Err, no Polly, no

There is no crystal ball, no pollster or bookie reckless enough to call the result of this most unpredictable election. Even money is the best you’ll get on Ed Miliband or David Cameron to be next prime minister. Labour stays ahead, but who creeps over the line first depends on too many variables – who votes where for the SNP, Ukip, Plaid or Green, how many votes will be wasted or not cast, leaving the country’s future in the hands of some 200,000 or so waverers in key marginals.

Just no. Those minor parties mean that it won’t all be left in the hands of those 200 k in the marginals. If half a million in the Labour Scottish ghettos move over to the SNP then what happens in the English marginals doesn’t matter all that much. The UKIP vote is running at what, 3.5 million people on 15% (15% of those likely to vote, not of the electorate)?

the entire lesson here is that this is shaping up to be an election which isn’t decided on those 200k in the marginals……

7 thoughts on “Err, no Polly, no”

  1. Polly’s saying the next election is unpredictable because of all the new parties and then tries to predict it using data from old elections which only had two parties.

  2. Polly’s saying the next election is unpredictable, but the economy is predictable – via central planning.

    I would have thought the economy was more complex than an election. After all, an economy is millions of people voting continuously on everything.

  3. All I’ve ever heard emanating from the liberal metropolitan elite is the hissing slippery wet extrusions of verbal diarrhoea, Pollyanna is their champion.

  4. @Stuck-Record

    That is a very obvious but very simple analogy that I will steal for use in pub arguments. Thank you.

  5. I used to enjoy reading the old Fisking Pollyanna blog. Sadly, but understandably, the blogger gave up because Polly continuously spouted so much rubbish it became a bit boring.

    Thus, as the late lamented Bobsheadrevisted observed, it became a bit like pissing on a cripple…

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