So thus this email from Simon Hobson:
Spotted an oddity on BM Reports (http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm) regarding the long term surplus. According to the graph currently shown, we are due a shortfall of over 1GW late this year – see attached. Week 49 has a deficit of 950MW, week 50 a deficit of 1040, week 51 is -565, and week 2 next year, -242. Week 52 shows a good surplus – but I suspect that’s because all the offices and factories will be shut over Christmas.
I’m thinking it may just be a glitch in the data, but if true then could an interesting story to pick up on. Of course, for consumers it probably doesn’t mean lights going out, but it does mean industrial disruption as interruptible supplies get invoked on large consumers of lecky. Not to mention, some diesel generators getting run !
Wow, it seems like it’s not a glitch.
Looking at the graph today, I see 14 (yes, fourteen) weeks with a deficit forecast – with the largest forecast deficit now up to 3434MW in week 50 !Looking down to the forecast long term capacity by fuel type, it seems there’s a big drop (about 7GW) in coal from end of March/early April – part of which will be the Ferry Bridge shutdown recently announced. More will be the Fiddlers Ferry shutdown announced last year.
So I guess there’ll be a lot of factory shutdowns happening over winter then as interruptible supplies get called on.
That Ed Davey and Ed Miliband would fuck up trying to plan something has always been obvious. But is this really where we are, with factories closing because there’s no power to run them?
And wouldn’t a carbon tax have been a better idea?
“There is no such thing as a good tax” Sir Winston Churchill. A so-called Carbon Tax, actually a carbon dioxide tax, is a tax on plant-food and as such can only be supported by Deep Green nutters.
Tim
If CO2 were a problem then tax would be a better solution.
But CO2 and specifically man-made CO2 is not a problem.
Therefore the tax is a crap idea
That Ed Davey and Ed Miliband would fuck up trying to plan something has always been obvious. But is this really where we are, with factories closing because there’s no power to run them?
Why are you surprised? People have been warning about this for years and it’s now starting to show just as predicted. Neither side of the house seems to want to fix it so it’ll get much worse before anyone tries to do something useful like build more power stations.
And wouldn’t a carbon tax have been a better idea?
No.
Our politicians have been determined to ignore competent advice and support fluffy bunnies and build an economy powered by unicorn farts. Now we have to deal with the consequences of a generational refusal to grow up or face reality.
But seriously, how f**king Third World does Britain have to get before we find some grown ups and put them in charge?
For those that believe the sun perhaps has something to do with temperature, I recommend http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/11/solar-cycle-24-activity-continues-to-be-lowest-in-nearly-200-years/ and ensuing discussion.
Just as the plantfoodphobes have fucked the energy supply the sun appears to be dozing off in a manner not seen since the Little Ice Age. Frost Fairs on a frozen Thames should keep up spirits!
But is this really where we are, with factories closing because there’s no power to run them?
Ironically, it is the Germans who are going to get clobbered in this fashion more than anyone. I read a good article some time back about how the very expensive German manufacturing equipment is highly sensitive to fluctuations in current: not a problem when conventional or nuclear power stations are doing the supplying, but with the wind bullshit meaning supplies are forever stopping and starting and having to be switched over regularly, the “dirty” electricity is damaging the equipment. So the German factories are having to spend millions on equipment which cleans up the electricity supply upstream the machinery.
Here is the article.
Yes, this is real and no, a carbon tax is not a good idea.
I read this yesterday: UK Blackout Risk
http://euanmearns.com/uk-blackout-risk-amber-warning/
Dave’s plan to put Corbyn in Number 10 continues.
We already have various UK carbon taxes one of which is called the Fuel Price Escalator.
They are obviously working since we’re closing down all the generators that work, (except the dirty diesel gennies), and installing loads of expensive useless windmills. These coal and gas plant closures are because the carbon taxes make them uneconomic to run.
Oh, and since the FPE was introduced in 1993, the rise in temps has levelled off apart from the occasional El Nino driven spike.
In actual fact of course, a carbon tax, even if implemented world wide and enforced by a well armed and incorruptable UN army, would make a massive fuck all difference to the climate of the planet, even supposing that the lying climate scare bastards have got their sums right. (They haven’t.)
They will crash build some CCGT stations. Be interesting to see how quickly they can knock up a CCGT when needs must.
Such things as ‘planning enablement’ – decide where tomorrow, bulldozers in next Monday.
Siemens / GE / Alstom / Mitsubishi can’t supply the desired 400 MW units within 18 months? no problem, use the sub-optimal 200MW units that can be supplied.
etc
Let’s not forget that the political eco-shite have already spent a billion+ of taxpayers cash on rounding up loads of large diesel jennys that were supposed to provide an expensive (and definitely non-green) semi-secret back up to wind-wankery.
If this shortfall includes that capacity then that is more money than most of us could spend in a lifetime wasted–again.
@Tim N
Ironically, it is the Germans who are going to get clobbered in this fashion more than anyone.
No, it will be the east and south east europeans, who will have to go without when the rich west europeans buy up all the electricity that’s available and they have to go without.
AFAIK, this is already happening.
@Tim N
Not saying your wrong (heaven’s no), just that the rich germans can pay their way out of the dual problems of dirty and inadequate supply, whereas the poorer nations can’t.
typo: you’re
It’s basically the Green desire to put everyone (except themselves of course) into a state of Managed Poverty. Nobody starves to death, but nobody has any more than the basics- at the whim of the government- for fear that they may enjoy themselves. This is the policy of negative growth in action.
I’m very surprised that under these circumstances SSE are planning to close Ferrybridge and Fiddler’s Ferry. I can’t help wondering if they’re looking for a bit of cash from the government to keep them open a bit longer.
I hope they are since I’m an SSE shareholder.
“So Much For Subtlety” asks: “how f**king Third World does Britain have to get before we find some grown ups and put them in charge?”
Good question.
There is no God given right to good government. It could get very third world and never get any grown ups. Those responsible will never believe it’s their fault – it will always be “wreckers” or “multinationals” or “Deniers” or whatever.
Look at Venezuela or Zimbabwe.
Maybe we’ll get lucky…
I can’t help wondering if they’re looking for a bit of cash from the government to keep them open a bit longer.
Ahh, yes, likely something like that, or similar.
Perhaps they’re after money to put power stations into cold standby instead of closing them down. Then, if the weathermen say it will be cold and calm next week, fire them up again.
It costs money to keep baseload stations on cold standby, and its a stupid thing to do, and its a few quid more on everybody’s bills, but it gets the politicians and the generators off the hook.
Look out for a minor news article that some stations will be re-allocated to ‘cold standby’ instead of being shut down completely.
So, to keep the lights on, we will have to turn some of the lights off?
Central planning is wonderful thing, isn’t it.
> Perhaps they’re after money to put power stations into cold standby instead of closing them down
That thought had crossed my mind. The articles I’ve read say the stations are losing money, which is believable given how the market is now and the extra taxes they have to pay. According to the chart, there is a massive drop in spare capacity end March/early April which ties in with when Ferry Bridge and Fiddlers Ferry are slated for closure – but the drop is more than the combined capacity of those two.
So from a tactical point of view, it would make sense to pay to keep these plants available – and it would make sense for the owners (given they are losing money now) to force someone else to pay for it.
As to European wide effects, I was talking to someone at a meeting a while ago and he said he’d been at a meeting with some continental counterparts. He asked his counterparts from France how they matched supply and demand given their large proportion of nuclear generation. The answer was something like “when it’s half time in Paris, the lights go out in Milan”. I can well see that at times of negative surplus, market prices will rise, and as suggested – some people elsewhere in Europe will find their lights going out. Isn’t a connected world just wonderful !
A carbon tax is a terrible idea, since there is absolutely no evidence that CO2 emissions have caused any harm to anyone anywhere.
These people are very serious, and very evil. These coal plants will never be switched on again. I live a few miles from Didcot, and when that coal plant closed the generators were sent to Germany. With no money there will be no maintenance, and with no maintenance these plants very quickly move beyond economic repair. And there is going to be no money.
Part of the great plan of course is that you will be forced to use less electricity. Hence smart meters and vacuum cleaners that won’t clean. The in-laws have already got their next vacuum cleaner even though there current one is still serviceable, because they know what’s coming down the line. So they’re aware there is a problem, but try as I might I can’t get them to even be faintly annoyed about it, let alone angry.
I have no doubt this is a circle that can’t be squared, and eventually something vaguely sensible might be done, by which time the only thing will be CCGT plants. But some doubt we have enough capacity to build them quickly enough.
the rise in temps has levelled off apart from the occasional El Nino driven spike
that’s an ingenious way to express the fact that the last three months of 2015 saw by some distance the highest global average surface temperature anomaly.
” rise in temps has levelled off apart from the occasional El Nino driven spike
that’s an ingenious way to express the fact that the last three months of 2015 saw by some distance the highest global average surface temperature anomaly.”
sigh
Hmm, came across this one :
http://euanmearns.com/uk-blackout-risk-amber-warning/
Lists the closures, the effect of taking typical availability/load factor into account, and where we actually stand. Perhaps the lights won’t go out, but it’ll be a close shave if they don’t.