Britain’s authority within EU will rise after “In” vote: PM Cameron
Britain’s influence in the European Union will be stronger if it votes to remain in the bloc in a June 23 referendum, Prime Minister David Cameron said on Sunday with the latest polls showing Britons almost evenly split over whether to stay or go.

That’s not how negotiations go is it?

“I’m leaving unless you….”

And then you don’t leave and they then, well, do they or don’t they? You’ve bottled it so they know they’ve got you over a barrel of course.

30 thoughts on “Like Fuck”

  1. So Much For Subtlety

    Given the EU’s treatment of Cameron in his efforts to re-negotiate a better deal, well, Britain’s influence could hardly be lower could it?

    What is worse than no influence at all? They saw a callow, experienced, shallow man with no beliefs or backbone and told him to take his toys and go home.

  2. I think it’s a bit more nuanced than this.

    If the result is heavily for Remain (anything 60% or over) then Tim is right, we’d have no leverage. But if the result is something like 52%/48% then that is close enough that the rest of the EU will be bricking it that a Eurosceptic PM coming to power in the UK (which is the most likely outcome next time) perhaps on a promise to hold a second referendum without the govt throwing its weight behind remain this time could cause Brexit within a few years. Then they might feel compelled to make concessions in an attempt to prevent this.

    But Cameron isn’t campaigning for a narrow victory, he wants a big one so in that respect the OP is spot on.

  3. @Mark Thompson

    No need for a second referendum. If (as I expect) the ballot is rigged and Remain are declared to have a slender majority, it’s possible that both main parties will disintegrate and that two new parties — one pro EU and the other anti — will emerge. The anti party will have a manifesto commitment to pull out of the EU, and if they win the next GE that’s that.

    It’s high time the Labour Party, in particular, was abolished or at least renamed, as it no longer represents labour; and the Conservatives long ago abandoned the championship of capital in favour of centrist policies with a hefty sprinkling of cronyism.

    Whether the present structure of UKIP has any future in this hypothetical anti-EU party will be interesting.

  4. The Meissen Bison

    @Mark Thompson

    In a logical world your analysis would make perfect sense but I don’t think the EU works and thinks like that at all.

    Two things get in the way of your sensible prognosis in the case of a narrow victory: first the absolute pre-emminence of the “Project” of ever closer union and second, the tendency in the case of crisis to postpone taking necessary action.

    There are various new EU laws waiting in the wings until after the referendum – I expect them to emerge into the light of day this summer whatever the outcome of the referendum.

  5. @Thomas

    “The anti party will have a manifesto commitment to pull out of the EU, and if they win the next GE that’s that.”

    And that would probably be better than going through this sort of farce again. We are after all supposed to have a representary system, not a plebiscite based one.

    @TMB

    Again though, if the result is close I really think they will peddle slowly on whatever they have cued up waiting. Because however ideological they may be about “The Project” political reality will force them to accept that one of the biggest members has almost voted to come out.

    And if they ignore that reality (as you and plenty of others) think they would then they’ll only have themselves to blame when we inevitably pull out a few years down the line. In fact, despite the fact that I’m voting Remain this time, if they did behave like that I’d probably vote out in any future referendum as well as it would confirm the fears that I have kept in check this time around.

  6. “Britain’s authority within EU will rise…”

    What authority? Seriously, can anyone say with a straight face that France and Germany have ever taken any notice of what the UK wants.

  7. I’d say the UK rebate will be gone in 6 months if we remain in the EU. After all there wouldn’t be a referendum for a another generation apparently.

  8. Bloke in North Dorset

    As I see it they won’t do away with ever closer union but know that a major change towards a US of E will need a new treaty and the just isn’t going to happen. Instead they will try to boil the frog through new laws and regulations that can be implemented through secondary legislation and ministerial directive.

    Whatever happens the tectonic plates of British politics are in for a major realignment and the aftershocks will last for years.

  9. The Inimitable Steve

    If we’re stupid enough to vote Remain we’ll be punished. That is how the EU treats uppity provinces, pour encourager les autres.

    One of the first things they’ll do is insist we take our “fair share” of the millions of filthy kebab-scented rapists Angela Merkel invited into Europe.

    We’ve only taken a couple of thousand so far, and they’re already gang-raping little English girls.

    A vote for Remain is a vote for rape.

  10. The result Cameron wants is a narrow victory for Remain, so that he can threaten to hold another referendum any time the rest of the EC won’t give him what he wants. But you can’t campaign for a narrow victory – no one can cast a vote for 52% Remain.

    The result Johnson wants is a narrow victory for Leave, so that he can negotiate a better deal for the UK to stay in, hold another referendum, and become Prime Minister on the back of it.

    The result UKIP wants? Who knows. They ought to be embarrassed when the Leave vote is much higher than the 12.7% the party attracted at the last general election.

  11. @SJW

    “The result Johnson wants is a narrow victory for Leave, so that he can negotiate a better deal for the UK to stay in, hold another referendum, and become Prime Minister on the back of it.”

    I don’t think this is right. I think the result Johnson wants is a narrow Remain. That way he is still very likely to become PM quickly off the back of the fury of the Tory grassroots who consider that Cameron has betrayed them by campaigning so hard for Remain, and Johnson then won’t have to spend the entirety of his premiership dealing with the minutae of renegotiating a relationship with the EU from outside. As we know he’s not a details man and would dread the prospect of his time in No 10 being dominated by something like this.

  12. SJW: Those who peddle socialism do so without embarrassment about the millions butchered by that death cult.

    Why should anyone, anywhere feel embarrassed about anything in the face of that.

  13. If we’re stupid enough to vote Remain we’ll be punished. That is how the EU treats uppity provinces, pour encourager les autres.

    But…but…they are our friends?! That would imply that our friends were in fact some sort of manipulative psychopaths.

  14. Witchsmeller Pursuivant

    @SJW – UKIP’s vote share in the last GE was low precisely because of Cameron’s promise of a referendum. Many right-leaning UKIP voters would have correctly surmised that tactical voting for the Tories in this case was in their interests. Left-leaning UKIP voters probably couldn’t stomach that, which is why the UKIP surge hit the Labour vote disproportionately.

    Cameron’s promise probably won the Tories the last GE, it remains to be seen whether they’ll pay for that with exit from the EU, the combustion of their party, and the dissolution of the Union.

  15. It will be stronger if we remain in. Even a 0.1% influence is more than we get when we leave an have 0% influence.

    Not that it is an argument for remain except in times of desperation when any straw is being used to keep Cameron going.

  16. “It’s high time the Labour Party, in particular, was abolished or at least renamed, as it no longer represents labour”

    Yes. Any proposals for the new name? I suggest The Sociology Party.

  17. The greatest influence on the EU that the UK could have is to leave and succeed on the outside, proving to other member states that it’s possible.

  18. Basically, who would want to be in a union with a bunch of krauts, boche, hun, fritzes, frogs, wops, eyeties, gyppos, greasy dagos, micks and paddies?

  19. I’d happily be in a union with that bunch of krauts, boche, hun, fritzes, frogs, wops, eyeties, gyppos, greasy dagos, micks and paddies.
    Just as long as it’s not the European Union, with it’s bent ideology that farm owners are lovely and all are compelled to be at least 75% equal and if not then we’ll give out money till you are.

  20. @SJW – UKIP’s vote share in the last GE was low precisely because of Cameron’s promise of a referendum. Many right-leaning UKIP voters would have correctly surmised that tactical voting for the Tories in this case was in their interests. Left-leaning UKIP voters probably couldn’t stomach that, which is why the UKIP surge hit the Labour vote disproportionately.

    And/or because being in or out of the EU has never been the most important issue at general election time.

  21. And/or because being in or out of the EU has never been the most important issue at general election time.

    Yes, that’s the main reason. Since the electorate had the chance to express a view at the general election, and showed it wasn’t that bothered, it’s wrong to hold a referendum on the question.

  22. So Much For Subtlety

    Social Justice Warrior – “Yes, that’s the main reason. Since the electorate had the chance to express a view at the general election, and showed it wasn’t that bothered, it’s wrong to hold a referendum on the question.”

    I am curious how you know what the intention of 60 million British people was. Collective mind reading?

    What is interesting is that this is the second referendum in recent times. We had one on Scottish independence too. What was interesting about that is that the Scots chose not to be independent but they returned the Scottish National Party to Westminster in huge numbers. That is, the Scots were canny voters. There is no reason to think that the rest of Britain is incapable of tactical voting as well. So it is impossible to determine what the voters want beyond the fact that they voted for this or for that proposition on the ballot paper.

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