I don’t think I believe this but here’s hoping

The “Leave” camp was 10 points ahead of “Remain” with less than two weeks to go before Britain’s referendum on whether to stay in the European Union, according to a poll by ORB for The Independent newspaper published on Friday.

36 thoughts on “I don’t think I believe this but here’s hoping”

  1. When you have the Remain campaigners working so assiduously for a Brexit result,is this surprising? Camoron alone is the gift that just keeps on giving.

  2. I’d like to think that I know a wide variety of people and currently of those people I feel Brexiters are at about 70% to 80% plus they are far more proactive and likely to vote

  3. Even if Leave win, we won’t leave.

    I’ve failed to find an example in EU history where the will of the people counted for more than a tinkers cuss.

  4. The Inimitable Steve

    I have a feeling the Leaves will have it with a narrow victory.

    Don’t think TPTB have it in them to pull off a postal vote fraud as brazen as the one in Austria.

    Of course, the majority voting Leave doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll leave. The whole rotten fabric of the modern British State – excluding only our current Sovereign, long may she live – is determined to stay in.

    Getting out of the EU is also a necessary, but not sufficient, step towards getting our country back. When I’m Lord Protector, I’ll put Mr Ecks in charge of De-Labourising civic society.

  5. Inimitable steve – yes they can, after all its the same fucking scum in brussels who arrange these things.

    There’s no WAY a leave vote will be allowed.

  6. I fear our politicos are childish enough the ‘negotiate’ a deal after leaving which looks just like the shit end of the stick we have now out of spite, not realising that we want out because we always get shitty deals out of the EU.

    Anyone who thinks we can negotiate a good deal in the EU should bear in mind that it’s playing France’s favorite game on their territory, and from the French pov there’s bonus points for sticking it to the English.

  7. It may be right- if it is accounting for those likely to vote. My distinct impression is that those wanting to leave are more determined than those wanting to stay- remain will have a huge get out the vote problem.
    Unless remain win by a large margin however it won’t be the end of the matter.
    In the event of a narrow remain win those wanting out will move towards “out” parties at the next General, and unless the EU turns itself into a success story in the next few years may well find themselves on the winning side.
    In the event of an out vote we can be assured of a chance to change our minds in a second referendum, probably after some further concessions (which might or might not be more meaningful than the last lot)

  8. I already voted Leave by postal vote. It was kind of daunting and scary but I did it as I want the UK to get back its self-determination. I think a lot of people will find it similarly scary and may err on the side of so-called caution. One argument not being made is that by being outside the Euro, our status will become increasingly marginal. We are really just pre-empting this.

  9. I’m increasingly of the opinion that regardless of whether Leave win the vote, the people in charge (who are predominantly pro Remain) will not allow it to happen. As others have said there are a million ways they can subtly sabotage the Brexit process – all they would have to do would be to go behind the scenes and tell the rest of Europe to offer us a shitty deal, safe in the knowledge there’s a pro-Remain camp in the UK government/Parliament who will agitate against the Brexit case from within. So the EU would know the UK was a divided camp, and could take all manner of hard line stances that they would never dare to if they knew the UK had a united front.

    And it would all be utterly deniable, no-one could ever prove anything, just that the EU cut up rough in the negotiations. The Remain camp are prepared to tell outright lies in the actual campaign, they won’t stop working behind the scenes for Remain just because they lost the vote.

    Lamp posts are too good from them, I’m thinking the old punishment for traitors, hanging drawing and quartering would be better.

  10. If the a Scottish Referendum is any guide, then the early sampling of postal votes will be giving a good indication of how the final result will go.

    That might explain the venom of the Remain campaign in the last few days.

  11. It’s not going to happen. But we will leave in the relatively near future, like 20 years. The growth in global trade means we have less and less to gain from being hooked into these countries.

  12. As I am currently in Italy I have applied for a postal vote, if it doesn’t arrive in time I will come back to vote— LEAVE.

    I remember the previous referendum, my parents among others reasoned that if both far left and right were against it then —suppressing doubt— the common market must be ok.
    This time I think: if Blair.T and Major.J are saying remain then the right answer must be leave.

  13. The other posters are correct. Regardless of the result we will not be allowed to Leave. Elites do not surrender unless a boot is on their throat. Even then they will wheedle, or morph into something else (see Communists becoming Environmentalists after the fall of the Soviet Union).

    I can’t predict the result but the anecdata from my Facebook contacts (all Left-wing pubishing, media, Public sector, NGO, or education types) is hysterical in the last two weeks.

    They are freaking out.

    The gloves are off, and the last vestiges of the pretence of politeness has gone. Anyone, regardless of age, sex, political affiliation, income, or knowledge is (apparently) a knuckle-dragging Neanderthal, small-minded, xenophobic, racist, bigotted Little-Englander.

    I think they are getting really scared that, despite owning the money and the media, they might just lose.

  14. Bloke in North Dorset

    I’ll bet the French are now hoping we vote Leave s that they can block our football hooligans.

  15. “They [the Left] are freaking out.”

    Its because they aren’t used to losing. Yes I know they lose elections, but in the areas that really matters they’ve been winning for the last 40 years. The Left control much of the media, the public sphere, the corporate sphere, the charity sphere, the State sphere. Their grasp there is iron hard. Everywhere one looks policy has moved leftwards – immigration, education, welfare, foreign policy, social policy, workers rights, taxation even. The Left make a big thing about Thatcher, because she was the last person to actually fight and beat them, and move policy away from them – since then the Right have had no stomach for the fight, and the soft left obviously wanted that sort of direction anyway.

    Thus the possibility that the electorate might vote in a way that would directly reverse one major plank of Leftist ideology (‘Europe = Good, and by implication ‘Unlimited immigration = Good’) has them absolutely aghast. The very idea that the great unwashed should even have a say on such matters is beyond comprehension to them – see RM’s diatribe the other day about why the referendum was even being held.

    I can quite easily see that Leftist individuals in the Civil Service will actively connive against Brexit and refuse to work for a pro-Brexit government. They would convince themselves they were rebels to the cause or some such nonsense.

  16. When the most substantive argument from “Remain” seems to be “if we leave, the EU will be nasty to us to punish us”, that seems to be a bit argumentam ad battered-wife….

  17. One thing I’ve noticed recently is that while I’ve seen a few leave posters around my way, I haven’t seen any remain ones. Likewise leave have been out canvassing in the two centre most weekends but not seen one remain event.

    Finally, a prediction on the governments response to the result (assuming turnout around 60%);

    Remain win by 50%+1 ‘the people have spoken and that the end of the matter’

    Leave win by 50%+1 ‘ the turnout was too low to be considered valid, we can’t make such a big change when only 30% of the population wanted it’

  18. Don’t think TPTB have it in them to pull off a postal vote fraud as brazen as the one in Austria.

    Being a typical Yank I was clueless to possible fraud even existing. The first couple articles I found didn’t have anything specific. What am I missing?

    As I am currently in Italy I have applied for a postal vote, if it doesn’t arrive in time I will come back to vote— LEAVE.

    How delightfully convoluted.

  19. And remember that the EU is seriously considering barring MEP’s who don’t believe in “the project”…….

  20. “They are scare mongering to try and get their vote out.”

    Yep. Bit early though, two weeks to go. I would expect this to be planted 3/4 days before.

  21. ty Pcar.

    It would seem that US style voter ID laws wouldn’t prevent the fraud in this case either.

  22. Touring the provinces today I saw loads of Leave posters, but not a single Remain. It’s really coming down who has the most numbers, the urban Uni elites, or the suburban/rural ordinary patriots (both Labour and Conservative).

    It was probably a mistake for Cameron to hold it during the Euros, especially if England do well.

    (But obviously the establishment elites won’t just just roll over for a Leave vote. You don’t get to those positions these days by just naively doing the right thing.)

  23. If “Leave” win, then the Politicians have to start the process to ;eave.

    They won’t want to, but any Conservative who votes against leaving will be looking for a new job. The Tories collectively will either go all over to Leave, or half their voters will go UKIP in protest. They’ll be destroyed electorally.

    Any Labour politician in a “Leave” area will see that there are votes in it, and it’s not like Corbyn is heartily for Remain.

    Politicians can deny the public, but only if they are united in doing so. Remain isn’t a topic they are united on.

  24. [email protected]:08

    “Its because they aren’t used to losing. Yes I know they lose elections, but in the areas that really matters they’ve been winning for the last 40 years.”

    This is exactly right. If you’d been a moderate, patriotic person in 1976 holding views that were considered middle of the road who’d gone into a coma and woken up again in 2016, you’d be considered a neo-nazi.

  25. Bloke in Austria for a Bit

    I’m a bit late to this thread, thanks to the football but just a quick cmment on Inim Steves and Liberal Yank’s take on the Austrian election.

    The FPÖ have called foul on the postal votes because of procedural mistakes made in the opening and counting of the envelopes ( even in communes where Hofer won ) which they reckon invalidates the whole process. Pres Fischer stands down on 8 July, the constitutional court hasn’t a hope of reaching a decision before then and so a committee from the upper house (Nationalrat) will act as caretaker.

    The ORF ( Austrian broadcaster ) predicted exactly what the result of the postal vote would be on election night (60-40).

    Also, Peru’s election looks like a bit of a rounding error too.

  26. Labour made the mistake of thinking the Scottish Referendum was a “one-off” with no impact on other elections. They no longer exist in Scotland.

    If the Conservative Party ignore a ‘Leave’ vote the consequences for them will be catastrophic. Cameron might not only be the PM who inadvertently took Britain out of the EU but who also destroyed his own party.

  27. Harry Haddock's ghost

    I can’t see if happening. Even if the vote is to leave, which I would love to see but think project fear will just about see a remain vote, the track record of those who want to see the continued dominance of the EU is to do some sham negotiation, off a new deal based on this, then vote again.

  28. “If “Leave” win, then the Politicians have to start the process to ;eave.”

    Yes, but that doesn’t mean they will prosecute that campaign with the necessary vigour or strategy to make it work. It will be very easy to make it look like they are working towards Brexit when they really aren’t. Brexit won’t be just like flicking a switch, a lot of hard yards will be necessary, and if the people responsible don’t give a toss if it works (in fact don’t want it to work) then it will never happen.

  29. Bloke in Austria for a Bit

    Also, Peru’s election looks like a bit of a rounding error too.

    The winner’s margin is well within the rounding error range – no credible accusations of fraud though.

    (Hope you enjoyed your bit).

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