The economic effects of Brexit

From the comments:

Meanwhile, all the value added by the workers at Nissan in Sunderland has magically become 12% cheaper. But no doubt Nissan will move it to Belarus just to teach us a damn good lesson.

3 thoughts on “The economic effects of Brexit”

  1. The Brexiteers aren’t even in power yet, so it’s a bit rich of the Guardian to complain about the absence of a legislative programme.

    However, here’s something they can do.

    Sponsor advertisements in the farming press everywhere, from Argentina to Zambia, inviting (private!) delegations to discuss tariff free food sales to the UK, once article 50 is detonated.

    The promise of lower food prices would be popular (and who knows, popular in the EU as well) and the private nature of the trade deals would mean that exporters would have a good incentive to prevent their own governments from starting any protectionist funny business once we have to make bilateral deals on other stuff later.

  2. I usually follow Tim about online, nodding at his sober economic analysis. But this ‘Brexit won’t cost a thing’ stuff seems to be more visceral than rational. Certainly a whiff of confirmation bias (albeit we all do that).

    Everywhere else on the internet I would expect at least someone respectable to say ‘look, there will be pain, but there will be long term gains, and they are going to be this, this and this’ – but they don’t seem to be coming, from anyone, anywhere (including Tim). Indeed, half the arguments (from normally economically competent people) down here are about beady eyed Polish people – the economic arguments seem secondary.

  3. IANAE but it seems to me the economic arguments are entirely secondary. +/-0.3% here and there are lost in the nose of real world events – China’s next 5 year plan and who wins the US presidency will have far more impact on the UK economy than Brexit.

    The thing is that by leaving we can adjust our own response to sit the needs of the UK, rather than the needs of the eurozone.

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