They’re stretching, aren’t they?

Britain is facing an “economic rupture” that will bring misery to millions of people if the country votes to leave the EU, the Government warns.

Businesses will flee, factories will close and jobs will be lost, with “disastrous” consequences for families,

according to a senior Cabinet minister.

Stephen Crabb, the Work and Pensions Secretary, warns that a “reckless” vote for Brexit would trigger an economic “shock” akin to the 2008 banking crash.

Rains of fire, cats lying down with dogs….

99 thoughts on “They’re stretching, aren’t they?”

  1. Colossal economic shocks are coming anyway in or out of the EU. Out we will have more chance of surfing them without extra legions of political and bureaucratic scum around our necks.

    I wonder if they are trying to shift Brexit into the frame for their own decades of taxing, regulating and printing cash. Which will shortly be coming home to roost.

  2. Good morning from the Brussels Lubyanka

    Brexiteers dismiss the chance of EU countries self harming. “Of course they’ll do a deal with the UK,” they opine.

    But France (to cite just one) regularly self harms:
    35 hour week
    The prime mover behind the euro
    Regularly capitulates to its Communist trade unions
    Has a 75% top tax rate
    Etc etc

    There is a high chance many EU countries will self harm out of political revenge. We’ll all lose

  3. Well done. You’re insisting both that France enjoys economic suicide and also that we must be chained to them?

  4. Not wasting much time on your bullshit False (and treasonous) Steveo–cos I’m not helping pay for your drugs.

    Your argument is that the euro-trash (or rather the political scum of Europe since lots of ordinary people over there want out of the EU) are so stupid and vicious that they will cut their own throats just to get at us. And so we should continue to allow such evil, moronic scum to have ever more control over every aspect of out lives by staying under their thumb in the EU,

    As far as I care the entire French nation could do a Jonestown tomorrow and I will still support my country regaining its freedom. As a first step to the mass destruction of political and bureaucratic scum worldwide. And their paid weasels such as you.

    You bosses back in islamtown won’t be very pleased with you posting some load of crap about euro”self-harm”. It’s so dumb that it can’t be on your list of instructions on how to troll etc. You are on course to not get paid sonny.

  5. Tim
    France has been strangling it’s economy for decades but yet the UK economy is doing fine. The EU is a check on the extent of self harm.

    I’m not just talking tariffs.it’s the mischievous red tape they’d be able to apply to all UK businesses and individuals

  6. And more:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYtbEJfQtDI

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fr_LwF6JnKg

    This info was already presented to you but you never responded to it Stevie-boy.Despite your self-proclaimed love of “facts”.

    Because you are too busy playing video games in between having to post the next bit from your EU troll cheat-sheet. And the odd attempt of your own–as in the bizarre missive above.

    And you probably wouldn’t understand what was being said if you did listen .

  7. Ecks. I’m not watching videos, as I said before.

    Think and write for yourself. Being forced to put things into short, pithy sentences helps me think more clearly. I’m sure it would work wonders for you too.

  8. The Meissen Bison

    Well, perhaps it’s time to dig out the Treaty of Troyes and enforce it?

    Nice birthday present for HM the Q.

  9. Ivor – I’ve heard of straw men, but here we’re talking about straw cats and dogs. Ex-straw-dinary

  10. I would have thought leaving the EU by the way we came in (EFTA) rather than jumping out of the window would come with a very modest cost at most.

  11. Gareth – one example. Switzerland took five years to negotiate access to the EU market for “alternative” investment funds (AIFMD). This is multi billion business for the City of London.

    The Swiss got that limited level of good will by being in Schengen, contributing to the EU budget, and their political class being pro-EU.

    That’s just one example. Imagine all the little niggley ways EU countries could frustrate Brits with no recourse.

    Personally I would have thought it’ll be an utter mess, with everyone losing.

  12. Imagine all the little niggley ways EU countries could frustrate Brits with no recourse.

    I’m sure you’re right. There will be a certain amount of this but these will be little bilateral skirmishes and each of them short-lived.

    At one point in the distant-ish past, France declared that all Japanese VCRs had to be processed through a customs post in Poitiers (or something like that). I forget what the Japanese reaction was – probably a reprisal arrangement for French spirits having to be stored in bond in a hangar on the Izu peninsular.

  13. Bison – Yes, but the French market is much more important to the UK than it is to Japan. They and other rEU states will be looking to make a strong point.
    Again, Brexiteers assume Europeans will act logically.

  14. I was once minded to consider a ‘Remain’ vote because European politicians have higher IQs than us, so are likely to devise better regulations for the greatest good and for the greatest number.
    And was told the Norway option where we would still have to contribute a 1/4 of what we do now for market access would be bad for the UK because we’d have no say in the Commission or the Council.
    But if so, the UK political influence is bringing the EU average down, so it would actually be better to have no influence at all at Board level, and just have influence as a customer.

  15. Gareth

    I would have thought leaving the EU by the way we came in (EFTA) rather than jumping out of the window would come with a very modest cost at most.

    We know that the current arrangement not only doesn’t work, but increasingly cannot work in the future if the EU is to progress. The UK is neither in the euro nor in Schengen. The eurozone isn’t working. The one size fits all strategy cannot continue indefinitely if the EU (whatever that is) wants to move forwards successfully.

    Therefore what best comes out of this in the future must be some sort of different arrangement, and not necessarily just for the UK. An inner / outer core, or some extension of EFTA / EEA, or something looser / quite different? That’s the challenge, irrespective of this referendum.

    There is no black or white about this, however the referendum question is framed. However, if we vote to stay in, (imv) we are simply hiding our heads in the sand and pretending everything is fine. And of course all those sucking at the EU teat will be perfectly happy.

    If we vote Leave, and article 50 is invoked, my own view (hope?) is that it must surely provoke a more substantial rethink about direction (and for the EU as well).

    Partially relevant to this, “EU Steve” actually did make one half useful point on the thread two days ago when he talked about sovereignty being shared (globally) in any case – however in his response to Tim, it was no valid argument for being in the EU.

    Christopher Booker (and North) has regularly made this point, most recently here:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/04/16/global-governance-is-making-the-eu-irrelevant/

    Most of us know that the current arrangement with the EU cannot continue as it is (successfully). Unfortunately, however, this current debate will probably continue to be reduced to one of dishonest scaremongering on both sides, and be won by those who can scare / lie most.

    Ie probably the inners as they have most (financially) to lose. There are increasingly large numbers who have vested (money) interests in staying in – eg, the entire EU infrastructure and anybody associated with it, politicians, charities, and many more who receive grants or other contributions to argue on behalf of the EU.

  16. Steve – but the UK market is more important to France than the French market is to the UK.

    While I agree with you that there will be petty sillinesses here and there, each incident will be quickly resolved once retaliatory measures are threatened.

  17. …2% of EU output is exported to the UK, 14% of UK output goes to the EU.

    Well that’s just silliness. So 27 countries as a bloc represent a greater volume of trade than one country on its own. Quelle surprise!

    The relationships would henceforth be bilateral, wouldn’t they?

  18. Bison

    The EU countries would surely coordinate their action. They couldn’t let a country leave and it be seen to be successful. And it would be a tag team of 27 against the UK. It could be constant low level guerilla war with skirmishes popping up all over the place.

    For what benefit? So an extra couple of billion to be poured into the NHS black hole, so that we can have no say in EU law making, so that our main trading partners become more protectionist and less Atlanticist.

  19. “so that we can have no say in EU law making”

    Why do we need EU law at all? Most of that now has little to do with trade.

    ” so that our main trading partners become more protectionist and less Atlanticist.”

    If they want to become the Cuba of the North, that’s their own problem, surely? They’re limited in what they can do if they want to trade with others because many trade matters are now dealt with globally.

  20. CHF.

    Economists can’t predict what will happen exactly. But just run it through the smell test.

    EU will remain the key overseas market for many years. EU regs matter.

    And a weaker EU would be our problem for geopolitical as well as economic reasons

  21. Steve, so the EU will do all they can to harm our exports to the EU? So what. There is a whole world out there with dozens of other countries that we can deal with instead. It’s called competition. So the EU would end up cutting off their own nose to spite their face.

  22. “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ-fQmmgtDo”

    Another video for you not to watch Stevie-boy.

    Cos you “think” for yourself. The product of which ie “Why we should fuck ourselves to save EU political and bureaucratic scum from self-harm” –we see above.

    Now we are supposed to cower in fear from what the mighty fucking EU is going to do with us. So much for saving them from self harm.

    Wasting more time on a moron like you constitutes “self-harm” Stewie–sorry, Stevie.

    This one is a paid troll. Treating him as an ordinary commentator is likely just boosting his pay packet.

    1–Nobody has heard of him before. He comes on with the name of an already well-known commenter and does not have the basic decency to add a modifier like “Steve 2” or whatever to avoid confusion. He doesn’t follow the blog .

    2–Claims he was on Twitter and broadly shares Tim’s free-market beliefs BUT not when it comes to the EU. Classic astroturf tactic. “I agree with you BUT…”

    3–His arguments are superficial sound-bites. He peddles the line “Things are OK now ( totally untrue)and they could get better if we would just play along” etc. ”

    4–Doesn’t respond to facts or argument. He don’t watch videos cos he thinks for himself . He skims over any points made and accuses us of being superficial and not caring about facts while doing exactly that himself. More sound-bites follow.

    5–His wording is weird: “Atlanticist”, “projecting soft power throughout Europe”. That sounds like at least extracts from a script to me. Who the fuck talks like that in the real world? The twat could have swallowed a Dictionary of Politics but his general intelligence doesn’t come over as that great. He is a typing soundbite. And he will dismiss this post with a few one-liners. Cos he isn’t getting paid by the word.

    6-Not on any other threads save EU ones. I think that is because he won’t get paid for other input. We will see if his appearances here last any longer that the Referendum campaign. Doubt it.

    7–He comes over as young snot. Arnald for example spews hatred at me and others and I spew it back. With Arnald and DBC you at least can see that they really believe the evil crap they spout. Steve jnr however is on a juvie “We know what you are, What am I ?” level worthy of PeeWee Herman.
    He talks about how bad things were in 1973? I suspect his Dad was still waiting for dick hairs to appear in 1973.

    I’m not wasting any more time on his bullshit. If he ever does have any “arguments” that need to be answered I might re-join the thread but I’m not helping him fill out his timesheet.

  23. Sad mad. As I pointed out above, EU member states have a history of doing counter productive stuff. Brexiteers are betting the farm this will change.

    Ecks tl;dr

  24. “EU will remain the key overseas market for many years. EU regs matter.”

    There’s no reason to suffer 90% of the impositions outside trade for flexibility on the remaining 10% that might have to do with trade.

    Even as regards the “free movement” aspect, it’s notable that so far that’s been working almost entirely in favour of citizens of other EU countries working in the UK. Allowing for the several Tims here, there has apparently been relatively little traffic in the other direction (based on a study that was published recently, although I haven’t got the link to hand). Given that, one suspects that the beneficiaries will find it in their interests to be a little accommodating.

  25. EU Steve

    Imagine….your young daughter returns from school saying that the ‘gang’ of friends she plays with is introducing so many strict rules – no curved bananas in lunchboxes, parents mustn’t use roundup to kill weeds, etc – that she’s wondering whether to leave. She’d like to be friends, but not have to meet all their silly rules. She’s mentioned leaving the gang, but some members have reacted angrily. She wants to know what she should do. She fears she’ll be bullied if she leaves…

    Would you advise her to stay in and accept the rules so she can enjoy the social benefits of membership, adding that they could turn very nasty if she leaves and making new friends is hard…? Or would you say that the threats of bullies are often hollow and that she’ll soon make other friends if she leaves?

  26. CHF. Yes the interests of Europeans is to keep trade and migration flowing. But it’s the elites who will be out for revenge egged on by Le Pen, Grillo, Wilders etc

  27. If they’re only going to be nice if we do as they say, who’s to say what they might ask for next? The clause in Cameron’s agreement added by the French (I think it was) expressly excludes being able to block measures adopted that are related to the Euro, but since that scope is quite likely to be interpreted broadly, we’re probably going to find that clause invoked against the UK whenever convenient, especially since nearly every other EU country is in the Euro bloc, and all new EU members must join it.

  28. Theo – if the potential other friends were Donald Trump, a nationalist India and populist China I’d sympathise, and suggest my daughter was as charming, polite and hard working as possible and try to win them over.

    I’d also point out that head girl Angela seems a decent sort and maybe she should sit next to her more often

  29. CHF. Of course there are risks whatever we do. But the UK has the chance to work with the good guys to turn things around. Merkel is OK renzi is too , maybe macron will win in France.

    Let’s stand with the good guys. Don’t let the nasties get what they want. Let’s not leave the pitch before the game’s lost.

  30. The EU countries would surely coordinate their action.

    They surely would not. There isn’t the remotest chance that country x would want to sour its bilateral diplomatic and trade relations with the UK in order to support a barrier put in place against the UK by country y.

    They couldn’t let a country leave and it be seen to be successful.

    That would be the position inside the Berlaymont, for sure but you keep overlooking the bilateral nature of all these relationships. The 27 other EU states are very far from being an homogenous block.

    Consider: the non Euro countries are semi-detached, Ireland considers itself linked more to the UK economy than to the wider EU sans the UK and would likely follow Brexit with their own departure.

    There would be chaos, I agree, after Brexit. On mainland Europe.

  31. Bison: Again, you assume logic will prevail. Why is that?

    And Ireland? Are you kidding? I’m just back from Easter there, 1916 and all that. The EU is their escape from the UK’s shadow.

    And Ireland would love to host all the multinationals that use the UK to avoid tax in the EU. And the asset management firms and and and….

  32. Theo. I’m warming to that theme…

    I’d also tell my daughter a bit of history. The other kids at school come from troubled families. Often they, their parents or grandparents lived in a tough estate where neighbours would often jump over the fence, kill family members and lock others in the cellar for years.

    I’d tell her that our family can be proud that often he parents and grandparents went in and sorted out these problem families and that things have been pretty quiet for a while. But I’d say we should prepare in case these problems reappeared.

    I’d also admonish her for being somewhat sulky and being unwilling to play nicely with the others. The other kids would like her, as they think she’s funny, rich and interesting, but they wont like her if she’s snobbish.

    Please, don’t clap

  33. Then I’d say, play nicely with the others, and this will help them learn how to behave politely in future.

    She can also feel good about this, and expect that these friends will do her favours in the future.

  34. Theo

    EU Steve

    Imagine….your young daughter returns from school saying that the ‘gang’ of friends she plays with is introducing so many strict rules – no curved bananas in lunchboxes, parents mustn’t use roundup to kill weeds, etc – that she’s wondering whether to leave. She’d like to be friends, but not have to meet all their silly rules. She’s mentioned leaving the gang, but some members have reacted angrily. She wants to know what she should do. She fears she’ll be bullied if she leaves…

    Would you advise her to stay in and accept the rules so she can enjoy the social benefits of membership, adding that they could turn very nasty if she leaves and making new friends is hard…? Or would you say that the threats of bullies are often hollow and that she’ll soon make other friends if she leaves?

    I would ask young Emily if the gang are demanding some of her pocket money for the privilege.

    When she looks up sheepishly and says “Yes, Daddy”, I would advise her confidently to tell the gang that she is leaving, but that she hopes they will all remain friends in any case. If they are nice about it, no problem, they will still be good friends (and perhaps more), but without the silly rituals.

    If some of them are horrible to her, then tell her that it’s quite obvious she has done the right thing. In fact, the nastier they are to her is all the proof she needs that getting out now was the best thing for her.

    Also tell her that, if some of them are nasty to her, it will not be all of them, and it might help others that are also quite unhappy in the gang realise that they don’t have to put up with the bullies, even if they do choose to stay themselves.

    If one of the bullies, and probably likely to be one of those who benefits from her pocket money, tells her that the other kids are all fat, or are ginger, or are called Donald, then tell her that he’s bound to say that because he’s the one that’s about to lose her pocket money.

    Tell Emily that she sounds like a very intelligent and sensible kid – she’ll most likely do very well in this world.

  35. Ahh . . . but how many on the Continent will have Exit Envy?

    ‘the Government warns’

    Individual politicians opinions are fine, but
    the government taking sides is unsavory.

  36. “Ireland considers itself linked more to the UK economy than to the wider EU sans the UK and would likely follow Brexit with their own departure.”

    One of my qualms about Leave is the effect on the relationship with Ireland, which is fairly normal now. Another round of Euro trouble might make their membership uncomfortable, but we’ll see.

  37. The Meissen Bison

    And Ireland? Are you kidding?

    No.

    And the East EU countries have no desire to swap Soviet hegemony with German ditto with ‘decent’ Angela who is prosecuting a TV comic for being very rude about Erdogan. And the Dutch who have voted against EU’s Ukraine policy.

    I’d ask you who are the “good guys” and who are the “nasties” but the game is already lost as is my interest in your opinions.

  38. I think Irish nationals resident in the UK get to vote in the referendum.
    I wonder if any of them incorrectly believe that it is EU membership that gave them ( and us ) free movement rights with each other.

  39. Bison – the continent will be 21 miles away whatever happens on 23rd June. The UK’s best hope it to get stuck in and carry on winning the argument.

    Banking on striking better relationships with the US, China and India is hardly an easy quick win is it?

  40. Stevie,

    “EU member states have a history of doing counter productive stuff. Brexiteers are betting the farm this will change.”

    EU member states can’t negotiate with the UK. Only the EU can (that’s why we want to leave). So we only have one organisation to deal with. It might take some time as the EU is atrocious at doing anything. In the meantime, the rest of the world would happily deal with us.

    Brexiters are not betting the farm will change. They want the farm to stay as crap and useless as the Euro and the EU has proved because there is a huge world outside of Europe. Being free of the EU’s shackles will mean we can accept anything from other countries and in return they will take our stuff.

  41. SMBL

    I’m not sure Brexiters want the farm to stay crap. It would actually be great if the useless buggers woke and smelt the coffee. It could be win-win all round?

    But there is absolutely zero chance of that if we meekly roll over on June 23rd simply because we’re scared or fearful of the consequences.

    But if it does stay crap (and bear in mind we’ve already had over 40 years to influence that process!), I would suggest best not to be shackled too closely as the corpse starts to rot.

    The argument – “unless we are shackled to it at that stage, we’ll be blamed” – is terribly defeatist, little different to a dissolving relationship where one can’t bring themself to take any action because the other might harm themself.

  42. SadMad – Here we go. One guy on here said our relations would be bilateral with each country , you say it will be with the EU. We just don’t know. Of course the UK would survive, but the cost is unknowable.

    PF – we are starting to win the argument in theEU – and just at that point, we might be leaving.

  43. @NotTheRealSteve: “PF – we are starting to win the argument in theEU”

    Got any evidence of this? Seems to me that Cameron went to the EU asking for some minor reforms and came back with nothing.

  44. “The EU countries would surely coordinate their action. They couldn’t let a country leave and it be seen to be successful. ”

    And these are the sort of ‘friends’ you want to be chained to? The sort of people who will actively seek your downfall if you attempt to leave their circle of influence?

    Thats not friends, thats a hostage situation.

  45. PF – we are starting to win the argument in theEU – and just at that point, we might be leaving.

    Delusional. That is not the conclusion that any rational intelligent human being could come to after watching the conclusion of Cameron’s recent “negotiations” with the EU.

    As was quoted at the time: “He didn’t ask for anything, and he didn’t even get that.” Do the maths…

    I can only suspect that “winning the argument” for people such as yourself means something radically different to what it means to the rest of us.

  46. @NotTheRealSteve: “the continent will be 21 miles away whatever happens on 23rd June.”

    So what? I think Tim’s pointed out here before that distance is pretty unimportant when it comes to world trade. The fraction of British exports that goes to the EU is now below 50% and is likely to continue to drop.

  47. EU Steve

    “The UK’s best hope it to get stuck in and carry on winning the argument.”

    The EU (as it then wasn’t) was born as a Franco-German ramp. Now, increasingly, it’s an informal German empire. All the arguments from the UK’s europhiliac elites are so much chaff and self-interest. They cannot provide a single convincing and positive argument for EU membership — not one. I suggest that the main concern of such elites is to prevent the continental peninsula becoming a unified nuclear-armed state able to erect barriers to UK goods and services, but they can’t say they suspect German motives for fear of the huge diplomatic repercussions. After all, England’s and the UK’s aim for the last 500 years has been to prevent any single power controlling Europe.

  48. ‘Now, increasingly, it’s an informal German empire.’

    Europe under German fascist control. Who could have dreamed it?

  49. EU Steve

    Also, you extended my story about a daughter’s playground dilemma to suit your own agenda – bringing in head girl, Angela, etc.

    My point was quite simple. If you are in a club whose rules are oppressive (eg where your membership fee is the second highest), why would you be bullied into staying a member by threats of what the other members might do to you if you left? Surrendering to bullying threats is craven. If the EU had confidence in itself, it would be stressing the vast benefits (if they existed!) of our membership, not making sotto voce threats.

    The whole EU edifice is a response to mid-20th century problems: it is no longer relevant. The CAP increases the price of our foodstuffs, while penalising third world farmers in order to support inefficient euro-peasants. And, overall, the EU is corrupt, inefficient and undemocratic.

  50. MattyJ – Cameron’s renegotiation is phoney. That’s 100% about Conservative Party management

    By winning the argument I mean more and more EU govt are adopting UK-like economics – Merkel is broadly there, Renzi in Italy is a Blairite, and so is the French PM.

  51. Jim – who said they were friends? These are colleagues with mutual interests. If we leave the club, why wouldn’t they feel they could shaft us.

    Countries don’t have friends

  52. MattyJ – the European continent will be the UK’s leading migrant and source of migrants for decades to come, whether we’re in or out.

    Also, 99.99% of this island’s wars have come from the continent. The future wont be much different

  53. Theo

    Yes it is German dominates because France is fucked and we are sulking on the sidelines. But the Germans aren’t happy leading. They have learned the lesson from 1933-1945 for sure. They need and want help

  54. Theo – the EU rules are clearly not oppressive to the UK because the economy is the most vibrant in Europe and London is the capital of the world.

    UK unemployment is only 5.5% – that’s brilliant. Why try to wreck the current formula when it’s working well?

  55. MattyJ – too many beers this afternoon, excuse me

    …the EU will be the UK’s leading market and source of migrants…

  56. ” Why try to wreck the current formula when it’s working well?”

    For one thing, it doesn’t stand still: there are already discussions about creating a common treasury and a common finance minster for the eurozone, which is a majority of EU countries, and eventually will be all but 2.
    Thanks in part to a clause in the proposed opt-out agreement, that’s an area where we have neither input nor veto.

    There has been a land-grab in foreign policy, and undoubtedly will be one in security and intelligence.
    That’s why “Remain” isn’t really a “status quo”: the proposed agreement itself creates a new situation (one that also hasn’t been tested for legal effectiveness).

  57. “They need and want help”

    They certainly don’t seem to be expressing that publicly by either word or deed. They seem to have their own preoccupations.

  58. The EU now resembles one of those large old companies, formed by successive mergers, with layers of upper and middle management (it even has many Presidents and VPs), with lots of grandiose initiatives, but surprisingly bad and frustrating at anything it takes on as a competence.

  59. CHF – Brexiteers keep predicting this future of European Super State. This can’t happen without treaty change and it wont happen. If it does happen, well leave then.

    Merkel is not comfortable in the lead. Germans have had 1933-45 shoved down their throats for 70 years. It freaks them out.

    Yes the euro is a mess, but what other grandiose initiatives do you mean? There is no foreign policy, no army, no health policy, no pension policy, no single police force… There’s a bit of prodding on carbon emissions, but it’s mainly just a deep single market.

  60. “the EU will be the UK’s leading market and source of migrants”

    No particular reason for this to be the case. Being in the EU has biased trade and immigration towards the EU. If we leave then that bias can be removed.

  61. Really Steve, not Liberal Yank

    “it’s an informal German empire…”

    I’m surprised it took me this long to come across this line of thinking. Well not really as once I understood the basic issues I haven’t paid as much attention to the debate.

    EU Steve,

    The claim that you are a paid troll comes up very frequently. Can you connect me with whoever is paying you? I am curious if the pay is enough to post thoughts that don’t agree with my views under a pseudonym.

  62. “who said they were friends? These are colleagues with mutual interests. If we leave the club, why wouldn’t they feel they could shaft us.”

    I repeat – you wish us to associate with countries who actively wish us malicious outcomes, even to the extent of harming themselves, if we don’t do what they want? What sort of people are so filled with hate that they wish harm others not only because they can, but also at the expense of their own well-being? Thats pretty fucked up.

  63. Jim. A poll out recently has Le Pen beating Hollande in the second round. Don’t you think she and her supporters are fueled by hate? The populist drive to punish the UK would be real. That’s democracy old fruit

  64. Jim

    And which countries would be bezzie mates? A Trump USA? Nationalist India? Autocratic China? Russia? Is a big lonely scarey world.

    Remember in July 1914 no one expected war. Don’t be complacent

  65. EU Steve

    A poll out recently has Le Pen beating Hollande in the second round. Don’t you think she and her supporters are fueled by hate? The populist drive to punish the UK would be real

    You made this (yet another) nonsense point earlier as well, here:

    egged on by Le Pen, Grillo, Wilders etc

    Le Pen, as your employers should have explained to you, has a quite different view, as (blindingly obviously) it would do no damage at all to her own anti-EU agenda:

    “If the British public were to vote to leave the European Union it would be the modern equivalent of the toppling of the Berlin Wall and herald the beginning of the end for the bloc, says Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front.”

    “Brexit would be marvellous – extraordinary – for all European peoples who long for freedom,”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12034914/Britain-leaving-EU-would-be-like-fall-of-Berlin-Wall-says-Marine-Le-Pen.html

    Ecks, I apologise, I should have followed your lead earlier – we are feeding the damned thing.

    And there really is no point, as I suspect the few here that read this blog aren’t generally the uninformed types who are going to be swayed by such crap…

    Jim – And which countries would be bezzie mates? A Trump USA? Nationalist India? Autocratic China? Russia? Is a big lonely scarey world.

    Remember in July 1914 no one expected war. Don’t be complacent

    OMG, he still thinks the EU is a credible substitute for NATO. Oh, but hang on – just two minutes ago above, there was no EU army.

  66. Is a big lonely scarey world

    I gave you some advice on that back on the other thread – go and hug your teddy bear.

  67. US, China, Canada, Australia, NZ, Singapore, India, etc. I think you’ll find that they add up to a lot more than 500m. Outside of the EU we can negotiate our own trade deals with these countries, plus the EU.

    I don’t understand this belief that leaving the EU means cuttings ourselves off. I’m from Australia, and yet I live and work in the UK. How is this possible; Australia’s not in the EU! I work with lot’s of Indians. But India’s not in the EU either! And UK companies trade with both of these non-EU countries! What manner of magic is this!

  68. For an example of what a free trade area should look like, take a gander at Australia and New Zealand. Free trade, free movement of people. But without an overbearing, supranational body overseeing it.

  69. ” A poll out recently has Le Pen beating Hollande in the second round. Don’t you think she and her supporters are fueled by hate? The populist drive to punish the UK would be real. That’s democracy old fruit”

    I thought the French Nationalist Left wanted out of the EU themselves? And if we leave it’ll make their job a lot easier? Why would they wish to punish us for having done exactly what they want to do themselves?

    ” Is a big lonely scarey world.”

    Such a big scary world that countries as diverse as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway and Switzerland (total population 76m, total gdp $3.9tn vs 65m and $2.8tn for the UK) are full of populations bricking themselves at the thought of being out alone in it. Not to mention virtually every other country in the world who isn’t in the EU, all of which have their own sovereignty and don’t give up their powers to supra-national bodies.

    I mean, what point exactly are you making? That Russia is going to invade an independent Britain, and the only thing stopping it is the massed ranks of the EU Commission? What exactly is India or China going to do to us that they couldn’t do to the entire EU if they so chose? As for ‘Trumps America’ thats just your SJW mask slipping – I suspect that Donald Trump would be a better friend of the UK than Hilary Clinton would be, or Obama has been for that matter.

  70. EU Steve

    “PF I got to the second para of your bile and gave up. You wasted your time chief

    Yes, I know, my apologies, it was over (what you described earlier as) your 140 character “limit”.

  71. Mate. I do this for amusement. Not fussed about being gobbled at. So I’ll ignore.sorry and all that you cunt

  72. EU Steve

    PF yep, they also do naff all

    That’s interesting, because on the other thread apparently old Juncker does nothing as well. You never answered Henry’s question, so I’ll ask again, and hopefully “clearly”:

    Why are we paying for all this stuff, which allegedly doesn’t in fact do anything?

    Or perhaps that’s another argument that we are now about to win..;)

  73. PF

    actually I never said Juncker does nothing. He is a useful go between to make EU work more coherent. That’s all.

    But yes the foreign policy guff is a waste of money. The EU isn’t perfect. What is?

  74. Another example of the world of free trade outside of the EU: the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand free trade agreement. Population 620 million. No supranational law making body involved.

    It seems like the rest of the world has figured out how to make this trade thing work without an extra layer of politicians and bureaucrats.

  75. Matt

    Those kinds of deals are far less deep than the EU. British firms have total access to a market of 500m. That’s just not like anywhere on the planet.

    There would be a short term negative hit for the UK after brexit. No question. Long term no one can say for sure but I would be very worried

  76. “Those kinds of deals are far less deep than the EU. British firms have total access to a market of 500m. That’s just not like anywhere on the planet.”

    That may be the case, but the point is that the countries mentioned are not economic wastelands, racked by plagues of boils, locusts, frogs and the slaughter of the first born, all of which we appear to be promised if we have the temerity to leave the EU. They are all perfectly functioning western type social democratic countries, most of which are wealthier per head than the UK. How can they manage this, but the UK (a bigger economy than any individual one of them) can’t?

  77. Jim – No one’s saying Britain would melt down after Brexit.

    Sort term, my guess is that unemployment would be a bit higher, mortgage rates a bit higher, immigration slightly lower, our influence on the world lower…

    Tax income would thus be lower, meaning the money we’d get from not paying EU fees would be offset.

    Long term, I have serious concerns Brexit could cause the EU to collapse. Isn’t it interesting that every single one of our allies in the world want us to remain. The only major world leader who wants us to leave is Putin.

    Think deeply about that.

  78. ” This can’t happen without treaty change and it wont happen….”

    The eurozone countries can and I expect will do all that (eg, common treasury, common finance minister) using a eurozone treaty, without changing the main EU treaty. That’s why Merkel quipped that they might never get round to changing the EU ones: they don’t need to, especially with the UK now unable to block eurozone development (not that it was in a strong position to do that under the existing arrangements).

  79. The Meissen Bison

    The only major world leader who wants us to leave is Putin.

    Nothing there to think deeply about, though thanks for the jumped-up exhortation.

    Putin like you and like me thinks that Brexit would damage the EU.

    He doesn’t like the EU, doesn’t give a tinker’s cuss for the single market and hasn’t got multinational interests at stake.

  80. “No one’s saying Britain would melt down after Brexit.”

    Erm, yes they are. Every Remain statement at the moment is predicting dire outcomes the day after we vote to leave (todays example from the BBC website ‘Brexit would make UK poorer by £4300 per household’, the other day it was ‘The NHS is going to collapse outside the EU’ etc etc). No one from the Remain camp is saying ‘It might be a bit worse here, and a bit worse there, but not a disaster’, they are all predicting catastrophe.

    And how about instead of just predicting doom and gloom you actually answer my question – how come countries such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway and Switzerland can be outside the EU (or any supra-national similar body), but still be (apart from NZ) wealthier per capita than the UK?

    ” I have serious concerns Brexit could cause the EU to collapse. Isn’t it interesting that every single one of our allies in the world want us to remain. The only major world leader who wants us to leave is Putin.”

    The EU collapsing would be the best thing that could happen to the countries of Europe, they’d regain their democracies and their self esteem. And Putin is one of the few European leaders that aren’t out of the Common Purpose/Frankfurt School mould, and as such I’m beginning to warm to him.

  81. EU Steve

    The embassies have been recently installed, they are not some kind of left over legacy.

    Even if ‘allegedly’ they ‘currently’ don’t do anything (!), absolutely no one is going to claim that they are not there for some purpose!

  82. Jim. Osborne’s prediction isn’t meltdown. It’d hurt though.

    Australia and Canada have massive supply of natural resources. So does Norway. Switzerland is services based like the UK. They pay into the EU budget and have freedom of movement from EU to get the access to EU markets they need

    And you’re warming to that murderous thriving autocrat Putin? Blimey. That’s scary

  83. CHF. Again you’re guessing what might happen. I’ll wait till your nightmare vision comes to fruition before passing judgement

  84. ” Osborne’s prediction isn’t meltdown. It’d hurt though.”

    Actually it wouldn’t. You don’t miss what you never had. If UK GDP is 6% lower in 2030 than it ‘could’ have been if we’d stayed in the EU, no-one would ever know, or feel the loss. We’ll still be wealthier in 2030 than today under Osborne’s own figures, so how exactly is that a disaster? After all there are countries in the EU who might well have zero growth in their economies between now and 2030, Italy for one, its hardly grown at all in a decade.

    Vote Brexit and get considerably wealthier, based on the Remain camps own figures. Sounds like a good slogan to me!

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