Scotland who has the ambition to make something of himself, other than to be yet another fattened piglet snorting at the public trough.

    In the “fairer” society the majority in the Scottish Parliament dream about, anybody in the private sector earning over about £40k is going to be redefined as “rich” and then hammered.

    I’d start packing if I were them.

  16. It’d be truly fascinating to see a ZaNu-SNP coalition in charge. How long before there was an independence referendum in England?

  17. I suggest that the commentators above consider the effect of the oil slump on the Scottish electorate. The sight of Aberdeen becoming a ghost town will have a salutary effect upon them as the way to a Scot’s heart has ever been through his wallet. Nationalism won’t be such a prize worth having come next May.

  18. @smfs

    ” Tory/SNP? I would not rule it out but it doesn’t seem likely. Although I bet Cameron would love the idea.”

    I think it was Nick Drew or one of the other C&W who suggested a Confidence and Supply agreement. Sounds plausible although difficult to see any Jocks voluntarily working with the Tories.

    “So the obvious one is the Red-Blue option of a Tory-Labour coalition.”

    If there’s one thing that unites the Labour Party its a visceral hatred of the Tories so I can’t see that happening. Look how Labour turned on the Lib Dems just for doing what they said they would, go with the largest party.

    They’ve all got themselves in to such a mess by defining themselves so tightly its hard to see any party even talking to another in public, let along coming to an agreement.

    FPTP is not designed for this many parties.

  19. I’m with KR Lohse above. The SNP have been made to look pretty stupid with their pre-referendum predictions as to the oil price and resulting tax revenue figures over the next few years. If there were a new independence vote tomorrow all the No camp would have to do is print the predictions vs the current out-turn and keep asking what the SNP plan to cut to make ends meet. I think the oil price drop will have been a bit of a wake up call to many of the gung-ho independence brigade.

    Its entirely possible that the SNP will sweep Scotland in 2015, but be further from independence than ever, as the electorate have just had a very close call with the reality of what independence could mean – cuts in public spending, real ones, not pretendy Coalition ‘cuts’ that the Left are portraying as akin to the killing of the firstborn. I think the Scottish electorate are much more likely to want to hang on to nurse for some time to come.

  20. “The question is, what will they demand of Labour to prop them up at Westminster? They had their referendum only five minutes ago… surely they can’t expect another one?”

    I reckon they’d want devolution of taxation power. And lashings of English money, of course.

    I suspect that Labour would give them whatever the hell they wanted at Westminster.

  21. So Much for Subtlety

    MC – “Parris is a cunt of the first water, isn’t he?”

    Worse than that really.

    Bloke in Germany – “It’d be truly fascinating to see a ZaNu-SNP coalition in charge. How long before there was an independence referendum in England?”

    Maybe this is the SNP’s new plan? They could not convince the Scots to leave, so now they will irritate the English until they do. It has the benefits of keeping the Crown, the pound, EU membership and all the other stuff Salmond promised to keep. So it could work for them.

    Bloke with a Boat – “Sounds plausible although difficult to see any Jocks voluntarily working with the Tories.”

    They would work with anyone I think, south of the border. As long as it meant more money coming their way. The whole of Scottish politics is determined by a dislike of the English and a desire for money from London. Which means that both sides, the Labour Party and the SNP, are “socialist” but actually they are ethnic re-distributionists – taking from English people and giving to Scottish people. If Scotland became independent, one of those parties would have to decide if they wanted to take more money from rich Scots and give it to poor Scots. Either one could fill the gap in the market caused by a lack of a Tory party. Ireland did this – although the split was caused by the Civil War, it evolved into a Left-Right-ish split. At the moment I would put money on the Labour party doing so, but maybe the SNP might be more likely to. The Tories might well woo them over to the Dark Side of fiscal responsibility. Just dress it up as “No True Scotsman Runs a Deficit”.

    “If there’s one thing that unites the Labour Party its a visceral hatred of the Tories so I can’t see that happening. Look how Labour turned on the Lib Dems just for doing what they said they would, go with the largest party.”

    They turned on them because of spite, not principle. I expect a few regret they missed the chance. There has been a long standing visceral hate for the Tories but that will shift to UKIP. In a UKIP-Tory fight, Labour ain’t going to back UKIP. So the Labour leadership could sell the Tories as the moderate stump while the Toff Extremists all went to UKIP.

    “They’ve all got themselves in to such a mess by defining themselves so tightly its hard to see any party even talking to another in public, let along coming to an agreement.”

    The narcissism of small differences. I am sure they will talk. Ed Miliband will have to go after the election. So will Clegg. But their successors will be more reasonable. After all, is there any important figure in any of the three main parties you could not see joining at least one or more of the other two? Nicholas Soames was obviously never going to be a Labour man. Nor Tony Benn join the Tories. But Hilary Benn? Any of the tokens Cameron has foisted on local parties?

    “FPTP is not designed for this many parties.”

    So some of them have to go.

    Jim – “Its entirely possible that the SNP will sweep Scotland in 2015, but be further from independence than ever, as the electorate have just had a very close call with the reality of what independence could mean”

    But it is like the Good Friday Agreements. The referendum has made voting for the SNP safe. They won’t be taking Scotland to another vote any time soon. So the SNP will probably win in Scotland, and then they will have to see if they can be a competent national government. Labour will turn out to be the big loser from the referendum as the Scots always voted tactically – SNP locally, Labour nationally. Now they can vote for a party that will really fight for more money from London.

  22. If the SNP are seen to support / prop up a tory government in any way shape or form, they’ll lose all their voters to labour again.

    It won’t happen. Some sort of ’emergency’ budget where labour and tories meet in the middle and whip their MP’s to vote it through, followed by another GE is more likely.

    The SNP will prop up a labour government, but will labour gain enough seats to make up for the ones they’ve lost to the SNP to be in a position to do that? I’m not convinced they will.

    It looks like the maths might well be that only tory/SNP or tory/lab can pass a Finance Act.

  23. So Much for Subtlety

    StevenL – “If the SNP are seen to support / prop up a tory government in any way shape or form, they’ll lose all their voters to labour again.”

    All the Scottish voter wants is cash from London. If the SNP manages to bring even more of it back home, they won’t care who is in power in London.

    “The SNP will prop up a labour government, but will labour gain enough seats to make up for the ones they’ve lost to the SNP to be in a position to do that? I’m not convinced they will.”

    The SNP cannot prop up a Labour government because it means Labour pork in seats the SNP wants to win. They can support a Tory government because that means pork for the south-east where the SNP fields no candidates. Why would the SNP vote for buying Labour votes in Scotland?

    “It looks like the maths might well be that only tory/SNP or tory/lab can pass a Finance Act.”

    Either of these are possible although I think neither is plausible. We may have minority government. But after a few years, the end result will be a Cameron-Clegg-Miliband coalition vs a series of nationalist parties – the SNP with UKIP eventually evolving into a English nationalist party.

    The question is which of them will be on the Left.

  24. @So Much

    I’ve lived in Scotland for two and a half years now. One reason labour are suffering so much is because they shared a platform with the tories in the referendum. Most scots hate them, they are pure political poison, and there is no way the SNP will help them stay in control of Westminster.

    More Scots than you would think believe the SNP position that Scotland pays more tax to London than it gets back in spending. Neither the tories nor labour have spoken the truth on this – i.e. that the SNP figures don’t include non-attributed spending such as debt interest, defence, EU contributions etc.

    The UK Finance Act sets the Scottish budget so the SNP will vote on it. I can’t see them voting for a tory budget. I think they’d rather leave no option other than no budget or a tory / labour agreement of sorts, which will help them get what they really want – Scottish independence.

    They can’t get independence without winning landslides in Scotland and they can’t win landslides unless they hate the tories, which they do, the SNP is built on, and united by a dislike of the English and in particular of English conservatives.

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