Very well then, aloneJune 23, 2016 Tim WorstallEuropean Union125 CommentsWhich way I think you should vote, which way I have voted, I think is obvious. But do go and vote for the Lord’s sake. previousFascinating stuffnextBrexit questions in the Telegraph we can answer 125 thoughts on “Very well then, alone” JuliaM June 23, 2016 at 7:01 am Well said. And remember, vote the way you’d intended to vote last Wednesday morning. It’d be a very dangerous precedent for our democracy to allow a murder to sway your vote either way. Steve. June 23, 2016 at 7:12 am I would understand it if leave voters feel let down. The idea of turning the UK into a free trading, open, internationalist hub is a good one, and those ideas need working towards. This campaign was a chance to push that case forward, but what did we get? Leave realised they were losing on the economy so put on Farage’s jackboots. This has been a miserable month and brought out the worst in many people, including me. Machiavelli June 23, 2016 at 7:17 am Sad to say I voted remain when I was 18 and then the ‘harmonizing’ started and I knew I had been sold a pup. I’ve been one of those swivel eye loons about leaving for 30 years now. Its been a long time to wait to put a personal mistake to rights. Matthew L June 23, 2016 at 7:22 am People have swallowed too many lies about free trade and free markets unfortunately. They’re ideas that aren’t nearly as popular as they ought to be. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 7:22 am The worst in you Stevie? After the pack of lies, threats and sanctimonious maudlin bullshit the remain gang have spewed out. Go cash your paycheck you little creep. I already voted to smash the EU . I prey that many millions of my fellow countrymen and women see the danger and vote to do the same. Steve. June 23, 2016 at 7:26 am Name me one lie that Remain has told. And a clear one, not just an interpretation of facts As for leave: Turkey is not set to join the EU An EU army will not happen without UK say so £350m is wrong Many leavers (the decent ones) want immigration to increase Steve. June 23, 2016 at 7:39 am And before the conspiracy theories start, support for leave peaked before the Cox murder: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cllad03WMAAabbp.jpg Henry Crun June 23, 2016 at 7:44 am Ersatz Steve. Everyone else has been too polite on here to say it, so I will. FUCK OFF!! Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 7:46 am Remain Lies: Apart from the non-existent danger of economic collapse, world war 3 being on, the end of workers rights, our trade with everybody down the bog, how lovely and democratic the EU is(–Drunker is over in France bullying their fuckwit President right now). Christ you can’t stop lying even now you paid hack. Negotiations with Turkey open 30th June. No EU army without our consent–says the pork abuser?. A re-run of ’75–“No EU law vaild in UK without Parliaments consent”–except of course for all those areas where that didn’t apply–which areas have grown massively since 75. The MP scum hardly even know what edicts the ESpew is handing out nowadays. 350 million–wouldn’t care if it was 35p. The figure is open to argument but they still cost us millions and try to bribe and propagandise us with our own money. Not to mention the much greater sums their bullshit regulation costs us. Stevie you are dross who couldn’t tell the truth if hell had you. Here’s hoping your cheque bounces. Steve. June 23, 2016 at 7:50 am Negotiations with Turkey started about 30 years ago Yep, “stop WW3” was on the Remain battle bus And come on, we all know EU social policy is empty – it enabled the single market to be sold to lefties Not sure economic collapse was ever promised either. Depends how you define a recession that would take 15 years to regain the previous trend Steve. June 23, 2016 at 7:51 am Henry – I come on here trying to patronise you and this is the thanks I get. Bah Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 7:55 am Snivelling Stevie: Your bullshit polls have only ever been a tool of propaganda–so go shove them up Merkel. As for conspiracy–as far as I know there is no way to precisely time a nutter to go off on cue. That is the only reason that leads me to doubt that the Cox killing might be a false flag operation. That the scum of the EU (and the middle/upper class CM proggie dross of the British Establishment who are behind Remain) are capable of arranging the murder of one of their own to get their scummy way I have no doubt whatsoever. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 7:58 am That’s right Steve–follow up your first lot of lies with even more brazen ones. The only thing you need to be sure of is that you get to the bank before your paymasters empty/close their account. You dread the ballot result far less than hearing the words “Insufficient funds in that account”. bilbaoboy June 23, 2016 at 8:19 am Have you read the 5 prezzies report? john malpas June 23, 2016 at 8:39 am It is interesting that so many think the poll will be honest. Especially when it involves at the highest level- political connivers first class. Henry Marsh June 23, 2016 at 8:42 am Worst lies told by both sides were that it was a referendum on leaving the Single Market ( and many of the other ventures of both non-EU and EU countries ). My MEP said that the Norway model was wrong fro the UK because they have to ‘obey’ and ‘have no say’ – both untrue. CJ Nerd June 23, 2016 at 8:57 am On Turkey and other candidates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4Cyzsbe2EE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa2sBeov5u4 “I will remain your strongest advocate for EUUmembership and for greater influence at the top table of European diplomacy.” (Over 20m vide0, but the quote is 30sec in) http://order-order.com/2016/06/22/turkey-flabbergasted-cameron-hes-biggest-supporter/ PeteB June 23, 2016 at 9:35 am Can anybody critique this ? https://www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1293361974024537/ The Meissen Bison June 23, 2016 at 9:45 am Stronger, Safer, Better Off Don’t you think that that looks like a particularly honest strap-line for a brand of condoms? The Meissen Bison June 23, 2016 at 9:46 am oops, my tag slipped off. Theophrastus June 23, 2016 at 10:00 am “That the scum of the EU (and the middle/upper class CM proggie dross of the British Establishment who are behind Remain) are capable of arranging the murder of one of their own to get their scummy way I have no doubt whatsoever.” Face/palm Ted S. June 23, 2016 at 10:06 am I presume there’s a law against telling everybody that you voted [gets water-cannoned before saying what everybody already knows, which is how Worstall voted]? Bloke in North Dorset June 23, 2016 at 10:09 am I admire the certainty expressed here. I’ve tried to be objective and spent a lot of time listening to the arguments, not those of the campaigns, a pox on both their houses, but people who have given it a lot of thought and who’s opinions I respect, on both sides of the argument. Despite that my heart says out but my head says in. There’s no doubt that a vote to leave will result in economic turmoil for at least a couple of years, and it my be longer if, as expected, the EU is spiteful in negotiations and cuts off its nose to spite its face. But do I want to be a member of such a club? Whilst in we are in a unique position with our historical and cultural links to the Commonwealth and USA and even to Asia. But those benefis are being weakened as political union reduces our position in the EU. I know the EU has a democratic deficit and I don’t want to be micro managed by a Brussels based bureaucracy, but I can’t seen any escape from being micro managed by a bureaucracy given the weakness of our own political class. But most of all I have been dismayed by the out’s focus on immigration. It has been nasty and there was no need for it. Yes, immigration is an issue but it could and should have been handled better. The vision of those people leading us in the future, as opposed to the likes of Dan Hannan, John Redwood and the like gives me nightmares. Finally, this is a Jeff Besos Type 1 decision (https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2016/04/23/brexit-is-a-one-way-door/) and there is no going back. Just under 12 hours to finally make up my mind and stop torturing myself. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 10:12 am Theo–never mind facepalm–you’re saying that they aren’t? Remember I didn’t say they did because they can’t program a mental kill. But you are so sure that they wouldn’t if it was possible? On what basis–they are all such decent chaps? Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 10:18 am BNiD–Words fail. If you can’t see what this gang have already done to fuck us up and what they will do–with it seems your help–to finish us off in future then there is little hope for you or the rest of us. A decision made out of weakness and despair. You don’t support the scum of the EU. So don’t for their tyranny. In 1940 it looked like Adolf was on the up and our goose was cooked. Yet we are fucking still here. Get some guts and vote for a future of hope. Sure it will only be the end of the beginning. But it will be a kick in the balls to the proggie scum they will never recover from. And piss on Jeff Bezos. Henry Crun June 23, 2016 at 10:29 am Pete B: https://youtu.be/Mk6Ymy758l4 Bloke in North Dorset June 23, 2016 at 10:37 am A comment from my son, which amused me: “Prediction; overall 52% remain. England to vote to leave but Scotland Wales and NI to vote remain by enough to tip the balance in what will come to be known as the West Lothian headfuck.” PeteC June 23, 2016 at 10:41 am At the very least, leaving will take away the excuse politicans have that “it’s the EU’s fault”. Maybe, just maybe, people will be more critical of those who they elect. PF June 23, 2016 at 10:45 am BiND Finally, this is a Jeff Besos Type 1 decision Nothing problem with the concept (1 vs 2), but I was more persuaded by one or two of the comments below it than by the article? Henry Crun Jacob Rees Mogg – Excellent. PeteB Would you choose to spend many years of your life studying something in such detail, which you weren’t in fact already hugely interested in or quite committed to? I certainly wouldn’t. Apologies, but on that basis I gave up after about a minute – I’ve simply got better things to do? Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 10:45 am BiND: You have a son and maybe–if not now someday–grandkids–and you are lining them up for the tender mercies of the EU? That EU army –that will never exist of course cos Mr Pig-Fuck gives us his word–could be a conscript army. What better way to go for brainwashing. Induct all the youth and have 2-3 years to brainwash them in the love of the EU. Is that what you want for the future of your line? Then don’t throw the future away today. PeteC June 23, 2016 at 10:47 am PeteB: Very interesting, thanks! The guy is a Jean Monnet professor. This means he is directly funded by the EU to give out EU propaganda to university students. Nice gig if you can get it. Now, I wonder if the JM funding continues if the profs turn critical of the EU… BraveFart June 23, 2016 at 10:49 am I see Murphy (the No 1 economics blogger in the observable universe) thinks that his following is so vast that he should observe purdah on the referendum vote today, in case, single handed, he swings the undecided. Is there, we ask, a more swollen-chested preener in Ely, or Greater Cambridgeshire? Lawrence June 23, 2016 at 11:22 am http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/britain-in-historic-vote-that-only-a-handful-of-twats-wanted-in-the-first-place-20160623109722 PF June 23, 2016 at 11:27 am Lawrence, That’s a nice parody of lefty thinking! Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 11:33 am Been to vote Larry? But then you can’t so it is none of your fucking business is it. Bloke in Malta June 23, 2016 at 1:15 pm I’d never voted in the UK – so turns out I can’t register to vote from abroad without having previously been on the electoral register. It would have been a ‘stay’ mind – because I’ve got it rather cushty at the moment, and I really quite like foreign people, and I’m an immigrant myself, and the EU is slowly dragging Malta towards proper western standards of governance. Lawrence June 23, 2016 at 1:38 pm Ecks Yep, I can vote and I have by proxy. Have you? Or has your hatred of everything forced you to cringe under the table rather than making any human contact? Try again, little man. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 1:44 pm “EU is slowly dragging Malta towards proper western standards of governance.” What kind of corrupt super-shithole would Malta have to be for that to be true. Being straightened out by a gang government who are amongst the most bent on Earth? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CxqYWi5vzc Glad you can’t vote–“I’m Alright Jack” and sheer delusion are not good places to vote from. DocBud June 23, 2016 at 1:46 pm Malta can get all the wondrous benefits of EU membership without the UK being a member. I like foreigners in the main, especially the non-hacking, non-shooting, non-explody ones, I’m also an immigrant and the EU is dragging the UK into a mire of despotic corruption and inefficiency. So I voted to leave. Richard June 23, 2016 at 1:53 pm Bloke in North Dorset said: “But most of all I have been dismayed by the out’s focus on immigration. … The vision of those people leading us in the future, as opposed to the likes of Dan Hannan, John Redwood and the like gives me nightmares.” But that’s the great thing about a referendum; it’s a single-issue vote, it doesn’t put the successful side into government. It might topple Cameron (although I think a narrow “remain” will as well), but Farage isn’t even in Parliament so whoever forms the new government it isn’t going to be him. In 2020 we’ll get to choose new MPs, but that will be on a much broader range of issues; there’s nothing to say that we’ll vote for the leaders of the Leave campaign. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 1:54 pm First at the booth to help smash leftist scum as always Larri. No surprise that you are to be part of the postal vote fraud system first devised by ZaNu and left untouched by Mr Pork-Abuse for just some such occasion as this. Interesting that you live outside of the corrupt and scummy socialist empire you want inflicted on everybody else. dearieme June 23, 2016 at 2:00 pm “But do go and vote for the Lord’s sake.” We still have a few, fragmentary traits of being a liberal democracy. So don’t vote if you don’t bloody want to. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 2:12 pm Its everybody’s choice Dearime–but we need to remember we’re not voting on who’s funnier: Morecambe & Wise or The Two Ronnies. We are voting on a chance of beating the scum ranged against us–and Leave is only the start of the fightback– or the certainty that crowing EU slugs will be going ahead with their ever nastier plans for all of us. Us being those who want a life of freedom and prosperity. Not just in this country but all across Europe and –to some extent–the World. A NO to the EU is a NO to all the scum of the Earth. Freedom-seekers everywhere will be encouraged by our act of defiance. Simon June 23, 2016 at 2:14 pm At work today (on a customer site) they had the local radio on – and they were asking people to send in suggestions for referendum themed songs to play. One was should I stay or should I go. I thought the lyrics about summed up the difficulty (for me) of deciding : “if I stay there will be trouble, if I go it will be double”. Though I think it’s the other way around – whichever way we vote, the future is going to be painful. Personally I think it’ll be very slightly less painful if we’re not on the EU Titanic when it finally runs into the iceberg of reality which (IIRC) TW has mentioned – that a single currency can’t possibly work without total policy and fiscal integration, ie what certain top wonks clearly wanted all along even while lying about it only being about trade. If we stay, nothing will change. We couldn’t change anything before, we’ll stand even less chance of changing anything after threatening to leave if we didn’t get our way and then not leaving. If we do leave, then either it’ll accelerate the inevitable and reform will happen sooner, or we’ll be able to watch from a safe distance as it breaks up. So in spite of being scared as f**k of the possible consequences – I’ll be voting to leave because the knowns about the EU out-frighten me compared to the unknown unknowns about leaving. PS – and gentlmen (and ladies), the discussion above is not the sort of thing we should be seeing in a forum like this. At least try and be civil to each other – even if we do hate their views. One of the “British qualities” we still cling to is (at least the facade) of allowing people to hold their own views and express them. Bloke in North Dorset June 23, 2016 at 2:16 pm Front page of Bild is a cracker. If we vote remain Germany promises: “We’ll acknowledge the Wembley goal We’ll stop making jokes about Prince Charles’s ears We’ll stop using sun cream on the beach out of solidarity with your sunburn We’ll reserve a place with our towels for you on the hotel sun-lounger We’ll introduce tea breaks We’ll turn our clocks back an hour to be in synch with you We’ll do without a goalie in penalty shoot-outs with you to make it a bit more exciting We’ll send (German national football manager) Joachim Low to guard your Crown Jewels We’ll introduce an EU regulation banning a frothy head on beer We’ll all come along to the Queen’s 100th birthday We’ll willingly provide the villain in every Bond film” Bloke in Malta June 23, 2016 at 2:18 pm Mr Ecks, I’m not racist but… I swear the Maltese are some of the stupidest fuckers on the planet. And yes they govern like stupid cunts too, our next car is going to be a 4×4 because they can’t build a road wthout holes in it (and they can’t build a road with drainage, and they can’t build a road than can fit a modern bus, and they can’t build a road in a reasonable amount of time – I used to build roads, I’m very passionate about the subject). And yes, I am alright Jack, if I believe something makes my life better then I’m generally in favour of that thing. ‘You need to take a hit for the greater good’ collectivists can piss off. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 3:07 pm BiM: You may be alright now but that doesn’t mean that is for all time. It might be somewhat more comfortable to live for a while with a gangrenous leg rather than cut it off. But death-by-gangrene is very not nice and you won’t be alright when it arrives. Good luck with the Maltese. Stupid is still not evil. Liberal Yank June 23, 2016 at 3:10 pm From the BBC: Kingston upon Thames Council in south west London has moved two polling stations after they were inundated with water. I wonder who, on the other side of the channel, has experience with flooding in low lying areas and would want to see Brexit voters denied ballot access? I got one last conspiracy theory in before the polls close. The good news is this phase is over today. Lawrence June 23, 2016 at 3:24 pm “No surprise that you are to be part of the postal vote fraud system” Not really, Ecksy, proxy is different to postal. Gary June 23, 2016 at 3:36 pm @Bloke in North Dorset I honestly do not believe that ‘Leave’ is a Type 1 decision. If we were to vote Leave, does anyones honestly expect Brussels to say ‘oh all right then’ and start the process? Of course not – they will act just like they did after the Dutch Referendum and a whole bunch of reforms will tumble out of the cupboard. In Bezos’ terms, the decision to Remain is Type 1, whereas Leave is a Type 2 decision. And on that basis, we should defaualt to the choice that retains the option value i.e. Leave. Not saying we should leave or remain, but simply applying your preferred logic to the question at hand. Henry Crun June 23, 2016 at 3:41 pm Benedict Arnald: Not really, Ecksy, proxy is different to postal. Proxy is Mr Ahmed voting on behalf of Mrs Ahmed no.1, Mrs Ahmed no. 2, Mrs Ahmed no. 3 and the late Mrs Ahmed. Liberal Yank June 23, 2016 at 3:49 pm I’m not familiar with the details of your voting system. When can I find actual news? At least dogs at polling places is cute. I guess something needs to fill the page. Bloke in Germany June 23, 2016 at 4:29 pm Can’t comply Tim, I’m afraid my poll card only arrived this morning. Not that you will worry, since it’s equally obvious I’d have voted the opposite way to you. Yes, i only have myself to blame. Bloke in Germany June 23, 2016 at 4:31 pm @Fecks, On the subject of Malta (and by analogy other corrupt little islands and promontories in the med), have you perchance forgotten who was reponsible for its governance prior to its being an EU member John Square June 23, 2016 at 4:43 pm I’m going to predict Brexit by 7-10 points. Why? Same reason as the Tories won the last election: when Remain have spent the last six months telling all and sundry Brexiters are racist scum, who the fuck would admit to being one to some stranger on the street with a clipboard, or some random drongo ringing you up during tea? It’s the shy tory syndrome all over again. Plus: This’d be a protest vote against Cam/Osbourne, Blair, Brown, Darling, Millibands D & E, McDonnell, Mandyboy, Corbyn and many other political types, and in fact, the entire establishment- Bankers, Heads of Industry, Charity-leftist CEX’s the Beeb, and a multitude of other CM [(C) Ecks]: Who wouldn’t want to fuck their day up? Anyhow, that’s what I think. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 4:58 pm Biggie: So the British –who have been gone a long time, 1964 was it not–are responsible for the political state of Malta and the level of intelligence of the Maltese? And whatever their brain power they showed great guts as staunch allies in the 40s against your dear friends. Bloke in Germany June 23, 2016 at 4:58 pm @John Square, I’m predicting remain by a similar margin as seen in the Scottish referendum. We’ve heard so much about the shy voter syndrome (which accounted for the tory victory and the Scottish referendum). Brexit are the aggressive public bar loudmouths this time, the ones who know they are “obviously right”. And they are nearly as nasty as some of the Yes campaingers in the Scottish referendum. It’s been a bad-tempered and foul-mouthed campaign on both sides. It really illustrates to me the now playground nastiness level of public debate in the UK – there is intelligent commentary to be heard on both sides of the argument but it has not been to the fore. It’s so sad to see that Britain is simply not capable of having a civilised conversation any more. So I think it’s, by some margin, the innies being intimidated into silence by the golf club boors. You are right about the protest vote – I know a number of left-leaning intelligent folk who will vote Brexit (and are out and proud about it) as an anti-Cameron thing. And that merely confirms my belief that the shy tory effect is affecting the remainers. If right-on card-carrying leftist NHS employees can declaim their Brexiteering, they ain’t the ones being scared into silence. It will be an interesting night. Bloke in Germany June 23, 2016 at 5:00 pm @Fecks, If you get to claim the successes of the successful bits of the postcolonial British empire, you also get the responsibility for the failures. Otherwise you are cherry-picking. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 5:30 pm Biggie: Crap. Malta has a history of what–2000 years –and our few decades are all that matter? Nor are your prognostications about the campaign any better informed. ” It’s so sad to see that Britain is simply not capable of having a civilised conversation any more. ” Your scummy EU buddies have a huge % of Europe’s youth on the dole already and there is far worse to come. They are brazenly tyrannical scum whose arrogance grows by the year. They are enemies of personal and economic freedom. They intend that an elite of cultural Marxist slime will be the masters and the rest of us will crawl for leave to live at their behest. They are formenting a race war in which they side with medieval oppression and sexual terror. Stuff civility. Theophrastus June 23, 2016 at 5:42 pm BiG Overall, former British colonies are more successful and better governed than those of other former empires and of none. And, frankly, the point has minimal relevance to Remain vs Leave. Bloke in Germany June 23, 2016 at 5:46 pm @Fecks, My prognostications are as worthless as yours. Let’s see what the people decide. Unless you can teleport me to Manchester in the next 4 hours, neither of us can do anything more to influence the outcome. If the vote goes the way you would like it to go – I will accept that, because I don’t have a choice. It will be a huge PIA to me, as a Brit selling his labour in another EU country, but the people will have spoken – and as I earlier said on my own non-cast vote, I only have myself to blame on that. Cameron should invoke Article 50 on Friday morning and set the clock ticking. Can you make a similar commitment to accept the result if it goes the way I would like it to go? In other words, that Brexit shuts the fuck up the way the Scottish nationalists should have? Or will the whinging, special pleading, all-round bullshit and mendacious lies (alongside the occasional pertinent argument) from the Brexiteers continue, ad nauseam, on page 94? Bloke in Germany June 23, 2016 at 5:47 pm @Theophrastus, I agree. Overall. Edward Lud June 23, 2016 at 5:51 pm BiG, why will it be a PitA for you, any more than it is for a Septic, Canadian, or Indian to do it? And let’s face it, it’s not as if Germany has a recent history of hostility to immigrants … PF June 23, 2016 at 5:54 pm BiG You might personally accept the result, and good for you, but I would be somewhat surprised if a Brexit was simply accepted? Without overelaborating, one could argue that this is but a battle in a more substantial process? Theophrastus June 23, 2016 at 5:55 pm Ecksy “Stuff civility.” Except civility, rather than rudeness and aggression*, makes conversion to your point of view (which is also mine) more likely. *not to mention dingbat conspiracy theories PF June 23, 2016 at 6:02 pm JS / BiG I don’t ordinarily bet and yet I am sorely tempted by the current Brexit odds being offered right now. It just doesn’t smell right? We’ll know soon enough. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 6:09 pm So Biggie– if –and fuck Godwin etc–Adolf was back again and like to win in your neck of the woods, you would just shut your trap and try to get on with your life would you? Lie back and think of Democracy while he starts with the old Enabling Acts? Yeah your pals aren’t at his level yet. But they want a world much more akin to the one he did than the world of freedom and markets I support. You going to stay on board with mass import of 18-30 yobs then? Cos that is another plan of theirs that remain will strengthen and be claimed as support for. A plan whose results you have already objected to on this blog. Minor changes between various gangs of political pigs is one thing. Wilson/Heath etc were as useless and stupid as each other. But there were still jobs then and the hope of a better tomorrow. The EU offers nothing but –at best– tinpot dictatorship and economically stagnated stasis–and at worst outright soft totalitarian tyranny. Ad the “soft” bit is not guaranteed to last either. Once they get their own soldier boy/ security service thugs onside. The EU is the enemy of everything I value and regard as making life worthwhile. I won’t stop doing whatever I can towards their absolute destruction–and the individual, personal punishment of the gang members and supporters until I am gone or they are. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 6:17 pm Theo–if logic and the sight of evil right under their eyes won’t do it, superficial charm certainly won’t. Your remark about conspiracy proves the point. Large numbers of people–including supposedly well-educated, would-be patrician types like your self don’t even read what falls under their eye. I have told you twice that I do not believe Cox was killed in a false-flag caper –and why. I have twice repudiated conspiracy theories. But because I point out that I believe that TPTB are quite evil enough to have done so if they could–which they are–you regurgitate your pre-digested CT accusations. Because given your version of events and what is in black and white –your version is all you can see. Theophrastus June 23, 2016 at 6:29 pm For several decades, I have been looking for a strong argument for British membership of the EU. AFAIK, there’s isn’t one. The UK doesn’t gain from the balance of trade with the EU, and our non-exporting businesses suffer a huge and unnecessary regulatory burden. Non-EU imports are more more expensive, particularly food. There’s a vague geo-political argument, but bilateral treaties and NATO undermine that. All the Remainers I have discussed the matter with justify their decision so to vote on short-termism and narrow grounds of self-interest….I fear the short term consequences of Brexit, the £ will fall, we have a second home in France/Spain/Italy, my engineer daughter will have more job choices in the EU, etc, etc. They look embarrassed when I gently point out that these are prudential and self-interested concerns, and that this is a referendum on the future of our nation-state. Do they want to live in a self-governing nation, or not? Remain, I think, will win, because of inertia and self-interest. I predict that the margin will be quite small – eg 52:48 – so the issue will still be a live one. I have a family contact in the higher reaches of the Civil Service who tells me that many there believe that the EU will inevitably collapse later this century, and that they believe that it will be better for the UK to be on the inside when the inevitable occurs, rather than get the historical blame for triggering it with Brexit. I don’t agree, but it’s interesting. Theophrastus June 23, 2016 at 6:40 pm Ecksy: “But because I point out that I believe that TPTB are quite evil enough to have done so if they could–which they are” That’s a conspiracy theory in my book. You have zero evidence, but you assert that “they could”. Who knows? But, on the evidence available, the likelihood is vanishingly small. And such evidence-free speculation makes waverers opt for Remain, because they see such views as crazy. To achieve any change in a rightward political direction, you need to build a coalition beyond your small constituency of YouTube ranters and angry divorced old men. Theophrastus June 23, 2016 at 6:44 pm Ecksy “if logic and the sight of evil right under their eyes won’t do it, superficial charm certainly won’t.” Charm + evidence + logic is more likely to achieve a change of view than anger + evidence + logic. dsylexic June 23, 2016 at 6:45 pm i work in the UK and because of your bizarre rules ,i got to vote in the referendum -apparently because your forefathers ruled over india some 70 years ago. since the brits gave india freedom, i thought this was a good chance for me to return the favour 😉 independence is good. be free of the EU comrades! Bloke in Germany June 23, 2016 at 6:57 pm @Lud, The point is that it will be a similar PIA to me as a Septic, Canuck, Paki, Saffer, and so on. I hire people like that regularly so I understand the PIA factor better than most. The fact that we can reduce that PIA-ness for a lot of people (myself included) is a positive (maybe it does or does not outweigh the negatives). But surely the “no government bureaucrat can say I can’t live here” is the libertarian option? Germany’s recent “immigrant friendliness” is an issue for many here i- mainly based on the type and number of immigrants. That “many here” includes ardent Europeanists like the FDP whose semi-official position is (I apologise to them if I misquote) we have a humanitarian duty to look after these people while the war is on and those who have failed to settle of their own accord in the meantime should go home the day after it ends. There isn’t widespread opposition, even among the AfD, to migration of other Europeans to Germany to work and pay taxes and go about their own lives quietly while contributing to society rather than detracting from it. There’s a recognition there of a shared European culture, society, set of values, and perhaps even demos, that does not extend to the Islamic middle-east. @PF, Cameron has said that in the event of a Brexit vote he will, on Friday morning, accept the instructions of the British people and get to work delivering them. As odious as I find Cameron (and frankly most politicians), that would be him doing his job as PM. Right? @Ecks, If Adolf were back in my neck of the woods, I’d leave. And I recognise that I am very fortunate that that would be an option for me – it would not be an option for many others. It’s actually one of the reasons my citizenship application is in here (the other being of course insurance against Brexit). As a good friend of mine, who holds probably the most blessed combination of Irish and Swiss nationality observed, the people who got out back then were those with two passports – one of which the Nazis couldn’t withdraw on a whim. The 18-30 yob importation scheme is of Merkel’s making, not the EU’s. In fact the EU has shown itself as singularly incapable of finding a functional solution to this. Demonstrating that national interest (we won’t help solve this mess) wins on any matter more important than the straightness of bananas. This, what you describe as tinpot dictators, are pretty ineffective at it, aren’t they? PF June 23, 2016 at 7:09 pm @PF, Cameron has said that in the event of a Brexit vote he will, on Friday morning, accept the instructions of the British people and get to work delivering them. As odious as I find Cameron (and frankly most politicians), that would be him doing his job as PM. Right? You never know, we may even find out. But there is no precedent for the EU accepting such referenda decisions from its regional electorates..;) And I wouldn’t regard Friday morning as the test. Like previous examples, let’s examine it (if it does happen) a couple of years or so down the road… dsylecix 🙂 Bloke in Germany June 23, 2016 at 7:12 pm @Theo, The sovereignty argument is intellectually Brexit’s strongest, yet it has not been prominent, and has its own problems. Total sovereignty is bilateral – you get total freedom to decide what happens within your own borders, and zero influence on what happens without them. The EU is merely one mechanism of trying to find some kind of mutually-beneficial compromise on such issues. It’s imperfect, by definition requires compromise and concessions, but so does all international diplomacy. Is total sovereignty actually the best state of affairs? To take an admittedly extreme example, ask a halfway intelligent Gazan. You can have total sovereignty to determine your own affairs, but if that involves your biggest neighbour and customer, the country that exercises de-facto control over your currency and connections to the outside world, and used to employ a million of your citizens, building a big wall around you, letting nothing out and nothing but food and humanitarian aid in, perhaps you need to do some Realpolitik. Ditch the clause about driving the Jews into the sea, try and make some kind of peace from the (if understandable in the historical context) admittedly one-sided and unjust conflict, and secure greater freedoms for your people. Look to the future, not the past, in other words. The EU, in that it does this with now 28 countries, rather than all 28 having to secure a wide range of bilateral treaties, is actually a labour-saving device. We have fewer politicians, bureaucrats, and costs, if perhaps more compromise involved, than would be needed to do it on a pure nation-state basis. And the EU can still compromise its principles for the outliers – for the UK, Sweden, Denmark. It can bend over backwards for profligate Greece and keep thrifty Germany on side. It was founded in liberal, not socialist, philosophy, and needs Britain’s liberal voice in there. Are you really better off outside the tent pissing in, than inside, pissing out? John Square June 23, 2016 at 7:32 pm @ BiG: “Are you really better off outside the tent pissing in, than inside, pissing out?” Depends whether those others in the tent started pissing on you inside the tent first. 😉 (Also: whilst I don’t agree with your views, you state them politely, and back up your arguments with compelling thinking. If only all debates over Brexit were done with such courtesy) Anon June 23, 2016 at 7:44 pm Theophrastus, My own take on it is that the EU used to really matter in terms of trade, but is diminishing every year, to the point where having a special community with them is close to being irrelevant. To me, it goes like this: The EEC made sense in the post-war era as we got things like better roads, trucks and ferries and goods could be moved more easily. We could start getting olives and Camembert. And it was a world where lots of the world was communist, before the era of the container ship or the internet. When Britain joined, we still had a motorcycle industry. Almost all our wine came from Europe. Come forward to today and people outsource software to Hanoi or buy wine from Chile. As long as goods aren’t too perishable or heavy, they can be supplied from all sorts of places. That is our world. And that’s why I’m voting to leave. Whether it makes sense now or in 10 or 15 years, we’re going to untangle because trade is far more global. John Square June 23, 2016 at 7:47 pm @ BiG A gentle fisk: “Brexit are the aggressive public bar loudmouths this time, the ones who know they are “obviously right”. And they are nearly as nasty as some of the Yes campaingers in the Scottish referendum.” Not according to the stuff I’ve seen on social media (the usual leftist rubbish about Brexiteers being racists who don’t understand the world, and who are all dying to return to an Agatha Christie like England that never existed). They are same lefties who claimed that the General election result didn’t count because more people didn’t vote tory than did, and who all seem incapable of discussing any facts without trying to shame their opponents with words like “callous” and “uncaring”. I don’t deny there’s some twats on the Brexit side, nor that the political campaigns have been negative, but I don’t accept that the average brexiteer is the villain of the piece. The exiters I know have all been very very softly spoken; to the extent that I was surprised when they started to subtly out themselves a week or two back.. “It’s been a bad-tempered and foul-mouthed campaign on both sides. It really illustrates to me the now playground nastiness level of public debate in the UK – there is intelligent commentary to be heard on both sides of the argument but it has not been to the fore. It’s so sad to see that Britain is simply not capable of having a civilised conversation any more.” I don’t disagree- the tone here has been less civil recently (and I’d guess that we’re 80% for leave- lord knows what it would be like if it were 50/50) “You are right about the protest vote – I know a number of left-leaning intelligent folk who will vote Brexit (and are out and proud about it) as an anti-Cameron thing.” And I think there are plenty of tory voters who were undecided will vote out to achieve the same end. “And that merely confirms my belief that the shy tory effect is affecting the remainers. If right-on card-carrying leftist NHS employees can declaim their Brexiteering, they ain’t the ones being scared into silence.” My suspicion is that Brexiteers are making a heart-led decision, and the remainers are led by their heads- I also suspect that head-led decisions are more short termist (as you point out). I also think that waverers (in the privacy of the booth) will trust their gut call- as they did in the GE and Scots Referendum, and in the AV vote (remember that?!) Finally- You mention golf club boors: it’s a great stereotype, but I cannot come up with such a strong image for the average remainer. Does that indicate that the mudslinging of the remain campaign was more vitriolic and nasty? Does it show where the shy tories really hide? Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 7:47 pm “That’s a conspiracy theory in my book. You have zero evidence, but you assert that “they could”. Who knows? But, on the evidence available, the likelihood is vanishingly small. And such evidence-free speculation makes waverers opt for Remain, because they see such views as crazy.” A conspiracy is by its nature a claim or series of claims about a chain of events, actions etc. An assessment of possible/probable personal character is not and by its very nature cannot be a conspiracy theory. My evidence is the numerous mysterious and convenient deaths that litter the entire world’s political landscape. In every place and in every age, the same kind of creatures seek power over their fellow humans . Some are worse than others . Some times/places have circumstances that allow the evil more scope than other times and places. But the lust to dominate others, to “boss the grass in the meadow about which way to bend in the breeze” as P J O’Rourke puts it, never changes. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 8:00 pm “The 18-30 yob importation scheme is of Merkel’s making, not the EU’s. In fact the EU has shown itself as singularly incapable of finding a functional solution to this. Demonstrating that national interest (we won’t help solve this mess) wins on any matter more important than the straightness of bananas. This, what you describe as tinpot dictators, are pretty ineffective at it, aren’t they?” So its the lone nutter theory applied to migration now is it Biggie? I doubt Merkel takes a leak without checking with Brussels–or are you saying Europe is all about Germany? I wonder how many of the self-hating political hacks of Europe, busy opining that white people are bad and should get used to being replaced are supporters of Brexit. The EU has simple solutions staring them in the face. Stop the boats and deport the yobs already here. And kick the shit out of and then deport the gropey gang. Not rocket science. But not wanted if your real aim is to balkanise and weaken European nations to establish your own rotten power base. They are tinpot dictators who are facing populations that are waking up to what scum their “rulers” are. Hence the obscene rush to the Referendum. Another year or two and nobody will know the trouble the EU is going to see. Try and lock the UK in quick. Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 8:03 pm John Square:” My suspicion is that Brexiteers are making a heart-led decision, and the remainers are led by their heads-” By their wallets and the fear their pile of peanuts might be diminished and the latest iJerk gadget might be beyond their price. The joke being they will get an economic shitkicking soon regardless of the EU or not. Bloke in North Dorset June 23, 2016 at 8:17 pm ” the innies being intimidated into silence by the golf club boors” On the few occasions I’ve heard it discussed at my golf club it’s been amongst the seniors, the ones most likely to be the golf club boors, and the general line seems to be they will vote in the best interests of their grand children and I’d say it’s 50/50. In the general area of the GC there are more Remain than Leave posters Anon June 23, 2016 at 8:41 pm Bloke in Germany, “And that merely confirms my belief that the shy tory effect is affecting the remainers. If right-on card-carrying leftist NHS employees can declaim their Brexiteering, they ain’t the ones being scared into silence.” That’s not what I’m seeing. I’m seeing almost entirely a view of “outers are racist bastards that murdered Peoples Princess Jo Cox MP”. And I’ve not seen NHS employees, but more the old left, those run down bits of the north, for instance. I think it’s going to be fascinating what happens in those seats even with a loss. If UKIP can get their act together, they’ll take a lot of them. BniC June 23, 2016 at 9:12 pm I would have thought a poster of mandelson and kinnock with their EU earnings in large numbers would have been an effective out message. Maybe a tag line along the lines of would you pay this much for these two Theophrastus June 23, 2016 at 9:24 pm BiG “Total sovereignty is bilateral – you get total freedom to decide what happens within your own borders, and zero influence on what happens without them.” Not true. Sovereign nations can influence what happens in other countries – by treaty or by soft power. And with sovereignty comes accountability of government to the electorate, which is the only workable foundation for legitimate goverment. In the EU, we lose not only sovereignty but also government accountability. “The EU is merely one mechanism of trying to find some kind of mutually-beneficial compromise on such issues.” Merely?? It’s also, and above all, an undemocratic attempt to create a multi-national state by bureaucratic fiat. “The EU,…, is actually a labour-saving device. We have fewer politicians, bureaucrats, and costs, if perhaps more compromise involved, than would be needed to do it on a pure nation-state basis.” Really? The EU is a costly and remote bureaucracy. A small secretariat could achieve basic european coordination, if the aim wasn’t to create a federal super-state. “It was founded in liberal, not socialist, philosophy, and needs Britain’s liberal voice in there.” Liberals, whether social or classic, always underestimate the importance of culture. PJF June 23, 2016 at 9:45 pm Fifteen minutes until the polling booths close, and soon we’ll have an exit poll. Less than three hours until the first results roll in. I’m sticking with my “comfortable” Leave win prediction. Theophrastus June 23, 2016 at 9:52 pm PJF I hope you are right. I’ll be delighted to be proved wrong. PF June 23, 2016 at 9:55 pm I don’t think there’s an exit poll for this one? PJF June 23, 2016 at 9:57 pm Is this: http://synonblog.dailymail.co.uk/2009/10/in-prague-very-well-then-alone.html the inspiration for Tim’s post title? PJF June 23, 2016 at 9:59 pm Could be, PF. I was speaking without knowledge there. (hey, people have now seen us in the same room) PJF June 23, 2016 at 10:00 pm Oh well, it’s done and dusted now, and I think I’m out of booze. Going for a rummage… Theophrastus June 23, 2016 at 10:04 pm Yes, no exit polls, PF. Lawrence June 23, 2016 at 10:27 pm Nifel Garage has announced that it will be a narrow Remain. My guess is a Leave by 2.5. I think that the Leave voters will be more motivated by the raw immigration argument. It’s a safe bet, especially a spread with Remain by 1. ] If I were to go for bigger odds, Remain by 6, hedged with Leave by 4. 80+% turn out in Gib PJF June 23, 2016 at 10:28 pm YouGov did a sort of exit poll (contacting previous responders to find out which way they voted in the end): 52% Remain win Farage predicts Remain win. Ooer. Lawrence June 23, 2016 at 10:57 pm Farage has changed his mind! Bloke in Germany June 23, 2016 at 11:01 pm Surely Britain Out Of Europe should start with Gibraltar? Mr Ecks June 23, 2016 at 11:22 pm Britain out of Europe is limited thinking. The EU utterly destroyed is the way to go. PJF June 23, 2016 at 11:22 pm Straw Man in Germany: “Surely Britain Out Of Europe should start with Gibraltar?” It’s UK out of the EU, not out of Europe. I’ve always felt that when the time comes we should hand over Gibraltar to Morocco, so they can better negotiate for Ceuta and Melilla. While the Spics sort that out, we seize the Canary Islands. PJF June 23, 2016 at 11:24 pm Farage has changed his mind back to Remain win. Lawrence June 23, 2016 at 11:40 pm 96-4 remain in Gib. Duh. PJF June 24, 2016 at 12:02 am Sunderland = Remain. Game over, I’m off to bed. PJF June 24, 2016 at 12:03 am PJF = Twat – that was Newcastle, not Sunderland. Staying up a bit longer PJF June 24, 2016 at 12:07 am Ooh, and Newcastle was expected to be a much bigger Remain win. Staying up much longer. PJF June 24, 2016 at 12:25 am Sunderland = Leave+ = delicious. 61 / 39 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfnhmuZ27eQ PF June 24, 2016 at 12:26 am So much for some early shut eye… Looks like the pound just tanked – maybe the penny’s dropped… Sorry I couldn’t resist that! https://www.worldfirst.com/uk/foreign-exchange/ (against the dollar) Way too early of course… PF June 24, 2016 at 12:29 am That was post Sunderland – and both Newcastle and Sunderland in the north east, so no clue yet as to whether that’s simply regional? PF June 24, 2016 at 12:30 am PJF – just saw your post – no, I’m not trying to do a double act..:) Lawrence June 24, 2016 at 12:45 am I’m staying up for a bit. It’s Leave all the way. If I was doing ‘bet in play’ I’d lay on 60:40 leave. Blimey, someone’s making money on trading Sterling.. PF June 24, 2016 at 1:25 am Fascinating. I’m partially taking my steer from the live £/$ rate. I reckon – as the results come in – they have got to be way ahead of the journalists! It’s looking interesting – the first two in the north east might also have had a strong regional influence? PJF June 24, 2016 at 1:41 am £/$ rate seems relatively stable for the last 3/4 hour. More large English results needed before bed. PJF June 24, 2016 at 1:44 am Labour’s Chris Bryant says he might punch Ed Miliband ‘because he’s a tosspot’ Trying to laugh quietly… PJF June 24, 2016 at 2:05 am Pound tanking again. PJF June 24, 2016 at 2:33 am Pound back up. PF June 24, 2016 at 3:00 am Real mixed bag in places, comparing with this: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-referendum-map-shows-how-brexit-different-parts-of-the-uk-are_uk_57691f46e4b01fb658641757 In that some obvious outs are perhaps less than expected. Watford just declared out – outer London (inside the M25) and was expected to be in; we need more London results, but it could be significant? ….. Rumour was that some big city firms did their own polling, and then piled big time into the bookies before the polls closed? I’m a little bit confused. Were they wandering around Clacton in their pinstripes with clipboards or something? PJF June 24, 2016 at 4:16 am Highly entertaining. Going to bed in an optimistic mood. It appears my predictive abilities may be slightly better than a random octopus. Bloke in Germany June 24, 2016 at 4:24 am Well, congratulations to the outs. Liberal Yank June 24, 2016 at 4:54 am Interesting times. DocBud June 24, 2016 at 5:07 am On a Hunter Valley wine tour in an increasingly enhanced state of celebration. Beyond my wildest dreams after a lifetime if being an unwilling citizen if the EU. Mr Ecks June 24, 2016 at 5:12 am Biggie: Thank you–and I mean it. djc June 24, 2016 at 5:24 am Hurrah! and damnation to the political classes. DocBud June 24, 2016 at 5:36 am Of not if, bloody Ritchie spellchecker. If you come to the Hunter, Gundog Estate, brilliant Shiraz wines. Great way to toast victory. PJF June 24, 2016 at 6:06 am So much for sleep. The vote is now a victory. We are getting out! DocBud June 24, 2016 at 6:17 am Listening to the Remainers and Euro pollies is going to be such great sport. Theophrastus June 24, 2016 at 6:20 am Happy Independence Day, everyone!!! DocBud June 24, 2016 at 6:46 am I’ve been drinking wine since 10:00, now nearly 16:00 so I’m not entirely sober and I’m still finding this unbelievable. A lifetime of being an EU citizen against my wishes will soon come to an end. Leave a Reply Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment Name * Email * Website Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.