That rape culture

Hmm.

This report uses the National Crime Victimization
Survey (NCVS) to compare the rape and sexual assault
victimization of female college students and nonstudents.
For the period 1995–2013—
„„ The rate of rape and sexual assault was 1.2 times higher
for nonstudents (7.6 per 1,000) than for students (6.1 per
1,000).

“One in five”, eh?

35 thoughts on “That rape culture”

  1. Dave has been awafully quiet on the old Broculture.

    My guess is that he has been kidnapped by a frat as part of an initiation thing, and is currently being held incommunicado under their beer pong table, naked and trussed up like a turkey, with an orange in his mouth.

  2. Science, maths and other objectivity seeking epistemologies are male by nature, and reinforce the patriarchy. This is why women require their own epistemology predicated on the female subjective. Which by some voodoo I cannot quite fathom, itself then becomes the objective, though not in name, since that would be harmful to women (since “objectivity [is] the epistemological stance of which objectification is the social process”).

  3. Er, those are annual rates. So you need 26 years of being at risk of rape for 1 in 5 women to be raped.

    Which actually sounds plausible – if the ~7.6 per 1000 per year figure is correct.

  4. I can kinda believe the 1 in 5 as a lifetime risk. Obviously the proportion of women completing college who have been raped should be far lower than that. I suspect that there has been some disingenuous mixing of statistics going on, rather than total making of stuff up.

  5. Yes, the process is easy and is as follows:

    1. Produce a ‘report’ which details the number of incidents ranging from a wolf whistle up to actual rape.

    2. Add all of the numbers up, comes to 1 in 5.

    3. Release report to the media in a blaze of publicity claiming 1 in 5 women are raped or sexually assaulted. Hide in the report that your definition of ‘sexual assault’ covers wolf-whistling and men calling women ‘love’.

    4. The media ignores the details and just trumpets the headline.

    5. A month later the meme “1 in 5 women are raped at college” is firmly established and questioning it is akin to Hollocaust denial.

  6. BiG

    Actually the rate for students is just 0.61%, meaning a 32.8 years in college to get to 1 in 5. Since US colleges are 4 year (and some are only in for associates or 2 years, but some do grad degrees for more years), the actual likely figure is 4 x 0.61% or 2.44% or a one in 41 rate, assuming that the victims are all different in each year. Even if we adjust for underreporting, I find it difficult to believe that the rate is 1 in 5 or eight times higher.

    Note the lifetime risk is far lower in that the probably of sexual assault is lower outside the student age bracket.

  7. The “Obesity Crisis” is founded on a similar deception. Most of the people “overweight or obese” will be slightly outside the ‘normal’ BMI range, but will be grouped together with the seriously overweight to produce a figure such as “60% of the population are overweight or obese”. Soon the “overweight” bit is dropped and you get politicians and the media making ridiculous claims such as “60% of the population are obese”, despite the very obvious evidence against it surrounding all of us.

  8. @ken,

    The difference between 0.61%/year for students and 0.76%/year is trivial, in fact, meaningless. Either number, if they are indeed good estimates of the annual risk, are consistent with a (ball-park) 20% lifetime risk of rape. Obviously the risk of rape changes by age bracket (and probably peaks at student age).

  9. No, this is rate of rape and sexual assault (which includes threats of rape and sexual assault). Rape rate is one third of this number. 2.0/000

  10. As Ken hinted, the 1 in 5 rate is the supposed “actual” rate, requiring both hideous under-reporting (which they are addressing by insisting that accusations of a huge amount of not-rape {e.g a subsequently repudiated snog} and not-rationally-rape {i.e. both have significant drink taken, woman, unlike man, bears no responsibility for her consequent actions} are, or should be treated identically to rape and (this being the main current focus) no accusation of rape should ever be regarded as no-rape-happened.

    I almost feel a state diagram coming on.

  11. BiG

    The 20% is supposed to be the risk of being raped or assaulted in the time a female is at college. This isnt the lifetime risk.

    However, there are alternate surveys mentioned by the above paper.

    This is the Campus Sexual Assault Survey (CSA).
    https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/221153.pdf

    As noted in Tim’s original, the CSA does not reach the criminal test threshold and instead poses questions along public health lines. It finds that 19% of women encounter sexual assault since entering college.

    See also

    https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/182369.pdf

  12. @BiG

    There is no way that one in five women who go to college will be raped in their lifetimes. It doesn’t pass the common sense test, never mind what the stats show.

  13. Ken,

    > “assuming that the victims are all different in each year”

    Is this a safe assumption to make? On the one hand, once you’ve been raped you’ll take extra care to ensure it doesn’t happen again; but on the other hand, you might just be bad at recognising dangerous situations.

  14. bloke (not) in spain

    “There is no way that one in five women who go to college will be raped in their lifetimes. It doesn’t pass the common sense test, never mind what the stats show.
    Mmmm…
    Bearing in mind university educations seem to be based around eliminating common sense… you could see how a high incidence of rape amongst college educated women might come about.

    “If you behave in that way, then you raise the chances of this happeni….”
    “But this is wrong! WRONG! Women should be empowered!”

    Er, yes But you can see how well this strategy is going to work in the real world, can’t you?

  15. @Interested. I do disagree. I think a 20% lifetime risk of “rape or sexual assault” is highly plausible. The problem is of course definitional. Depending on how widely you define “sexual assault” for example, you could probably get that figure closer to 100%. Hell, I’m male and I’ve been sexually assaulted (mildly I should add) – by female perps!

    Don’t fall into the trap of thinking “this is not plausible among the circles I move in”. It might not be, but there are a lot of other people out there with different lives from the ones you know. It’s the same positive reinforcement phenomenon as the euroskeptics believing they are a majority (which they are clearly not) just because the majority of people they encounter are.

    The survey on which the “1 in 5” claim (of r/se while at college) I believe the authors have distanced themselves from that claim being made on the basis of their research.

  16. Incidentally, I only know one person who I know to be a rape victim. There is therefore probably more than one other victim among my circle who have not told me about it – because women don’t tend to tell men (or anyone) about this kind of thing.

  17. @BiG

    ‘@Interested. I do disagree. I think a 20% lifetime risk of “rape or sexual assault” is highly plausible. ‘

    I said ‘will be raped’.

  18. I’ve met a couple of women who have been raped. They were both fat, and I assumed that this was a defence mechanism to make themselves unattractive to future rapists. Of course, I’ve met thousands of women, fat and thin, who haven’t told me whether they have been raped or not.

    Anecdote apart, let’s look at the university applications in US. If the 1 in 5 figure is correct there are four possible reactions:
    1. Apply to single sex university. There’s no evidence that applications to co-eds have declined while Bryn Mawr is swamped.
    2. It’s worth the risk for the chance of higher pay / finding an alpha male
    3. The figures are bullshit
    4. Rape isn’t that big a deal. (And my Mum and Dad agree!)

    My money’s on answer 3. Of course, if we were talking about universities in Johannesburg, Mosul and oints east, my money would be on answer 2.

    Don’t get me wrong. Rape is traumatic and a serious crime. But blurring the lines with an unwelcome grope does not help the one-in-five cause. Then you get option 4.

  19. Don’t get me wrong. Rape is traumatic and a serious crime. But blurring the lines with an unwelcome grope does not help the one-in-five cause. Then you get option 4.

    Add to that the “too drunk to know what was going on, but went along with it anyway”. Many girls I knew in university at some point got totally trolleyed and and woke up beside a strange bloke with only a hazy recollection of what happened. None of them thought this was particularly traumatic, let alone rape. Whether they were embarrassed depended on the physical attractiveness of the bloke.

  20. @BiF

    That’s one of the weirder posts on here!

    What does this mean:

    ‘4. Rape isn’t that big a deal. (And my Mum and Dad agree!)’

    Are you the product of your father raping your mum? I only ask as that’s how it sounds.

  21. Andrew M

    You can extrapolate the overlap from the CSA survey – it reduces the number slightly. Note that if we use the 5 year average for college used in the third survey NCWSV, the number rises.

    The 1 in 5 stat really relies on a very broad definition of sexual assault. If we look at the CSA (similar numbers in the NCWSV) among the reasons for not reporting the assault 55.6% of the forced sexual assaults were reported as “did not think it was serious enough to report” and 36.8% “Unclear that it was a crime or that harm was intended”, For incapacitated sexual assaults these numbers are 66.5% and 35.9% respectively. (note that respondents can give multiple reasons). Thus the higher criminal standard NCVS in Tim’s original report shows a rate that is one-eighth that of the broader CSA or NCWSV. Just by excluding the “not a crime” element this reduces the discrepancy by a factor of three.

  22. Inty

    I can’t think why you find result 4 hard to understand.

    If people think they are going to be raped but STILL want to go to the rapist college, that must mean that they have discounted the seriousness of rape somewhat, doesn’t it?

    Anyway, have a good weekend with your torturing.

  23. bif’s post is a variant on that state diagram I was thinking of.

    Nobody rational (well, nobody female?) would “choose” option 4 – and certainly not anybody’s (female’s) parents.

    But, as bif says, it has to be one of the options. Options 1, 2 & 4 are the reactions to not believing Option 3.

    It’s standard risk management stuff:

    Avoid: Option 1; Accept (on a risk managed basis): Option 2; Ignore: Option 4.

    Obviously, you could also transfer the risk and send somebody to tape the lectures and ask your questions for you. And Option 3 is the equivalent of calling your risk manager a paranoid idiot and throwing them out of the meeting.

  24. “The 1 in 5 stat really relies on a very broad definition of sexual assault.”

    It is not a “very broad” definition of “rape”. It is a false and deceitful one. Crafted as propaganda to serve a poisonous cause.

  25. @Interested, yes, I know. “20% of women who went to college will be raped (or sexually assaulted) during their lifetimes”. I don’t find that statement completely implausible.

  26. I can kinda believe the 1 in 5 as a lifetime risk.

    I’m not so sure. The opening of the Wikipedia (I know, but they give their source) page on “Rape in the United States”:

    Nearly 90,000 people reported being raped in the United States in 2008. There is an arrest rate of 25%.[1] According to the National Crime Victimization Survey by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, 39,590 men and 164,240 women were victims of rape, attempted rape, or sexual assault in 2008.[2]

    At about 1.9 million women being born a year, it’s about a 1 in 11 chance. And that 164K number above is not just rape, but attempted rape and whatever they consider sexual assault.

  27. Not even counting multiple rapes on multiple occasions, it’s possible to regard the one in five as an improvement, historically speaking. (Doesn’t make a good thing, of course.)

    Most of BiG’s 20% rapes would be on hot beaches or around gap year well-digging. To suppose that you are at more risk of rape at UVA than you are on holiday is just nuts.

  28. So Much for Subtlety

    Andrew M – “but on the other hand, you might just be bad at recognising dangerous situations.”

    And you might just be Black. Black men commit a seriously disproportionate number of rapes. Most rapes are intra-racial. Black women are at a very high risk. So are single Mothers. Go figure.

    A lot of people are at a much higher risk for repeated offenses.

    I knew a very nice girl once. Who had a variety of mental health issues. Genuine ones, that is. And unfortunately a lot of friends who took, and occasionally gave her without letting her know, a variety of drugs. She was often in and out of asylums. But of course, what can you say? A high risk given she was also pretty.

  29. I can think of another rape culture, fairly recent in Britain, that much of the Establishment is absolutely desperate to ignore.

  30. @Ted S, thus from your analysis the number of unreported r/se need only be the same as the reported numbers to get to that 1 in 5 figure.

    So still no reason to suspect “1 in 5” is not a plausible, ball-park figure, for lifetime risk.

  31. So Much for Subtlety

    Bloke in Germany – “Er, those are annual rates. So you need 26 years of being at risk of rape for 1 in 5 women to be raped. Which actually sounds plausible – if the ~7.6 per 1000 per year figure is correct.”

    Those are annual rates among college age girls. You would only get a lifetime rape rate like that if the risk remained the same. Which it does not. 20 year old women do not have the same risk as 40 year old women. 40 year old women do not engage in the same high risk behaviours that 20 year old women do – like getting drunk and frat parties.

    The best protection against rape is getting and staying married. Which most women, but few of college age, do.

    Plausible it is not.

  32. So Much for Subtlety

    Bloke in Germany – “So still no reason to suspect “1 in 5″ is not a plausible, ball-park figure, for lifetime risk.”

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/Rolling-Stone-and-the-myth-of-a-rape-epidemic/

    In fact, according to more reliable Department of Justice data, sexual assault has fallen by more than 50 per cent in recent years, to a rate of 1.1 per 1,000 women, with similar rates on and off campus.

    Women as a whole do not have the same rates as college age women. As rape is not about power.

  33. BiG

    The one-in-five stat is not a lifetime number. The way the press and idiot politicians are using it is:

    “When people talk about sexual assault on college campuses, there’s one statistic that comes up again and again: one woman in five is sexually assaulted between the beginning of freshman year and graduation.

    President Obama said it. So did Vice President Joe Biden. And so have many articles about campus sexual assault. That statistic, though, is far from reliable. It comes from a survey conducted at just two universities, and the researcher who led it says it was never intended to be generalized to the national level.”

    http://www.vox.com/2014/12/11/7377055/campus-sexual-assault-statistics

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