This is a threat is it?

Or an opportunity?

Spain’s Catalan region will be automatically ejected from the eurozone and its banking system brought to collapse, if voters choose to back independence for the region this weekend, the country’s central bank governor has warned.

It would be actual independence, not a vote for it, which would trigger exit. But still, something desirable happening is a threat these days?

5 thoughts on “This is a threat is it?”

  1. It depends on whether you believe that the new country is viable or not.

    Currently, the Catalans believe that Spain has raped them economically. They are rich and pay into Spain like the Germans into Europe. There are other areas of Spain that do the same, they are not alone.

    The numbers are arguable but since the three-party government prior to this independence furor (nice one, Zapatero, another of your stupidities), Cataluña cannot meet its current expenses and requires constant transfers from the centre.

    Business would switch to Madrid. La Caixa currently Spain’s largest domestic bank has a ficha bancaria in Madrid and can and would switch its headquarters. Business and banks have finally spoken this weekend and they do not like the idea of losing the Brussels cash (and security).

    I am with you in a desire to be rid of the Brussels wastrels, and I believe that an independent Cataluña would be viable, eventually. However, the nationalists probably wouldn’t like the first 10 years. Lots of rich upper-middle class who have made their money and might find that the after-party ain’t as good as they hoped.

    Additionally, they know they aren’t going to get more than 50% of the vote. A majority of seats in the ‘parlament’, yes; a majority of the vote, no. dodgy premis for declaring independence.

    They have managed to polarise Catalan society in a way that it has not been polarised before. Half do not want independence.

    Usual nationalist tools: take the education system, act the victim, manipulate, paint a picture of heaven waiting…etc.

    Personally, I see no advantages in the split for either party. But then I am not a Catalan and I have no romantic love or hatred wound up in what is going to be a difficult moment.

    We live in interesting times.

  2. “European Union vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said any independent region would no longer be subject to EU treaties”

    There is that going for it though. You can see why you would vote “Yes”.

  3. @Rob

    The problem is that you would no longer also be a party to al the trade deals that the EU has struck, leaving you in a economically precarious position. Leaving the EU is not something you wake up on a Monday and decide to do that week.

    That’s one of the many reasons most politicos are against it, they would need to do some real statesmanship. That and all the cosy sinecures on offer after the electorate have kicked you out.

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