So thus this email from Simon Hobson:
Spotted an oddity on BM Reports (http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm) regarding the long term surplus. According to the graph currently shown, we are due a shortfall of over 1GW late this year – see attached. Week 49 has a deficit of 950MW, week 50 a deficit of 1040, week 51 is -565, and week 2 next year, -242. Week 52 shows a good surplus – but I suspect that’s because all the offices and factories will be shut over Christmas.
I’m thinking it may just be a glitch in the data, but if true then could an interesting story to pick up on. Of course, for consumers it probably doesn’t mean lights going out, but it does mean industrial disruption as interruptible supplies get invoked on large consumers of lecky. Not to mention, some diesel generators getting run !
Wow, it seems like it’s not a glitch.
Looking at the graph today, I see 14 (yes, fourteen) weeks with a deficit forecast – with the largest forecast deficit now up to 3434MW in week 50 !
Looking down to the forecast long term capacity by fuel type, it seems there’s a big drop (about 7GW) in coal from end of March/early April – part of which will be the Ferry Bridge shutdown recently announced. More will be the Fiddlers Ferry shutdown announced last year.
So I guess there’ll be a lot of factory shutdowns happening over winter then as interruptible supplies get called on.
That Ed Davey and Ed Miliband would fuck up trying to plan something has always been obvious. But is this really where we are, with factories closing because there’s no power to run them?
And wouldn’t a carbon tax have been a better idea?