Don’t believe it but here’s hoping

A clear majority of voters want Britain to quit the European Union, according to a poll for The Times that gives Brexit a seven-point lead.

The YouGov survey puts Leave on 46 per cent, up three points since the end of last week. Remain is on 39 per cent, down three — giving Brexit its largest lead since the start of the campaign, the pollster found. Eleven per cent of people do not know how they will vote and 4 per cent plan to abstain.

46 thoughts on “Don’t believe it but here’s hoping”

  1. So Much For Subtlety

    They will find some Remain ballots stuffed down the back of the sofa or something.

    I would think the polls from a couple of months ago were more reliable. But I have not heard a thing from the Remain people. The only people who seem fired up are the Leavers.

    It may just be me though.

  2. For those of us who lived through the nightmare of the independence referendum it’s all very familiar.

    “The only people who seem fired up are the Leavers.”

    Same for Yes voters. They wanted the referendum, it was their cause, they’d been focussed on it for years so of course they were fired up. Hence all the Yes posters everywhere, street stalls etc.

    The No voters hadn’t wanted the referendum, wanted the status quo and it would appear most just wanted the whole thing over so they could get on with their lives unchanged. Hence the high turnout without as much fuss.

    And when the results came through then the Yessers were shocked: “I never saw a No poster/no one I knew voted No/everyone on Twitter was Yes”

    My view is that the EU referendum is different as there isn’t the same underlying desire to stay in as there was with the UK. There will be more people who just don’t care enough to vote or even just hold their nose and vote Remain.

    Don’t know which way it’s going to go, but I hope to never have to endure another referendum campaign again.

  3. Just got back from Post Office having posted by ballot with the cross marked against the Leave EU box.

  4. The thing is, the polls have shifted.

    A month or so ago, I was convinced that Remain would win. What’s changed in that time? The utterly bonkers “aliens will come down and insert probes if we leave the EU” scaremongering. I think they’ve shot their credibility in the foot.

    Meanwhile, Vote Leave has been very effective. It’s stuck to the knitting: democracy, money. The Remain camp can argue the toss about £350m, and the Out camp can point to it being in the House of Commons library. You might want to argue about money coming back or money spent, but you can’t actually fault “we send £350m per week to Brussels”. And the Remain camp really doesn’t want to argue it, because they really don’t want to declare the adjusted number, which still looks bad.

  5. The Inimitable Steve

    GlenDorran – Yeah. I reckon the EU is considerably less popular with the UK electorate than the United Kingdom was with Scottish voters. There’s no emotional affinity with Herman van Rumpypumpy and the European Commission the way there is with shared British institutions like the armed forces and the monarchy.

    Also, from what I gather, there was a large element of bullying in Scotland which led to a lot of No supporters keeping their heads down. Nobody’s afraid of offending the Leave campaign.

    I’m expecting a narrow victory for Leave.

  6. There will be plenty of Leavers voting Remain due to the uncertain future factor.

    On the other hand, look what happened with the anti-establishment Trump, who is a sort of proxy for Leave.

    Either way, it won’t be over on the 24th, though Osborne’s “reputation” as The Grand Strategist may well be.

  7. which led to a lot of No supporters keeping their heads down

    Quite. Lest we forget, there isn’t a single Tory north of the border, not one single one.

    This isn’t backed-up by election results, but it’s Absolutely True.

  8. What’s changed in that time?

    A variety of immigration stories must be a factor, a subject Remain has handled with almost total incompetence.

    Associating Leave with Racism may lead to people keeping their heads down, but the insults will count for nothing in the polling booth.

  9. Bloke in North Dorset

    According to Guido if Remain are still behind in the polls next week Juncker the Drunker is going to get involved. That should do it.

  10. @BiND – If by ‘do it’ you mean ‘sew it up for Leave’ (as I’m sure you do), then I wholeheartedly concur.

  11. Jack C: “Associating Leave with Racism may lead to people keeping their heads down, but the insults will count for nothing in the polling booth.”

    This.

  12. Lest we forget, there isn’t a single Tory north of the border, not one single one.

    I am the only Tory (ish – not a member, not a fan of the current leadership) in my particular village.

    I think …

  13. Jack C,

    “Either way, it won’t be over on the 24th, though Osborne’s “reputation” as The Grand Strategist may well be.”

    He could still win the next election, but only because of how terrible Corbyn is.

  14. The Inimitable Steve

    SE – not a fan of the current leadership

    Yar. If you’re gonna vote for a lezzer, at least make it a sexy blonde one with big boobs. Whatsherface just makes me sad.

    How come all three of the major parties in the Scottish parliament are run by man-faced growlers anyway? Chernobyl fallout?

  15. Leaving the EU could cause a collapse in the UK economy, with a collapse in house prices, the financial sector and a run on the pound. It could rip the UK economy apart. And who will the right wing blame for the economic problmes the Brexiters cause. Will the euroskeptics blame jews, gays, gypsies, muslims, Scots, Welsh, immigrants, the disabled? That is what they normally blame.
    The EU is vital for our geopolitical security. A weak and divided Europe will be ripe for plunder by non European superpowers. Look at the Middle East for a region of geopolitical insecurity. With proxy wars, civil wars, dictators imposed by other nations.

  16. Not terribly gallant Steve.

    It seems the electorate has tired of edge-free, sexless metro-drones, and we’re now seeing the return of organic humans.

    I suspect Corbyn is an absolute yawn down the pub, but I bet the New Growlers like a pint.

  17. Will the euroskeptics blame jews, gays, gypsies, muslims, Scots, Welsh, immigrants, the disabled? That is what they normally blame

    Nina, you clearly think very highly of yourself, but I suspect you’re not quite as superior as you think you are. Your grammar, for example, is rubbish.

  18. How the proposed EU army is kept so quiet beats me.

    The business end would be the British army, the others will do cooking and logistics.
    It’s the French wet dream to be sending the British army off to fight for them.

    Point is voting to remain isn’t voting to keep what we have, it’s giving them a blank cheque to consume the UK.

  19. The Inimitable Steve

    Jack – Not terribly gallant Steve.

    Hallo! I’m Steve.

    It seems the electorate has tired of edge-free, sexless metro-drones, and we’re now seeing the return of organic humans.

    This is why I hate organic. They look like they were fished out of the wonky veg boxes at Asda. They could be extras in Lord of the Rings, and wouldn’t need any makeup.

    Nina – Will the euroskeptics blame jews, gays, gypsies, muslims, Scots, Welsh, immigrants, the disabled?

    Worth a try. Hail Hydra!

  20. ” A weak and divided Europe will be ripe for plunder by non European superpowers”

    A) Hysterical Bollocks
    B) Europe is in the process of economically and demographically cutting its own balls off. The Boy Scouts Could take Europe in 10 years time, assuming there’s anything worth taking…

  21. Nina Legg is an even more obvious paid troll than (NOT INIMITABLE) Steve was. Her dozy shit has also appeared on Samizdata using the same script.

    Piss off and pick up your wages Ni-Na. You aren’t worth 30 pieces of silver paper never mind the hire of Judas.

  22. Dear Nina:

    What are EU plans for the future of Greece?
    How about for the pending Italian debt crisis?
    How is that youth employment going in Spain?
    Any plans to reboot the French economy?
    How many of your neighbours are willingly to pay Greek pensions?
    Why are people queing in Calais to get out of EU?
    What do you think of Merkel’s unilateral invitation to refugees?

    At this rate, there will be nothing left for non-European powers to plunder.

  23. Meanwhile, in today’s Guardian, Polly has had something of a revelation:

    Here were the two irreconcilable faces of Labour, eager young London graduates on the phone making scant headway with older traditional voters of Nottingham, impervious to love letters from Der Spiegel or heartfelt warnings that Labour people, Labour areas, would pay the price for Brexit self-destruction.

  24. Yeah that Brexit fall out might just devastate the North.

    They won’t be able to afford any new mosques.

    Nice to hear young snot leftist scum are being told to piss off–even the “My Dad voted Labour” folks are increasingly wise to CM shite.

  25. Jack C. You criticize me for my grammar, but have you heard the saying never begin a sentence with a conjunction!’.So you are hoist by your own petard, and not for the first time. You were obviously not well educated. I can assure you I have university education. You have none.
    I am confident enough to write freely, you seem to have an inferiority complex and i wonder why will there be any more ladies to laugh at your problem?

    Mr Ecks, wow a real man picks on women don’t they. Maybe you are making up for all that embarrassing rejection from women over the years. Well you;re humiliation will last for eternity.

  26. If anyone is still fence-sitting on the issue, the number one economics blogger in the UK has published a handy mind map online, also available as a download, which sets out random idiocy in favour of the EU.

    Some of us are holding out for the inevitable Venn Diagram on the matter to be published by the same site before committing to in or out of the EU.

  27. Jack C, Johnnydub, Jim, only creeps picks on women.

    I wasn’t picking on women.

    You, on the other hand, have written-off half the population as racists and bigots because they don’t agree with you, and without having met them.

    Try not to be so schreechingly intolerant.

  28. Nina Legg-Bagg–Oh no –ALL ETERNITY!!!

    Who knew that Almighty had given the keys of Death and Hell to a stupid SJW troll who can’t even think of a better name than “Nina Leg”.

    You should have called yourself “Needa Leg” and then you could pretend to be disabled as well as pretending to be female. Or do the EU hire only women trolls and pay them less? That wouldn’t surprise anybody by now.

    A real man picks on women.???

    WTF–even skanks like Valenti are too embarrassed to try that line of crap–openly at least. “We are the big tough girlies who need you male scum like…” –you know the rest. And then “Real men shouldn’t pick on women–you aren’t much of a man if you pick on a girl” . Playground stuff literally.

  29. Bloke wot didn't go to uni

    Jack C. You criticize me for my grammar, but have you heard the saying never begin a sentence with a conjunction!’

    Like all such *rules* it’s bollocks. And you know it.

  30. BraveFart

    Even with my curiosity for the daily idiocy on TRUK I couldn’t face reading that….

  31. Nina has basically made the point I made earlier.

    I’m Brexit for one narrow reason, which is that the EU has a pre-set direction. That’s pretty much it.

    Along comes Nina with accusations of racism, bigotry, and any other insults she can think of. (Not, in this unique case, including “neoliberalism”, as the EU has already been branded as that, rather awkwardly for left-leaning Remainers).

    Am I likely to be persuaded?

  32. Bloke in North Dorset

    “Chris Miller
    @BiND – If by ‘do it’ you mean ‘sew it up for Leave’ (as I’m sure you do), then I wholeheartedly concur.”

    Yes, I’ve always been an EU skeptic but that’s easy when there’s no real decision to be made. I though I would at leat try to listen to the arguments and I vacillated for a while, there are some good arguments for staying, but in the end I got fed up with project fear. The thought of being in the same camp as those who put out that shit turned my stomach.

    And then the likes of Nina come along and confirm my decision.

  33. “only creeps picks on women”

    Well, done, you’ve just undone 50 years of equality work by women there – ‘Don’t pick on me I’m just a poor little woman, unable to defend myself, my ideas and my arguments!’.

  34. Oh, and wonderful ad homs, do they teach this stuff in SJW troll school, or does it come naturally to you?

    I have to think that todays SJWs would even baulk at the ‘lets call all men we disagree with sad losers who can’t get laid’ tactic. Its so 2001.

  35. SE,

    I could post a ton of citations but none would be from, what I consider to be, a reputable source. Remember that we live in a world in which ‘evil fat’ has been replaced with a ton of sugar on the advice of ‘experts’.

    Since no one really knows what will happen I am free to make a prediction. The vote will be overwhelmingly be for leave. The British Empire will rise again. British mariners will once again surpass those of other countries, this time in space, and the world will end up richer for it.

    All I have to do is post this a few other times and it can become a citation.

  36. So Much For Subtlety

    Nina Leg – “Leaving the EU could cause a collapse in the UK economy, with a collapse in house prices, the financial sector and a run on the pound. It could rip the UK economy apart.”

    You say that like it is a bad thing.

    “And who will the right wing blame for the economic problmes the Brexiters cause. Will the euroskeptics blame jews, gays, gypsies, muslims, Scots, Welsh, immigrants, the disabled? That is what they normally blame.”

    All of the above! Those bloody Welsh are to blame for everything.

    “The EU is vital for our geopolitical security. A weak and divided Europe will be ripe for plunder by non European superpowers.”

    We can hope.

    “Look at the Middle East for a region of geopolitical insecurity. With proxy wars, civil wars, dictators imposed by other nations.”

    Sounds like what the EU has done to Southern Europe – who elected the government of Italy? Certainly there are probably fewer Muslims in Algeria than in France.

    I like your political programme generally. I say, Vote Nina Leg for Parliament! Ever thought of standing for UKIP?

  37. The Meissen Bison

    I can’t help noticing a certain amount of vitriol being directed at the no doubt gorgeous and fragrant Nina Leg possibly because she is a woman and consequently deserves protection and extra time to think things through.

    I say hands off Nina and her Leg as well.

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