Cruz beats Trump?

Not what I expected, to be sure. So, predictions for New Hampshire?

Not sure I see an evangelical doing all that well there but……

35 thoughts on “Cruz beats Trump?”

  1. Trump is a busted flush; Cruz can’t win the country. So regardless of New Hampshire, my money is going on Rubio.

    Donald the Loser has a nice ring to it. Don’t think he’s going to lose graciously.

  2. I need to see a birth certificate. I’m pretty sure we decided that was the new rule 8 years ago.

    I’m going to say that Rubio and Sanders take NH.

    Interestingly who uses a coin flip in politics. More interestingly how often do you see 6 straight coin flips go the same way. I know the odds aren’t actually that bad but Hillary just added another line to her list of conspiracies.

    O’Malley and Huckabee are out.

    My personal choice Paul only picked up 1 delegate.

    Should I be concerned that to get any decent coverage I had to go to

  3. Soon enough. His ego won’t allow him to hang around and lose.

    Wait for certain types bleating about how the MSM has destroyed him for “telling the truth”.

  4. I’m pretty sure I’ve been downplaying Trump for months. Hopefully in a couple weeks I’ll be able to gloat when he is out of the race.

  5. Trump is the classic ‘Marmite’ politician: voters love him or hate him, and he doesn’t really appeal to anyone in between. So he’s the front runner only as long as the rest of the field is divided.

  6. He still came second, and it was close. If others start to drop out, Trump may yet pick up their votes. Iowa caucuses historically have only picked the Republican primary winner 50% of the time (source: Wikipedia).

    That said, Trump’s whole campaign has basically been “Vote for me, I’m God”. Now we see that he’s a mere mortal. His campaign seems unlikely to recover.

  7. Trump was never likely to win Iowa, but he still did well there:

    Ted Cruz: 28%, eight delegates
    Donald Trump: 24%, seven delegates

    He’ll romp New Hampshire and South Carolina, with Cruz in second.

    Cabana boy Rubio will go back to trolling public parks for dick.

  8. The lefty liberals will now be about to turn Ted Cruz into the new devil.

    Tell me this is a freak and Sanders doesn’t have a chance, because the idea of Hilldog not getting to be nominee is making me real happy.

  9. The Stigler – The lefty liberals will now be about to turn Ted Cruz into the new devil.

    To be fair, he looks like Count Von Count.

  10. Ian B – poor Bush. All his remaining backers, if he still has any this morning, will be running to get serviced by Rubio.

  11. Don’t worry The Stigler I’ve already been calling Cruz a devil for quite a while.

    I assume you meant to say that Sanders does have a chance in which case I’m not sure that he does. Socialism hatred is far worse in the south than the north. Since many of the Super Tuesday primaries are in the South I expect Hillary to do better then.

    Maybe it will an open race when my primary comes so I can avoid having to vote for her altogether. Normally the hicks in smaller states have chosen who I have to put up with thanks to our system.

  12. I tend to agree with Steve that it’s too early to call against Trump. I’m pretty sure he won’t win against Hilary, but a few points short on 1 result doesn’t tell us much.

    By the way, can we now say that Hilary’s very good at tossing dead presidents? (come on, do better)

  13. Steve:

    I wish that your comments about Rubio were true, but I fear that he’s the candidate the GOP establishment will get behind and try to propel to victory.

    Liberal Yank:

    Maybe it will an open race when my primary comes so I can avoid having to vote for her altogether. Normally the hicks in smaller states have chosen who I have to put up with thanks to our system.

    First, you can cast a write-in vote. Second, it’s amazing how conventional wisdom “knows” that Cruz talking about “New York values” is such a horrible thing, but talking about those “hicks” and their “bitter clinging” is not only acceptable, but almost virtuous.

    I live two hours north of New York City up in the Catskills, and Cruz is right about the New York values thing.

  14. First, you can cast a write-in vote.

    Actually there is a case going to the PA supreme court about write in candidates. The link I have is now broken Google searches are only giving me information on current supreme court candidates so I have no source. Basically any write in candidates have been thrown out due to a law that you have to be on the ballot beforehand. I’ll see if I can find it after I get to work.

    The hicks comment was unnecessary but like the New York values has a hint of truth. If it helps the hicks from the sticks was standard slang where I grew up for the people who didn’t live in a major city, which we were.

  15. Trump is a balloon and cannot turn hot air into votes; nothing to see here. Cruz is a creep, the most oleagenous politico I have seen for some time – far worse than anyone in Blighty. Rubio is probably a creep too but will be the man to beat in the longer run as he can reach beyond angry white men. Real shock was Hill just squeaking past by half a percentage point. Not a good day at the office.

  16. Ted – I fear that he’s the candidate the GOP establishment will get behind and try to propel to victory.

    Natch. They’ll take Jeb out to the woods now, open the car door, and tell him “go on, boy! You’re free now!”.

    But will they be any more successful ramming the establishment’s new pool boy down voters’ throats?

    I doubt it. Change is in the air, like in a Scorpions music video.

  17. The Stig – Yarp.

    Bearing in mind Trump wasn’t (until a couple of late polls gave him a slender lead) expected to win Iowa. It’s a caucus and not a primary, and it’s a small state dominated by retail politics, so narrow second place is a decent result.

    Won’t stop the media framing it as a terrible blow to The Trumpening, but I expect that narrative to be as successful as calling him a joke candidate, a New York Liberal, and the second coming of Mussolini was.

    Cruz recruited an amazing number of local activists and his Moral Majority pandering goes down well there. Neither of these factors are likely to be in his favour in New Hampshire or SC.

    In the southern states, I expect The Trumpster to do especially well (for a Republican) with black voters. Cruz doesn’t have that sort of appeal.

  18. “In the southern states, I expect The Trumpster to do especially well (for a Republican) with black voters.”

    So he’ll get two percent instead of one?

  19. Matthew – Romney got 6% of the black vote.

    Polls suggest Trump could get 20% – 40%.

    I think the upper range seems unlikely, but he won’t be up against Obama, has strong populist appeal, and black voters love a colourful leader, so he’ll do well for a Republican.

    Especially if Bernie wins the Democratic nomination. The creepy old white guy whose main appeal is free college for (white) kids versus the Big Baller billionaire who gets namechecked in rap songs – no contest.

  20. Trump has been on 25% give or take for months.
    Other candidates will drop out, progressively leaving fewer and fewer after New Hampshire and especially super Tuesday.
    Who will their supporters then vote for?y guess is someone other than Trump.
    Why? Because as above he’s a Marmite candidate. Also he doesn’t appear to have a ground operation, so must stick to TV appearances to garner support. Many of the others do have a ground operation which will make a difference now that actual voting has started.
    By Florida there’ be two or three candidates left, and Trump if he’s still running will still be getting about 25% of the vote.

  21. Pat –

    “For now, Trump is favored by 38 percent of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a Boston Herald-Franklin Pierce University poll released Sunday. Cruz is a distant second at 13 percent, followed by Rubio and Bush, 10 percent; Kasich, 8 percent; and Christie, 5 percent.” – Washington Post

    But you’re right that the second and third preferences of (currently) non-Trump supporters will be a big factor.

    Jeb! voters will probably go to Rubio. But where will Cruz voters go when he runs out of steam?

  22. The only real value to Iowa and NH are that they begin the process of winnowing.

    On the Republican side: Who wins them is largely of interest to the chattering classes; who separates themselves from the pack is of interest to the professionals and large donors. Cruz, Trump and Rubio appear to have done what they needed to do in Iowa. With the possible exception of Carson, the remainder can pack their bags and go home.

    On the Democratic side: As it did 8 years ago, Iowa clearly demonstrates Clinton’s weakness. NH now becomes her last stand… If Sanders beats her you will see the Draft Biden movement activated in a big way.

    As an aside: Do not underestimate Ted Cruz. He is easily the most gifted politician running this cycle. He is anti-establishment, and conservatives (such as myself) are drawn to him not only for his policy positions, but because he is hated by all the right people in the Republican Party (Romney, McCain, McConnell, Ryan, etc.). The most nature candidate to receive Trump’s voters, should they migrate, is Ted Cruz.

  23. Only shallow people don’t vote on appearances.

    Cruz, with his giveaway slitty eyes and weak flabby chin, is utterly revolting.

    His acceptance speech made me feel a little sick at regular intervals.

  24. I’ve been waiting for the right thread to ask this in but one hasn’t come up yet so I’ll pose the question now. What is the impact of the education tax credit on tuition rates?

    I ask this because when the British dropped the mortgage interest tax credit housing prices dropped. If college tax credits cause an increase in the basic price of a degree wouldn’t the government paying for the full cost lead to much faster growth in that cost?

  25. Yes, subsidies to anything (whether tax credits or govet paying the cost directly) push up the price of things.

  26. So we need to double the cost of Sanders’s college plan for the next 10 years. The everyone should go to college notion never sat well with me, even as idealistic youth.

  27. I am afraid our gracious host and most commenters gravely misunderstand Sen. Cruz. On the single, true, data point that he is an evangelical, they tend to build a whole stock character of the smarmy, knuckle-dragging, Texas bible-thumper.

    But if that is your model of Cruz, you are in for some surprises. For example, the principal issue in the Iowa GOP caucus was not religion, but the inane, but sacred-in-Iowa Ethanol subsidy. No major candidate in Iowa has dared to call for its obvious abolition in decades. Cruz did. In response, the biggest GOP power in the state, Gov. Brandstedt, abandoned the traditional neutrality and called for an anybody-but-Cruz jihad. Even if Cruz disappears from the pages of history tomorrow, the fact that he was able to demonstrate that you can win Iowa while being anti-Ethanol subsidy means that he will have done the world more good than most of us.

    For a more detailed, well-informed (if Texas-lefty) profile on Cruz, see here . That may not make you like him any more, but you will understand him a whole lot better.

  28. Sanders did well to produce a statistical tie in Iowa. He’s going to win in NH, without question, but the margin’s the thing. If he’s more than 20 points clear of Clinton, that puts her very much on the defensive. On the other hand, if Clinton can manage a narrow loss in NH, things will probably go her way.

    Trump’s going to win NH on the GOP side. The more interesting question is how Cruz and Rubio place – we’ll see how fast the GOP establishment jumps on Rubio’s bandwagon. If Cruz manages to beat Rubio in NH, he’ll have had a good day. Carson’s going nowhere in NH, and won’t last long in the race.

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