Desperate, desperate, stuff, eh?

The NHS, schools and defence will face billions of pounds worth of cuts and householders will be £4,300 poorer a year if Britain votes to leave the European Union because of the economic impact of a Brexit, George Osborne will warn.

The Chancellor will on Monday publish landmark Treasury report which is expected to warn that a Brexit will lead to a possible recession, plummeting exports and rising prices.

It will state that the economic impact of a vote to leave the European Union in June is likely to be “permanent” and could leave Britain worse off “for decades to come” and shrink the economy by 6% by 2030.

Patrick Minford would beg to disagree….

120 thoughts on “Desperate, desperate, stuff, eh?”

  1. No single economist can predict what would happen exactly. This 6% figure is guaranteed to be wrong.

    But take the sniff test. If even a few multinationals left the UK that would cut growth. Brexiteers want €5-8bn back from the EU. That’s chicken feed compared to sustained lower output.

    “Oh but trade would increase outside the EU” How?

    The UK is a services economy. Largely financial services. Selling these abroad is difficult. India is completely protectionist, and unlikely to change. China favours Hong Kong and could turn off the taps at any time. USA – they have enough banks.

    Airy “oh it’ll be alright on the night” doesn’t cut the moutarde chaps.

  2. Tim
    Come off it, the indirect effect (lawyers, accountants, consultants etc etc) is much more than that, and what about multinationals based in the UK for tax? etc etc.

    But even take your figure, how much of that are we ready to sacrifice? And to what end?

    The reason the UK economy doesn’t make things and export them outside the EU is because UK schools don’t teach the kids anything. Leaving the EU wont change that.

  3. Fascinating. Since the early 1990s, myself and many others have called upon HMG to publish a thorough and independent CBA of our continued membership. All refused point blank.
    I really do not know which of the parties front benches I despise more. All enemies of Britain and its people.

  4. Machiavelli
    Would you believe the results if they did? Does anyone believe Osborne’s figures this morning? I don’t, other than the broad theme that the UK would be poorer short term, and probably long term.

    The sniff test often works better than wonky wanky econometrics.

  5. Just amazing that Oddborne thinks he has any credibility left when it comes to numbers after his performance as Chancellor.

  6. Regrettably, I find Steve’s arguments somewhat persuasive.
    The day after a Brexit.becomes a reality the country will still be labouring under the mountain of EU regulations previously enacted. I don’t see the slightest appetite amongst our ruling & administrative classes to “seize the day”, sweep any of them away & actually gain any benefit from exit. They’ll all be bending their minds to engineering a situation where the UK is effectively inside the EU, for all practical purposes, whilst nominally being outside it. So the worst of both worlds.
    These people just don’t do democracy.

  7. Even assuming the figures are right maybe there’s more to life than just money
    I sense panic in the air as the claims get more and more wild

  8. bloke in spain

    Yep. Democracy dictates that a UK govt would be exposed to every national pressure for protection and rent-preserving regulations. There would be no “we can’t because of the EU” shield for governments to hide behind.

  9. Julian

    Yes the blind pursuit of more and more money is a fool’s errand. But try winning an election on that slogan

  10. Press releases are surely planned predicting contamination of the water supply, the return of rabies and a plague of boils on the skins of children.

  11. Bloke in North Dorset

    I’m surprised they haven’t gone with the nuclear option to scare the daily mail classes: house prices will fall. Perhaps they’re saving that for closer to the election?

  12. Why is it that in the press ‘might’ and ‘could’ seem to equal ‘will’ ? Is it because they are too stupid/ignorant to know the difference or because they are on board with the message of fear approach ?
    Outers should relentlessly point out the fact that ‘might’ also means ‘might not’.

  13. JonD

    “You might not lose your job, but we’d get to write our own regulations on cabbages” Good luck selling that

  14. Earning your money again today Stevie?

    BiS–The fact that our ruling classes are stupid and EU contaminated just means there is more work to do. Work that will be much easier to do when the Westmonster pricks don’t have backup from the rest of the Euro-dross governments and the islamtown bureaucracy.

    Also remember that Steve is a moron who has zero understanding of the programmed bullshit he spouts.

    A clown who doesn’t know that Wilders /Le Pen are enemies of the EU is just a troll parroting what he has been told.

    Cut him off and starve the cunt of attention. He will keep parroting the same shite for a 1000 posts–because he is on wages. He wants acres of verbiage he can show his bosses.

  15. “You might not lose your job, but we’d get to write our own regulations on cabbages”
    You’re treating jobs as if they’re some sort of lifetime sinecure. We all lose our jobs. In my working lifetime I’ve “lost” almost every job I’ve ever had. (Except, by the time the job was “lost” I’d already switched track & was already doing something else)
    Jobs will be lost. Jobs will be created. But, as Tim often reminds us, jobs are a cost, not a benefit. Remaining in the EU, just to preserve jobs is another word for “outdoor relief”.

  16. Steve,
    in your mind does your message constitute a response to mine ? If so then your irrationality is confirmed by your own hand.

  17. Bloke in spain – Well yes, but in this context “jobs” is shorthand for business leaving the UK.

    Ecks. I’ll be out seeing a few clients today, so posting will be light from now on. You’ll have to find someone else’s posts to nitpick (missing the point btw) without addressing the key issues.

  18. JonD – gosh you’re right, you’ve overturned my whole world view with your searing insight. Thanx!!!!!!!

  19. “but in this context “jobs” is shorthand for business leaving the UK.”
    One of those jobs I “lost” was because the company moved production to another EU country. Into facilities subsidised by EU money. There’s now no example of that industry operating in the UK. The company was one of the town’s largest employers. Had devastating local consequences.
    Good reason for being in the EU?

  20. ” I’ll be out seeing a few clients today, so posting will be light from now on. You’ll have to find someone else’s posts to nitpick (missing the point btw) without addressing the key issues.”

    So that is your main job Steve. The busy life of a male prostitute .

    The classic “not addressing” the “key issues” bullshit. Is that how the sheet describes them –“Key Issues” Stevie?

    “It is vitally important that Key Issues are emphasised time and again. DO NOT ENGAGE IN DEBATE. DO NOT ARGUE OR EVEN LOOK AT FACTS COUNTERING OUR ARGUMENTS. (“I don’t look at videos”) Dismiss these with a few (glib) phrases and go back to emphasising the key “issues” over and over. Repetition is the key to our message going over .” Copyright EU 2016.

    And once again that is enough time wasted. I’m not helping to enrich the treasonous scum of the UK. Assuming he is British. He could easily be a continental. Dutch, a Scandi, someone typing English well enough as a second language.

  21. The Treasury report isn’t out yet, but listening to Osbo on the radio, they’ve looked at several trade options on Brexit, and then provided calculations on the ones that leave the UK worse off.
    By subtraction we can infer the Norway option where we pay for market access and keep free movement, but get back control of farming, home affairs and justice will make the UK better off.

  22. ” the company moved production to another EU country.”

    As indeed many have done, such as BMW’s move of some of the MINI production to the Netherlands with, I suspect, more to follow. More common is a shift to production in the newer EU members where costs (presumably) are lower.

  23. The treasury report assumes we leave without any well defined ‘solution’. If we adopt Flexit, we would move back to EFTA with minimal impact on trade. We could then take our time crafting a long term solution at our own pace. Moving to EFTA would also make sense as if we leave other countries might also leave and it would be wise to wait until the smoke clears.

  24. Osbourne , like his chum Pig-Fook is both a liar and a bungler. I wouldn’t trust him to tell the time of day. Either in terms of competence OR honesty.

  25. Poor erstaz Steve, he thinks Britain isn’t big enough nor strong enough to hold its own in the world.

    Does mummy still hold your hand when you cross the road, ersatz Steve?

  26. “Brazil’s lower house of congress votes to start impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff, who is accused of manipulating government figures.”

    Hmmm….

  27. PS. Lilico’s site has several other short essays on different aspects of Leaving (or Remaining), in particular the prospects for financial services and the City. Rather than clutter this blog with more links, I’ll simply encourage you to browse.

  28. The fall in GDP is predicated on EU countries imposing tariffs which would be met in equal measure by UK tariffs on EU imports which would have a greater on the EU than on the UK in dollar terms if not in proportioinal terms.

    So how does Osborne suggest we deal with these apparently vindictive and self-destructive maniacs? Ever closer union.

  29. BiS

    I agree that our politicians are useless. But I would be quite happy to take away the ability of our cretins to hide behind their cretins.

    We can, in theory at least, vote out our cretins. Every single one of our MP’s is directly accountable to the plebs, at least once every five years, even the Prime Minister of the day.

    Isn’t this a mindset thing. Ie, those that worry or fear the world (and in a misguided way see the EU as some sort of protection) versus those of us who are essentially optimists about what might be possible?

  30. PF all EU decision makers are elected. Not the civil service /Commission of course. But unlike the uk civil service Commissioners get OKed by elected MEPs.

    Remember the Commission was sacked in 1999. Elected officials call the shots

  31. Good news lads. I’ve just signed a big contract trolling for the Illuminati. €€€€€€€s

    I’ll toast you with some chateau petrus this lunchtime

  32. EU Steve

    PF all EU decision makers are elected. Not the civil service /Commission of course. But unlike the uk civil service Commissioners get OKed by elected MEPs.

    Sure, but by “Euro wide” MEPs or other politicians, not directly by the “UK” electorate.

    The wider EU is NOT a demos.

    UK decision makers in the Commons are elected directly by the UK electorate, all 650 of them, even the Prime Minister.

    You’re simply trying to mislead again.

  33. PF

    The EU is not a democracy. So no demos needed.

    The EU is under democratic control, like NATO. The EU has more democratic bells and whistles than NATO but i think it would be unfair to say Nato was undemocratic

  34. “Mask slipping????”

    Yep, and what the fuck has NATO got to do with this – NATO is a mutual defence treaty, nothing else!

    Simply more deflection.

  35. Nato is a defence pact and the EU is a deep free trade area with a few added extras. Both under democratic control

  36. Ain’t compound interest a wonderful thing? Assuming the geniuses in the Treasury can calculate the future performance of the economy to within one basis point (they can’t) and that the economy will follow their forecast exactly (it won’t), then in only 14 years an annual reduction of 0.42% becomes “a 6% reduction”.

    But why stop there? By 2100 this will have become a 30% reduction, and in the year 2525 (if man is still alive) the economy will have fallen to one sixth of its present value. Oh woe is us. Better hang on tight to nurse, then.

  37. EU Steve

    and the EU is a deep free trade area with a few added extras

    When you started coming out with all this crap 3 days ago, for a time I honestly thought it was all just one big spoof.

    But no, it really isn’t a spoof – and hence you’ve got to be either the most complete cretin or, perhaps more likely, some sort of habitual liar (for the cause)!

  38. Steve>

    You’re wasting your time. We went through all of this not long ago, and it turns out that when these numpties are confronted with the hard evidence which proves them wrong, they simply deny it – a bit like Ritchie does when he’s proven wrong. There’s no point arguing with religious nutcases, which is basically what Ecks & Co are here: it’s a position of faith for them, and any evidence which contradicts it must be denigrated.

  39. “I’ll be out seeing a few clients today, so posting will be light from now on. You’ll have to find someone else’s posts to nitpick (missing the point btw) without addressing the key issues.”

    This is light posting?

  40. Dave – you make a valid point.

    In that, to some extent, this is indeed one of belief – as in how do we want to be ruled.

    if people pretend that it has nothing at all to do with that, they get called on it.

  41. Thanks Dave

    You’re right, but several people here actually seem to want to go be open minded. I’ll keep buggering on for a while and see how it goes.

  42. “Ecks.I know you’re angry.but you can’t tell me clearly and precisely why. ”

    You are a treasonous young snot who is being paid to sell out his own nation and people (assuming you are not faux-UK) and an obvious liar and grade-z SJW con artist following an cheesy template given you by the tinpot tyrannical scum of the E(U)arth. I have outlined 7 reasons for my belief that you are a paid hack already on other threads. To which can be added an 8th– the huge gaps in your even basic knowledge. Le Pen and Wilders (who hate the fucking EU ) would encourage the EU to attack us for leaving and breaking the same bastard organisation they also despise? That is so dumb it clearly indicates that while largely mouthing someone else’s words you are also trying out a few SJW inspired numb-nutted ploys of your own. Without any real knowledge behind them. You are as the Yanks used to say, a lousy punk, who is helping to line the people of this country up for endless tyranny, economic collapse and Islamic takeover.

    Other than that I have nothing against you.

    Still more:

    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85984

  43. “So leaving the EU will not change anything but will change everything for the better.

    Brexiteers are utterly confused.”

    Absolutely not: you’re confusing the status of trade agreements with the deeper political and fiscal integration represented by the EU (which is more than a trade bloc). The progression of the latter stops, for the UK, with Leave, although it will take time to disentangle unwanted political links from the ones worth preserving. The article is about trade agreements.

  44. “The fall in GDP is predicated on EU countries imposing tariffs …”

    Presumably by governments that never looked at their own countries entries in the EU-UK trade balance table. “We’ll stop that export surplus we’ve got with them! That will teach them!”
    Only Ireland runs a (modest) trade deficit with the UK.

  45. Dave–SJW pricks to the barricades is it.?

    What a surprise that a self-hating clown like you wants the country destroyed. You’ll thrive Davy Boy in your regionalised shithole with wicked whites smashed at last in your multi-culti paradise.

    Except you won’t. Before you know it they’ll be 40 million followers of the RoP here. And the only good thing about that is how they’ll make rubbish like you and Stevie crawl on a daily basis. If there is one bright spot to the future its that the scum of the left and their fellow-travellers will get their comeuppance and the hands of those they helped import.

  46. CHF – But trade deals are only one part of it. What about all the extra bits of red tape, civil servants not answering the phone etc etc. Populist politicians will call for that and get it. As I said, before, it will be skirmishes breaking out left and right.

    That stuff is perhaps more important to market access than tariffs. The EU helps cut through that

  47. “. The EU helps cut through that”

    Ha ha ha. Ha ha ha. Here are two. Have you ever applied for a research grant within the EU, and within the UK? Have you ever interacted with the EU’s IP system, and with the UK’s IP system (trademarks, patents)?

  48. CHF – the EU is not perfect. But if you think it’s bad now…

    And why would it be any better with any other part of the world? Europe’s where we are and what we’ve got. We can only try to make the best of it.

  49. “What about all the extra bits of red tape, civil servants not answering the phone etc etc”

    Civil Servants not answering the phone?

    The future is to be fucked to avoid that? When you can’t get the phone number of anyone who matters anyway? And when they’d sicc the security services on you if you did get thro’.

    Fuckwittery.

    Hey Davy–is this the “hard evidence” that you and junior Evil are supplying so much of?

    More:

    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85971

  50. Ersatz Steve @ 8.30 am: Ecks. I’ll be out seeing a few clients today, so posting will be light from now on.

    Ersatz Steve then posts again at 8.31, 10.25, 10.35, 10.38, 10.57, 11.03, 11.12, 11.20, 11.41 and 11.51am.

    Can’t have been many clients in this morning. Tell us Ersatz Steve, how many dischcloths did you sell in 1 hour and 54 mins?

  51. “And why would it be any better with any other part of the world”

    I’ve interacted with other governments, and most of them are fine. The EU always has a strong Eastern Bloc feel about it, I don’t know why.

  52. Steve: I’ll keep buggering on for a while and see how it goes.

    Why not try buggering off instead?

  53. CHF – It’s not perfect. But as I said yesterday, there are a new generation of reformists coming in places like France and Italy. This could be the chance to really start getting to grips with all the stuff that needs doing. Who said it would be easy, but the prize is huge

  54. “What about all the extra bits of red tape”

    To be fair to the EU, although it has produced its own share I suppose, the effect on most other countries has probably been the opposite from the UK (effectively de-regulation not more regulation).

    Short of the UK joining the Euro and Schengen (probably), I really don’t see any scope for increasing influence on EU activity from now on. All policy is oriented towards full political and fiscal integration. That’s what they want and what they’ve got. I’m not even sure the EU Commission really cares very much any more about trade.

  55. “Short of the UK joining the Euro and Schengen (probably),”

    and if some of the Remainers have that in mind, and I’d be surprised if none of them do, that ought to be spelt out in advance of the referendum.

  56. “Watch out, those windmills are getting away…”

    If by that Davy you mean that perhaps too many of the once proud and brave people of this nation have morphed into crawling middle-class Marxoid shite like you –you may be correct. If that is so the country is finished –and if your gutless, SJW anti-survival attitudes are shared widely enough likely Western civilisation is finished too. I hope not.

    As I say I hope you live long enough to get your teeth kicked out by what your stupid and scummy mentality is going to bring you.

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer and more deserving guy.

    My regret is that your turpitude will bring the same fate on other, far better people who don’t deserve it.

  57. CHF –

    “the effect on most other countries has probably been the opposite from the UK (effectively de-regulation not more regulation).”

    yes, exactly, and a richer, less red-tape bound France, Italy, Spain etc is good news for the UK too as these are key markets.

    The UK engaged with the EU for the first and only time under Blair, but that was blown off course by Iraq. It’s never been tried for more than six years. Let’s vote Remain and give it a good crack

  58. Stewie:

    “It’s not perfect. But as I said yesterday, there are a new generation of reformists coming in places like France and Italy.”

    islam you mean?

    “This could be the chance to really start getting to grips with all the stuff that needs doing. ”

    They already made a start–Madrid , Paris , islamtown itself.

    ” Who said it would be easy, but the prize is huge”

    Don’t they know it.

    It profits a man nothing to lose his soul for the whole world–but for the EU?

    More:

    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85953

  59. “The UK engaged with the EU for the first and only time under Blair, but that was blown off course by Iraq. It’s never been tried for more than six years. Let’s vote Remain and give it a good crack”

    Lets stay because less red tape–WTF???. Bliar certainly dropped the red tape when it came to removing UK due process with the EAW.

    Next “Cutting your own arm off–come on –we’ve never really tried it apart from a bit of self harm with a razor blade. The social security payments will be huge”.

    You give them a good crack Stewie– yours. They will probably pay you for that as well.

    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85948

    An esp good one for you not to look at Spewie–keep the soundbites coming.

  60. Ecksy>

    At this point they came in sight of thirty forty windmills that there are on plain, and as soon as Don Quixote saw them he said to his squire, “Fortune is arranging matters for us better than we could have shaped our desires ourselves, for look there, friend Sancho Panza, where thirty or more monstrous giants present themselves, all of whom I mean to engage in battle and slay, and with whose spoils we shall begin to make our fortunes; for this is righteous warfare, and it is God’s good service to sweep so evil a breed from off the face of the earth.”

    “What giants?” said Sancho Panza.

    “Those thou seest there,” answered his master, “with the long arms, and some have them nearly two leagues long.”

    “Look, your worship,” said Sancho; “what we see there are not giants but windmills, and what seem to be their arms are the sails that turned by the wind make the millstone go.”

    “It is easy to see,” replied Don Quixote, “that thou art not used to this business of adventures; those are giants; and if thou art afraid, away with thee out of this and betake thyself to prayer while I engage them in fierce and unequal combat.”

    So saying, he gave the spur to his steed Rocinante, heedless of the cries his squire Sancho sent after him, warning him that most certainly they were windmills and not giants he was going to attack. He, however, was so positive they were giants that he neither heard the cries of Sancho, nor perceived, near as he was, what they were, but made at them shouting, “Fly not, cowards and vile beings, for a single knight attacks you.”

    A slight breeze at this moment sprang up, and the great sails began to move, seeing which Don Quixote exclaimed, “Though ye flourish more arms than the giant Briareus, ye have to reckon with me.”

    So saying, and commending himself with all his heart to his lady Dulcinea, imploring her to support him in such a peril, with lance in rest and covered by his buckler, he charged at Rocinante’s fullest gallop and fell upon the first mill that stood in front of him; but as he drove his lance-point into the sail the wind whirled it round with such force that it shivered the lance to pieces, sweeping with it horse and rider, who went rolling over on the plain, in a sorry condition. Sancho hastened to his assistance as fast as his ass could go, and when he came up found him unable to move, with such a shock had Rocinante fallen with him.

    “God bless me!” said Sancho, “did I not tell your worship to mind what you were about, for they were only windmills? and no one could have made any mistake about it but one who had something of the same kind in his head.”

    “Hush, friend Sancho,” replied Don Quixote, “the fortunes of war more than any other are liable to frequent fluctuations; and moreover I think, and it is the truth, that that same sage Friston who carried off my study and books, has turned these giants into mills in order to rob me of the glory of vanquishing them, such is the enmity he bears me; but in the end his wicked arts will avail but little against my good sword.”

    http://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/996/pg996-images.html

  61. Is this BBC4 now Dave.?

    I read Cervantes long ago.

    And if Don Quixote is who I am –I would rather perish with sword in hand than crawl to the marxoid shite of the “modern” age.

    And if a self-hating worm like you is the voice of the modern age, if your skewed, sluied vision of multi-culti hell is the wave of the future you are welcome to it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfHnzYEHAow

  62. EU Steve

    You are persistent – that I will grant you. Amongst the welter of claims that many have already refuted, one sticks out for me.

    ‘It’s not perfect. But as I said yesterday, there are a new generation of reformists coming in places like France and Italy’

    What evidence do you have that ‘reformists’ are coming on to the scene in France and Italy? Please send over, even if in French or Italian as this deserves a wider audience…..

  63. One of the arguments I heard from the Remainers was that Brexit would result in a drop in house prices. Wey hey! Wonderful. Vote leave. The best thing that could happen to house prices is a significant drop.

    Elsewhere I also heard Remainers claim that Brexit would result in increased wages. Even better. Increased spending power *and* decreased housing costs. Double whammy. Go for it.

  64. Instead of “NHS, schools and defence” spending growing slower, reframe it as ‘Foreign aid, green shit and EU contributions’ being slashed.

    Steve said

    The UK engaged with the EU for the first and only time under Blair, but that was blown off course by Iraq. It’s never been tried for more than six years. Let’s vote Remain and give it a good crack

    Blair engaged with Europe probably because he saw himself as a contender for first proper EU president of a United States of Europe rather than the half dozen or so clowns they have now. And in that time our engagement required reducing the rebate, getting into an insane pissing contest over CO2 emissions*, throwing open our borders to migrants because the Islington set find it quaint to turn London into a human zoo and massively distracting the MoD through plans for the European Rapid Reaction Force and the European Carrier Group.

    * Insane because Blair didn’t understand what he was agreeing to – reducing emissions from all energy use when he was supposed to be negotiating on *electricity* emissions.

  65. “Renzi in Italy and Valls/Macron in France are post-Thatcherites.”

    What does that mean –they wrote her a letter once?

    And despite your venom over Trump. Le Pen and Wilders we are supposed to believe you admire Thatcher?

    ” The(y) get it and need our help”

    They can fry their own fish. We need our help.

  66. Ecksy>

    The point of the story, which seems to have escaped you, is that Don Quixote valiantly set his lance at imaginary foes.

  67. Tell you what FakeSteve. I’ll vote to Remain if you can get your merry band of post-Thatcherites (whatever that means) to publicly commit to abolishing CAP, CFP & EAW within 5 years.

    Those three are pretty low-hanging fruit, being clearly evil, and would demonstrate at least a minimal level of commitment to reform.

    Think you can get that done for us?

  68. MattyJ

    Well Blair gave up some of the UK rebate for some clear improvements to the CAP. Let’s give it a crack eh.

    Seeing as the common foreign policy is just guff, then that’s sorted.

    I’d have thought there was a lot of democratic support for the EAW, and that could well continue post Brexit anyway

  69. Dave: Your delusion is that you have no foes. Aside from my self the only way you have no enemies is that you ARE an enemy of Western Society and values.

    My enemies are the left and their clients –including you. That is a shit-load as well as a load of shit. You are a fantasist.

    Stevoid–“Well Blair gave up some of the UK rebate for some clear improvements to the CAP.”

    Improvements? What improvements exactly? Mr Facts? We have to bribe the cunts to have them even try to play fair.

    ” Let’s give it a crack eh.”

    Again–you give ’em–or more like –sell ’em yours.

    “Seeing as the common foreign policy is just guff, then that’s sorted.”

    Sez you Numpty–ever heard of the Ukraine. The septics have a hand in that –but no more than the meddling, empire-building shite of the EU.

    “I’d have thought there was a lot of democratic support for the EAW, and that could well continue post Brexit anyway”

    There is no support for arbitrary arrest, detention and forced export to Euro-shitholes without due process of British law. You are a God-damned liar.

    The scum of ZaNu /BluLab may want to carry on the EAW. But they will be stopped. Once we break the EU then we can put far more pressure on the poli-scum in Westmonster.

    Which is what the dirty bastards are frightened of and are desperate –hence you–to avoid.

  70. The Meissen Bison

    Steve: Well Blair gave up some of the UK rebate for some clear improvements to the CAP.

    Yes, criminally stupid of him to do it on trust.

    Let’s give it a crack eh.

    You can’t seriously believe that the EU still has it somewhere in mind to honour that bargain.

    The history of UK membership is that it gives ground and the ground so surrendered becomes part of the Acquis Communautaire while the quid pro quo becomes a dead letter.

  71. “Renzi in Italy and Valls/Macron in France are post-Thatcherites. The get it and need our help”

    No info on Renzi, but watching Valls on the telly most evenings and watching the frenzy around Macron simply tells me that France still lives and dreams with the politicians of their past and their newly-minted clones. There’s not a man visible in the French political lineup who could run a more or less free market, non-union-controlled country, nor any who show any sign of getting to grips with what it would take to drag France away from its current rather horrible state.

    All personal opinion, rather than spreadsheeted data, but still.

    And, in the tradition of anecdata, chatting with honest working men in France, they seem to have the same general view of the situation. (Of course, always easy to see one’s own opinions in the words of others, but still)

  72. Steve

    I am not sure how much help we could be to either of them, given the Hollande and Renzi governments’ abysmal popularity ratings – and for both Macron and Valls I am not sure they could quite be considered ‘post Thatcherite’, except in a purely chronological sense- that said I think we could do a better job of engaging, even unofficially, more liberal elements in the French and Italian body politic – it would be something the FO could do which would be useful….

  73. “I’d have thought there was a lot of democratic support for the EAW, and that could well continue post Brexit anyway”

    Nothing like giving “full faith and credit” to the Romanian and Bulgarian judicial systems. Greece and several others have been troublesome enough. May’s opting back in to that was iniquitous.

  74. “yes, exactly, and a richer, less red-tape bound France, Italy, Spain etc is good news for the UK too as these are key markets.”

    I wouldn’t disagree with that, but we’ve done all we can now in that regard, unless as I say we join the Euro (and maybe Schengen). That Venn diagram showing the relationship of the various countries and European arrangements made it perfectly clear that in the EU, we’re entirely on our own (Denmark is also outside the Euro at the moment, but inside the Fiscal Compact).

  75. Bloke/Van – you might be right about Italy and France, but how about giving it a go? As I have said to ….

    …CHF, the UK has never properly engaged with the EU. Blair had a small window, but was faced with Gaullist resistance. Times are different now. The appetite for a rethink in the EU is growing.

    What I don’t get is this:
    The UK economy is doing pretty well, so why change a winning formula? So much of the criticism is speculation of a doom laden future. And so many of the predictions of a sunny Brexited Britain test the boundaries of political reality.

    As a liberal conservative I’m instinctively wary of anyone promising that a revolution will solve all our problems.

  76. “May’s opting back in to that was iniquitous.”

    That’s another way in which “Remain” is not really the status quo. We supposedly have a permanent opt-out from various aspects of “ever closer union”, but all it takes is a government to opt back in, and we’re stuck with it for ever.

  77. “anyone promising that a revolution ”

    It’s not a revolution. It’s leaving an organisation to restore the constitutional state that pre-dated it by many years; a similar position as Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the United States, etc. It’s not exactly France, 1789.

  78. “The UK economy is doing pretty well, so why change a winning formula? So much of the criticism is speculation of a doom laden future. And so many of the predictions of a sunny Brexited Britain test the boundaries of political reality.”

    Have you read Tim’s latest article? It addresses this criticism

  79. CHF – yes, it’s reverting back to where we were in 1973. Now of course a lot has changed in the UK since then, but the UK was an utter mess in then. Now it’s doing great.

    And please it’s “ever closer union between the PEOPLE’S of Europe” – that phrase is so inoffensive, but the spin is very effective

  80. Tomsmith – all respect to our host and Mr Osborne’s department, but there are so many moving parts regarding Brexit that we cannot possibly know how the economy would react. We know what we have, and it’s OK.

  81. Why is this presented as a dichotomy? Is it just that Brexit and Bremain just about work as portmanteaus, but Br-take-over-the-show-and-run-it-properly doesn’t roll off the tongue?

    I have to say, it’s another masterful bit of politics by the Eurocrats: the one option they most fear, and which would actually make a real difference, isn’t even on the table.

    We’ve plenty of evidence that the Eurocrat politicians are rather better than our domestic ones at responding to incentives in the most self-serving way, so the policy of giving them sane incentives is surely worth a try.

  82. Steve and his big brotha strike back.

    By Steve-o doing a Mrs Doyle “Give it a go—GO ON,GO ON , GO ON”–repeat 2 million times.

    Bliar met “Gaullist resistance”–if you mean by that they should have hung Princess Toni upside down with his head in a bucket of piss–Algeria -style–there we have agreement.

    Appetite for a rethink: repeated lies.

    UK economy doing well: more repeated lies. You have had links to a massive well of facts refuting that deceitful shite–but you “don’t look at videos”.

    Just piss off and stop wasting peoples time..

    “As a liberal conservative”– bull-fucking shit. As a leftist traitor who advocates massive extension of state power because he is being paid to do so more like.

    “Back to 1973”–all you know about 1973 you got from your Dad. Like I said he would still have time to go in 73 before his dick hairs came through.

    73 was not too hot because of a home-grown version of exactly the kind of socialist evil you and your euro-scum pals are still peddling.

    “Ever closer union between the peoples of Europe. ”

    You are an dozy little liar. The people of Europe don’t count for jack shit in the pseudo-Keynsian paradise such as you advocate. Closer union—-as in replacement by and submission to islam is the only consideration the people of Europe are going to get from their masters.

    Big Brotha Dave:
    “We’ve plenty of evidence that the Eurocrat politicians are rather better than our domestic ones at responding to incentives in the most self-serving way, so the policy of giving them sane incentives is surely worth a try.”

    In so far as any meaning can be ascribed to your fuckwit verbiage , your point seems to be that if we get out from under the EU slime –Pig-Fuck will fuck us outside the EU. So we might as well stay in.

    Camoron needs to be removed from his supposed job and once free of Europe we need rapid fire and sustained action to break all the leftist scum who have come close to breaking us. BluLab, ZaNu , Unis, SCS– all the fucking lot need to be under attack from day one of freedom. SJWs like you also Dave. If you get your living from the public tit that needs to be cut urgently.

    Leaving the EU is just step one to saving Western Civilisation.

  83. So, just wondering, how do the sane* Brexiters feel about having Ecksy frothing at the mouth like this?

    (*Or at least, not obviously rabid.)

  84. Not being an SJW wanker like you a don’t care what others think Dave.

    I’m past being reasonable with liars and con-men who are stepping up for oppression and tyranny under the guise of business as usual.

    Don’t make any mistake–this isn’t just some minor matter. If we don’t beat these creeps now the future of this country is kaput.

    SJW Dave doesn’t give a shit if the UK is Balkanised and Islamised. Which is what will happen under EU rule. Cos he is a leftist who has some fantasy that those grateful scrubbed-faced members of the assimilated RoP will be so full of gratitude to the leftist dross who facilitated their invasion that he will be set for life. And won’t it teach those nasty whites a lesson. Not so high and mighty now are they?

  85. I love Janan Ganesh of the FT’s recent Tweet:

    “Cameron and Osborne don’t get enough credit for boiling the piss of these jokers. Are you doing as much for the gaiety of nations?”

  86. How do Bremainers (is that really a word now!) feel about being on the same team as Cameron and Corbyn? It’s kinda silly to judge an issue by who supports it.

    Nothing against you Mr Ecks. You just keep doing your thing, man.

  87. MattyJ

    Corbyn is opposed to the EU. His speech the other day was all “Labour thinks…” The guy never changes his mind, but this is politics.

    He is right. If you’re anti capitalist and anti West, then the EU is your enemy

  88. Steve–““Cameron and Osborne don’t get enough credit for boiling the piss of these jokers. Are you doing as much for the gaiety of nations?

    So here we see the “liberal conservative” in action. He wants not only the nation destroyed but he enjoys the jeering of leftist scum. Who are writing in praise of still more deceitful BluLab liars and bullshiters who are using every dirty trick in the book to impose their will on the British people.

  89. ” If you’re anti capitalist and anti West, then the EU is your enemy”

    Brazen and grotesque inversion of truth.

    The EU is a Keynesian shithole weighed down unto death by debt and headed for negative interest rates and in-bank bail-outs with the money saved in ordinary peoples accounts.

    Several links to fact-filled vids on the real economy have been sent–but Jnr “doesn’t look at videos”

  90. @AntiSteve: which is one reason why it’s not useful to care about which politician supports what side. They’re picking sides based on political expediency and self-interest, not based on what is best for the country and Europe as a whole.

  91. Tim, I know you don’t bar people from commenting on your site but the EU troll has fucked it up good and proper. I’m off here until after the referendum.

  92. Dave

    Ganesh makes an excellent point that frothing and panting over the EU is very unBritish (I’m somewhat guilty as charged, ahem) and thus off putting to to humans/voters.

    So please Mr BBC give Hannan, Montgomerie, Carswell et al more air time.

  93. “Ganesh makes an excellent point that frothing and panting over the EU is very unBritish (I’m somewhat guilty as charged, ahem) and thus off putting to to humans/voters.”

    So defending your country is unBritish. A direct insult to the vast numbers of Britons who have died to preserve the freedoms that young snot like Steve=0 now wants to wipe his arse on.

    It would –and will be– interesting to see the reaction of millennial shite like you when danger comes around again.

    You really must be reaching the end of your cheat-sheet son. Making a fuss is un British and unmanly.

    So is going along with EU tyranny.

  94. Which proves that you can’t spell as well as being a scummy young-snot traitor.

    Ask your pal Ganesh for lessons. He appears to have an elephants arse on his shoulders instead of the traditional elephants head but that is appropriate since your arse is the main orifice you talk out of.

  95. I wasn’t talking to you, I’m ignoring you, and ingratiating myself with the others. You’re so vain you probably think this post is about you

  96. Euro troll says:
    April 19, 2016 at 9:44 am
    Has anyone else noticed that “ecks” is an anagram of “cunt”?

    Hmmm

  97. “I’m ignoring you”

    No change there then. You have been ignoring anything of substance said to you all along.

    More than enough links have been sent to you refuting your “Britain is doing ok ” crap and still more about the dodgy economic status of the EU. But you “don’t look at videos”. Of course not –you are a paid troll and your purpose is to repeat glib cheat-sheet inanities over and over. Which you have done –along with bollocks from Twitter.

  98. Mike Smithson on Political Betting suspects someone’s been buying “Leave” on Betfair to keep the price up.

    If anyone’s got any money they’d like to waste, I’m for hire. I can do calm, non-ranty Brexiteer trolling. I know, what a far-fetched concept

  99. Steve–Given the level of your performance on here–Do us a favour and keep throwing your trade to the competition.

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