But it’s not going to happen.
One out of six species faces extinction as a result of climate change and urgent action must be taken to save large numbers of animals from being wiped out, an analysis said Thursday.
The study, published in the US journal Science, found that a global temperature rise of four degrees Celsius could spell disaster for a huge number of species around the world.
“If we follow our current, business-as-usual trajectory (leading to a 4.3 degree Celsius rise)… climate change threatens one in six species (16 percent),” the study said.
All these fuckers are doing this.
Whether they’re using the older SRES models or the newer ones for AR5, they are always taking the worst projection and then calling that business as usual. And that is wrong.
No, not arguable, not justifiable, simply wrong. All of the projections are, by design, business as usual. All are deliberately constructed so as to be possible results without any governmental action upon emissions or climate change.
So, whichever people are using, A1FI, or the newer RCP 8.5, this is not “business as usual”, this is “one possible business as usual”.
Except that even that’s not quite right. Because we know absolutely that A1FI isn’t going to happen. We’ve already done enough in getting the price of solar down to make sure that neither that not RCP 8.5 are going to happen. And if we accept the projection that solar will be as cheap as coal in the next 5 years (something I am inclined to accept) then neither of those are in fact remotely possible. For we’re just not going to have a coal intensive energy generation system in 2070 if solar is cheaper than coal in 2020.
Yes, 4 oC would be a bad idea. But before we get upset about it we’ve got to work out how likely it is and the truth is, not very.