A useful insight into real politics

Even so, as late as Saturday morning Johnson was completely undecided and still turning to confidants for advice. What if he gambled all on Brexit but lost? Would he wake up on 24 June to find his ambitions dashed on the rocks of a historic decision and a fatal misreading of public opinion? That was, and is, the nature of the gamble.

It’s absolutely sod all to do with whether Brexit is the right thing for the country or not. It’s to do with whether supporting or opposing it gets one closer to the brass ring of No. 10.

Yes, obviously, we all know that but nice to have it so spelt out.

77 thoughts on “A useful insight into real politics”

  1. I seriously doubt Boris had to think about this. Whichever side Osborne came down on, Boris would be on t’other.

    I don’t think he gives much of a stuff about Cameron, as Cam has said he’ll be out of office before the next election, probably immediately after this referendum. Osborne is the chap he’ll be watching.

    The thing I am interested in (more than Boris, who I think will be the next PM) is Gove. Worst case scenario for him is Chancellor. I suspect that (assuming Leave win, which I’m feeling confident about) he may have a decent shot at PM, if the public look like they don’t want comedy candidates. Wonder if he’ll have the balls to go for it?

  2. If doing the right thing for the wrong reason gets us the right result, doing the wrong thing for, perhaps, the right reason is not very clever. So what in God’s name possessed Nigel Farage to think introducing George Galloway to the platform was a good idea?

  3. So Much For Subtlety

    Milton Friedman said once something to the effect that the way to make politics work is to make the politicians’ interests align with ours.

    I think Boris is an amusing sh!t. But if he thinks his career would be better served by serving the public, the system is working.

  4. Ironman-

    Galloway has supporters and is on the Left. The Far Left. You don’t win a referendum if only the minority of crusty old conservatives and libertarians (both of them) are on your side.

  5. But how does this help La Boris when brexit gets defeated by an even wider margin than the polls suggest (vide: Scottish independence, last general election)? I’m sure there’s some strategy at play, at least in Boris’ keen, swift, and spiffing brain, but am not sure what it is.

  6. So what in God’s name possessed Nigel Farage to think introducing George Galloway to the platform was a good idea?

    I suspect (given the timing, when everyone was watching Dave bend over in Brussels) that the real audience there was the Electoral Commission, who will be deciding which Leave group gets the taxpayer cash and airtime.

    “Look at us, we’ve got someone even further left-wing than Corbyn!”

  7. Presumably at least some Tories think there is a chance of Brexit, and are aware that if the vote goes to the Outies, Innies are going to be thoroughly discredited yesterdays’ men. And women, in the case of May.

    If the vote goes Innie, we’re all fucked anyway.

  8. And, if Galloway can help direct the ballot-rigging in the more vibrant parts of the electorate, then I for one can hold my nose until the campaign is won!

  9. Bunter “Brains” Johnson only does things for purely intellectual reasons, so pure, that on here, we are told to prostrate ourselves in wonder and respect. It is outrageous to suggest that he would seek to affect the country’s future for anything other than the highest Conservative principles ( of succeeding in power from someone you know from school and warding off an oik from somewhere else) .

  10. BiG, even if the country votes to stay the majority of conservative members will probably vote to leave, and they’re the ones who select Camerons successor, it is highly unlikely that they’ll vote for anyone who was on the remain/pro EU side, even if remain wins and especially if they feel that the government has tried to stitch up the result. Boris is probably thinking that, in the context of a Tory leadership vote, it’s better for him to be on the leave side, and be seen to fight the good fight,- even if unsuccessful than to be seen as continuity Cameron/Osborne. Don’t forget the EU does matter to the Tory grass roots- they voted for IDS on the basis that Ken Clarkes pro EU views were unacceptable, and Cameron ran on a Euro Sceptic platform.

  11. There is only ever one ultimate problem and that is stupidity.

    Were this world not infested with morons no such organisation as the EU would even exist.

    Johnson is treason on legs. The only question for him would be who is next up for self-serving betrayal.

    BiG: That fat cow Merkal has been such a good friend to Brexit. If the outs win hopefully you will be forced to leave Germany or to actually become a German. They would probably be glad to have you–considering what a rough crowd they are getting in these days.

  12. Ironman – “If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons” ― Winston Churchill

  13. Ironman said:
    “what in God’s name possessed Nigel Farage to think introducing George Galloway to the platform was a good idea?”

    Galloway is good at getting the postal votes out.

  14. I agree with rossocepeco.

    I’d say an in win (provided it’s not by too big a margin) will be the best chance of Boris becoming Tory leader.

    The out majority amongst Tory party members (the electorate for the leadership contest) will mostly have voted out and will be so pissed off at losing that there’s no way they’d vote for anyone who campaigned for in.

    The one who I think has destroyed his career is Sajid Javid – neither side will trust him again.

  15. @rossocepeco – thanks – sounds plausible. Another thing occurs, which is that in the event of an “out” vote the likely actual outcome will be further concesssions and another referendum a year later. With not-Cameron in charge of that. But I think an “out” is too unlikely for this to be a rational decision by BoJo, and coming up with such strategies is probably beyond the puddingbrain.

    @Ecks, I’m in the process now, by way of insurance policy against Brexit. You can have my right to be a red-blooded Englishman throughout Europe when you pry it from my cold, dead hands.

    and I totally agree Merkel is doing her best to persuade the Brits out. I am amazed she is still in office – she must have a huge amount of dirt on everyone.

  16. BiG – Dunno, but I think our European partners are getting tired of us. Though not, sadly, of our money.

    It’ll be hard for the British government to hold a second referendum.

    Best outcome is we just join EFTA but stay out of the EEA, as per Switzerland.

  17. Again, thank you all for showing yourselves in your true colours. Yes indeed, yoy have no problem sharing a platform with a far left, vote rigging, anti-semitic dictator’s lapdog.

    Tell me again, why is government from Brussels so unpalatable to you? I know why I don’t like it but, given what you’re happy to swallow, it isn’t very clear what your objection is.

    Anyway, those crusty Tories are going to have their adult debate. And after it’s over there won’t an electoral platform for Ukip.

  18. I would share a platform with Osama bin Laden, Martin McGuinness, Nelson Mandela and Jihadi John if I thought it would help free us from the EU.

  19. Hell I’d share a platform with Tinribs, Zorro , Dave,SJW and– Christ help me –even Arnold–if I thought it would make victory over the EU a certainty.

  20. Steve

    No, neither do you.
    Tell me, are you really so far out there that you genuinely don’t realise how toxic Galloway is?

  21. Ironman – Eh, he’s not a cannibal or a disgraced 1970’s Radio 1 DJ or anything, so it’s more that I don’t care.

    The more people who support leaving, the better as far as I’m concerned.

    I’m interested in results, not propriety.

  22. I’d like to duet with Dolly Parton for the official Brexit song:

    Islands in the stream
    That is what we are
    No one in between
    How can we be wrong
    Sail away with me
    To another world
    And we rely on each other, ah ha
    From one lover to another, ah ha

  23. Ironman, the toxicity of Gorgeous George is irrelevant. This is a straight binary question – in or out. Nobody needs more than one reason. If you follow Galloway then this may be a reason, but if you don’t, he will not be a reason to vote IN. You are not choosing your rulers but deciding whether to evict them.

  24. Isn’t Boris’ popularity overrated? Or rather, people like him but do they see him in a position of real responsibility?

    Being Mayor of a wee village like London is all well and good, but when has he ever had to make really hard choices or deal with serious situations?

    I know much of his public persona is an act, but if a likeable, clownish (though intelligent) buffoon is how he’s chosen to portray himself then that’s how a lot of people will continue to view him.

    I’m not so sure that his intervention is likely to win over a huge number of undecideds.

  25. BiG – If we could get Suggs on backing vocals, it’d be perfect.

    John Square – Well, she’s getting on a bit now, but I reckon Dolly would still make a fetching Mrs Tufty for the Countdown crowd.

  26. Witchsmeller Pursuivant

    @Ironman

    An argument doesn’t become wrong just because an odious shit also supports it. And sharing a platform with such a shit does not imply endorsement with said shit’s views on anything else.
    Having said that, those wishing to remain are on the same side as the war-criminals Blair and Straw, as well as that insufferable leacher, Kinnock.

  27. Oh, and Galloway is an absolute cunt of the very worst kind. He tried to intervene in the Scottish referendum but most people up here regard him with absolute loathing so he was basically laughed out of town. The “No” campaign viewed his contribution as totally unhelpful.

    He may have the gift of the gab, but he has pretty selectively local appeal. I can see how he can get out the local vote but how will his rhetoric translate nationally?

  28. GlenDorran – Boris is seen as a mainstream figure. Almost more of a personality than a politician.

    His support helps fix in people’s minds that Brexit is no longer the choice of a few wild and wooly Bufton Tufton types, furiously brushing aside their ear hair as they don their “sending angry letters to the Telegraph” glasses.

    It’s the choice of a new generation.

  29. Yikes, I’m in agreement with Smelly Witch.

    This referendum is sure going to throw up some very strange bedfellows.

  30. And sharing a platform with such a shit does not imply endorsement with said shit’s views on anything else.

    pace St Corbyn and the IRA, Hezbollocks and every other heap of communist, anti-Semitic, or just simply deranged scumbags he has welcomed to his platform over the past 30 years or so.

  31. Hmmm. “Dolly Parton and her Swivel-Eyed Loons” certainly has a fitting retro ring to it!

    With mountains of fruitcake for the back stage party!

  32. The UK is going to be getting an unusual amount of love from Brussels …. and other states may become jealous, and demand a few cuddles of their own.

    My own feeling is that the status quo will win as usual, however Cameron should take this opportunity to suggest some sort of re-negotiation and reform within the EU.

    Will he take it??

  33. Given the shit the EU is in, there’s no better time for a referendum.
    If we can’t win now we never will.

    Except, oh scrub the above. Things could get even worse for the project.

  34. Hasn’t he just done that Jack C? Came back with his concessions, etc. If the UK votes in then the leverage is gone. What’s on the table is it.

  35. I thought I was being gently ironic.

    Cameron is adamant that he’s secured a Reformed EU, but the reforms all seem a little vague.

    I’m sure it’s all very exciting and historic though.

  36. Jack C – If we’re daft enough to vote to stay in, I expect the EU to swiftly punish Dave Cameron’s presumption in thinking he could renegotiate. Pour encourager yadda yadda.

    They won’t let it lie. They’ll make an example of us.

    Expect those invasion camps at Calais to be relocated across the water. Merkel will send further enrichment our way too.

  37. So on the “out” side we now have Johnson, Farage, and Galloway?

    It’s looking good for Cameron, isn’t it.

  38. Brexit or no this Yank still supports free trade with Britain. Although your far cheaper healthcare system gives your workers an economic advantage over ours you have environmental and labor laws that aren’t that much different than ours.

  39. OK, thank yoy to our Scottish contributors for their important contributions. Galloway is indeed a shit. His contribution to the No campaign in Scotland probably did more harm than good; there is no probably in this campaign. Corbyn is fixed in our minds forever by his associations; a lot of people cast rheir vote based upon associations. As I campaign for Brexit I don’t want to be associated with George Galloway. Certain people here have gone as far a to respond, effectively, “what’s your point? What’s wrong with him?”

  40. @Ironman
    “Certain people here have gone as far a to respond, effectively, “what’s your point? What’s wrong with him?””

    I’m not sure they did that, Ironman. I felt the comments were more like: ‘Sure, he’s an asshole. But I’ll ignore that, because he’s a minor figure in this whole thing, and he’s probably not a liability’

    Personally, I think he’s scum, but surely he’s so utterly discredited, that no-one gives a fuck outside of (eg) Bradford’s local Loya Jurga about he’s inclination towards Brexit.

  41. Ironman

    “As I campaign for Brexit I don’t want to be associated with George Galloway.”

    There are absolutely shit loads of people in this world I really “don’t want to be associated with”. A “minor” exaggeration but “anyone to the left of Ecks” just for starters…

    But if people are so puritanical that they withhold their vote until only those they want to be associated with are allowed into their team, then every single one of us is wasting our time.

    This is not a political party we are voting for but a simple referendum choice on something quite fundamental – sovereignty?

    A broad church of people, who might otherwise have very little (or preferably nothing) to do with each other, but capable of appealing to their own supporters, may be the best chance of maximising the vote.

    And as to Galloway in Scotland, if Leave have any sense, they’ll play to strengths. Send Galloway to Bradford, Farage & Johnson to the country, whatever…

  42. “As I campaign for Brexit I don’t want to be associated with George Galloway.”

    Well, how many people in the Leave Campaigns have actually expressed concern about whether you turn up, exactly?

  43. Yeah but George Galloway puts people off voting; I ‘ll never persuade anyone with George Galloway be prominent.

    Similarly, associating on this blog with our own little Adam Johnson doesn’t help our cause either.

  44. This I the problem for remit ampaigners. People want to vote the way sensible people vote. So the case must be made really well. Instead those undecided voters see George Galloway, the single most toxic name in British politics so Ecks and Ian B can’t see he problems, but they’re complete fucking numpties. With intellects like theirs at work this referendum is lost already.

  45. Ironman, with that little piece of AAA grade cuntery you just put yourself up there with George Galloway in the ‘Who’s the biggest arsehole in the land’ stakes.

  46. Ironman,

    What’s the difference between Galloway and Corbyn. To me they are both utterly toxic.

    DBC might say the same about Boris and Dave – or whoever, we’ve all got our own equivalents and for any of us, there will be 100% shits arguing both for and against our own position.

    I can’t honestly believe you are being serious about this. If you are, it’s your personal problem and probably yours alone?

    “single most toxic” – to you maybe, but we all have our own different view on that, and each of us every bit as valid as yours?

  47. Well, I dunno about youse/y’all, but I always apply the Ironman Tena Lady moisture test before voting on the fate of my country.

  48. @Ironman,

    The socialist muslamic Scot puts people off voting? I thought he was the only member ever to have been returned with more than 100% of the vote.

  49. But how does this help La Boris when brexit gets defeated by an even wider margin than the polls suggest (vide: Scottish independence, last general election)? I’m sure there’s some strategy at play, at least in Boris’ keen, swift, and spiffing brain, but am not sure what it is.

    I think the polls are wrong and the “Shy Tory” phenomenon will push the Out vote past the point necessary for Brexit, but I suspect it will be a close call.

    For a PM to campaign to stay in and then lose would be fatal, Cameron would have to resign and the new PM would be BoJo or a compromise candidate. Those who fancy their chances like Teresa May would also be contaminated by campaign to stay in.

    I think it is a positive move on BoJo’s part and a good indicator the Brexit will succeed and David Cameron can go fuck himself with a cactus.

  50. Has anyone in the government actually confirmed that if the Referendum vote is “leave”, they will actually leave the EU?

  51. and David Cameron can go fuck himself with a cactus

    Nothing – I was just curious to see what that looked like using html tags.

  52. Interesting – the “underline” and “font 36” tags don’t seem to work? Tim, we may need “preview” back..??

  53. This thread started as a snide criticism of Brains Johnson’s personal ambitions (his name is in the first line of the story) but immediately became an attack on George Galloway.If Brains is looking for the support of those as stupid and easily distracted as himself then he is onto a winner!
    BTW his rare appearance in the Commons yesterday was a grade one shot- in-own-foot fiasco, asking a question about the return of legislative powers to the chamber, while demonstrating by his slovenly appearance and delivery that the more power that is taken away from that chamber the better: all that it does is conspire to put up land/property values to bribe the older voters to vote for them, something which has made Brains’ London an exclusive citadel for bribed- silly locals and foreign gangsters.

  54. “asking a question about the return of legislative powers to the chamber, while demonstrating by his slovenly appearance and delivery that the more power that is taken away from that chamber the better”

    speaks a true democrat.

  55. @PF So mass bribery of homoewners is democratic?NB In televised “War and Peace” the Russian serfs supported Napoleon because he would give then free land: Londoners would support anybody who supplied cheap land to house homeless people and help entrepreneurs provide employment.

  56. DBC

    “speaks a true democrat”

    Let me explain.

    “That chamber” – the one you specifically said you wanted power “taken away from” – is comprised of our elected representatives. You know, the ones that we – the people – “democratically” elect.

    Does that help at all?

  57. PF It is not democratic to bribe homeowners (or even homoewners a much trickier bunch) to let wages drift down on the guarantee that their houses will increase in value by more per annum (or per anum in the second case) than the average yearly wage. What is it about corruption and the rotten boroughs of London that you don’t understand?

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