So, err, what happens now?

Fourteen Turkish navy ships remained at sea and unaccounted for last night amid concerns that their commanders may be coup conspirators seeking to defect.

80 thoughts on “So, err, what happens now?”

  1. I think what happens now is Turkey becomes officially an Islamic State.

    Which might be quite good in the long run. It’s about time Europe took back Constantinople for Christendom.

  2. The Russian Black Sea Fleet gets an upgrade?

    I believe France and Norway, for example, had German WWII U-Boats in their navies into the 1960s.

  3. Well, we might as well plan ahead. There’s going to be a war, so taking back the lands the Arabs conquered would be nice.

    A few corpses dangling from the Theodosian Walls would be an impressive statement of victory. Let’s face it, Christendom made a serious mistake when we let Constantinople fall to the Turks.

  4. “Christendom made a serious mistake when we let Constantinople fall to the Turks.” It was Latin Christendom that doomed the Byzantine Empire by its actions during the fourth crusade: after centuries of ups and downs there was no way back after the Sack of Constantinople.

  5. The Fourth Crusade didn’t help, but neither did the schism of Eastern and Western Churches and numerous other factors. The European response to Islam and in general was chaotic.

    Nonetheless, Constantinople could have been saved, and should have been. There’s rarely “no way back”.

  6. Ian B- I don’t think I can contribute to this other than thinking that it’s not a very good idea. Also I worry about inadequate planning for the aftermath.
    btw – Count Belisarius – Robert Graves’ novel about the guy who first saved 4thC Eastern Empire before bailing out the Western one. v good read

  7. Constantinople could be part of Greece if the West were not so war weary at the end of WW1. Supporting the Greeks would also have staunched the flight of ethnic Greeks from Western Anatolia, their homeland for three thousand years, culminating in the sack of Smyrna be Ataturk (think Dunkirk with women and children trapped between sea and burning shore, Aristotle Onassis was one of the orphans).

  8. “Count Belisarius – Robert Graves’ novel about the guy who first saved 4thC Eastern Empire before bailing out the Western one. v good read”

    I love that book.

    Regarding Turkey, I see the EU has said the re-introduction of the Death Penalty will be the end of Turkey’s EU application. Erdogan’s abuse of power, the mass arrests, mass sackings of judges weren’t a problem, but the EU finally stamps it’s foot when things get REALLY bad.

  9. I think the best we can hope for is a really nasty civil war in which the secularists prevail. Invading Istanbul is a bit silly, unless we want to get involved in another actual war, rather than a counterinsurgency campaign. If we can’t stand losing 400 blokes in ten years, losing 4,000 in a day will be spicey. It would also destroy our Army.

    Which currently numbers perhaps 30,000 actual fighting men. By comparison, we have about 2.7 million muslims in the UK now and – if you believe the Guardian’s recent figures – about a hundred thousand of them are hot to trot on the blowing up front.

    I think – as I’ve said before, as have others – that we’re going to find out in the next decade or two just how peaceful Islam really is.

    To those of you who claimed it was ‘racist’ to criticise this insanity, I can only say, buckle up. You can put shit off, lie about it and ignore it, but you can’t put shit off, lie about it and ignore it forever.

  10. If Erdogan arrests too many soldiers he will have no trained army. This might give people ideas.
    Stalin found this out.

  11. John Malpas – he has about 350,000 of them. Some way to go yet. Plus a unknown millions of guerillas in waiting, with limitless AKs lying around. He’s going nowhere without a very serious revolution or some lucky assassination.

  12. ” Let’s face it, Christendom made a serious mistake when we let Constantinople fall to the Turks.”

    Breaks my heart every time I visit Istanbul and enter Hagia Sophia – to see where my ancestors worshipped for nearly a thousand years before the infidels took over. I blame the Pope.

    @ Hallowed Be

    Not read the book but Belisarius, possibly the greatest general of all time, was largely kept on campaign for political reasons – Justinian felt threatened by his popularity.

  13. He has about 350,000 of them.
    Why so many?- to keep Iran and Greece at bey*? Wouldn’t it be better (especially now that military reform is a certainty) to keep the budget but spend it on quality?

    *(pun intended -coat is already donned)

  14. @Tim N

    ‘Useless if the officer classes have been decimated and the navy and air force cleaned out.’

    Useless?! In what context? We’re talking as a way of responding to a western invasion of Istanbul, right?

    They’ve lost a few majors and colonels – they haven’t had their guns decommissioned.

    I suggest that 350,000 random blokes with AKs and tanks and all the ammo, fuel and supplies they need to hand, whereas yours are being flown in and shot down on a daily basis, would be highly problematic, never mind the Turkish Army (who are good fighting soldiers, if not all that highly trained) fighting to defend its capital city. In that situation, officers would essentially have fuck all to do with it anyway.

    The casualties would be horrific, bearing in mind they are in buildings and you are in the streets. One giant honeypot for every Islamic nutter in the world to flock to – never mind that this is already a city of some 14 million people, with probably 200,000 armed police, and the aforementioned X million irregulars who just proved they’re willing to lie down in front of tanks.

    Seriously, it would be the end of the west, unless we’re going back to the days of Bomber Harris, and are going to ignore the Guardian.

  15. @Hallowed B

    ‘Why so many?- to keep Iran and Greece at bey*? Wouldn’t it be better (especially now that military reform is a certainty) to keep the budget but spend it on quality?’

    These boys always like big standing armies, don’t they? Plus conscription keeps the unemployment down and teaches the lads a bit of discipline.

  16. Interested: “The end of the west”? What garbage. The current situation of racial suicide is the end of the West. The destruction of the eternal Turk will be the start of reclaiming the West.

  17. @Paul Rain

    ‘Interested: “The end of the west”? What garbage. The current situation of racial suicide is the end of the West. The destruction of the eternal Turk will be the start of reclaiming the West.’

    Ha ha – ‘The destruction of the eternal Turk’. Like it.

    I am all on board with ridding the west of the scourge of Islamism – I am not on board with travelling to Turkey and taking the fight to them there (unless you’re advocating modern-day Bomber Harris tactics, as I said) for the reasons I just laid out above.

    If you want to explain to me why your view of what would happen in the event that we tried a Gulf(ish) War 3 option in Turkey would be any different that what I suggest it would be, ie a charnel house for us and them, I’m all ears.

    Us and them is important, because even if we kill them 3-1, or 5-1, or 10-1, they still come out on top. There are a fucking sight more of them than us, and they care a lot less about death than we do.

    Our technological advantages keep us safe (for now). I have no idea when that situation will end but I do know that your Army can’t defend your country, or your culture, when it is all dead in the streets of Istanbul, you fatuous tool.

  18. ^ I mean, really. There are 1.5 billion muslims in the world. We can’t kill them all, even if we wanted to as ‘Steel’ Rain seems rather frottingly to think we should. We just want the mad ones to be mad at home. Is it that hard?

  19. Bloke in North Dorset

    Obviously talk of invading Constantinople is rhetoric*, the real question is whether or not we would support Turkey as a NATO ally if, say, Russia moved in?

    *I hope so …..

  20. Just to clarify, I don’t mean a war against Turkey. I’m talking about the war that will come when the new Islamic Empire forms and we end up in a total war situation.

    It’s going to be nasty, and it’ll be helpful to remember that it’s a reconquista. And taking back Constantinople would be a major strategic and symbolic victory.

  21. NB, we don’t need to kill all the Muslims. We didn’t kill all the Nazis did we? Bear in mind that this is an enemy who, unlike even the Nazis, wants to kill all of us.

  22. @Ian B

    ‘Just to clarify, I don’t mean a war against Turkey. I’m talking about the war that will come when the new Islamic Empire forms and we end up in a total war situation.

    It’s going to be nasty, and it’ll be helpful to remember that it’s a reconquista. And taking back Constantinople would be a major strategic and symbolic victory.’

    Well that’s a different matter. But fuck symbolism – not worth a Stalingrad of lives to inherit a ruined city. The sensible option is to take off and nuke the entire site from orbit, ie Bomber Harris 2.0: This Time We’re Serious.

    It would also mean hitting perhaps fifty other cities, of course, probably in alliance with the Russians and Chinese who have their own motivations.

    Fuck, I almost believe this is going to happen, too.

  23. What happens now?

    We send a gunboat, what else?

    It’s about as sensible a suggestion as many of the posts above.

  24. Interested-

    Taking the city back and restoring the Hagia Sophia etc would be a major psychological blow to the enemy and boost to our own side. It doesn’t necessarily mean another Stalingrad, technology and capabilities have moved on. Plus, we need to take the city by some other means than soaking it in radioactive fallout to keep the Bosphorus open.

    No, I’m not claiming military expertise. But we have generals who are meant to be good at that sort of winning wars thing, so long as they have sensible war aims and rules of engagement.

    Plus we’ll probably have ABC Warrior type robots by then.

  25. AD-

    Well what happens now seems to be to stop fooling ourselves that the rapidly Islamismising Turkey is our ally as their Islamic Revolution unfolds.

  26. @AD

    ‘What happens now?
    We send a gunboat, what else?
    It’s about as sensible a suggestion as many of the posts above.’

    Who said anything about gunboats? We should stay out of it as far as possible, and hope they all fall on each other.

    @IanB

    ‘It doesn’t necessarily mean another Stalingrad, technology and capabilities have moved on.’

    Respectfully Ian they haven’t really. I mean, yes, night vision (which the enemy also has), ways of intercepting comms (which they may also have), but at the end of it there is only one way to take a city and that is by arriving in armoured vehicles, getting out of them and kicking down the first door.

    When you get past the defences and IEDs and machine gun fire and snipers and harassment etc and you manage to shoot, bayonet or grenade everyone in that house or factory or office block or hotel, you move on to the next.

    Of course, you have lost 5-10% of your men dead or injured at the first objective, so the second one gets harder. By the tenth you are just dropping big bombs on them. (Which also employ new tech, but it does lead to Stalingrad.) And this is a city of 14 million people.

    Only special forces troops have the ability to do house-to-house close quarter battle with any accuracy, and they operate almost entirely on small-scale, targeted, intelligence-led, night-time raids, which is what UK forces did in Baghdad and elsewhere, night after night after night. They are extremely good at it, but it’s not an infantry assault and it is not a way to take a city.

    We have four sqns of SAS, approx 250 men, and a few SBS who are not really in the same league but still. We’d ruin the cream of our SF for a generation inside a month, and we may well end up needing them at home.

    Plus – talk about symbolism – we’d lose!

  27. I can’t go into a pub these days without people demanding the return of Hagia Sophia to Christianity. Catholic Christianity mind, not that Eastern rubbish which had it for a thousand years or so.

  28. BTW Ian – ABC Warrior – ha ha takes me back. What you actually want is time travelling tyrannosaurs.

  29. We’re talking as a way of responding to a western invasion of Istanbul, right?

    I wasn’t…I was commenting on the overall effectiveness of the Turkish armed forces. The Red Army had plenty of manpower in 1940, but had been decapitated and decimated. A small army with decent NCOs and officers is better than a huge army with political appointees as officers and no NCOs: the Israelis have relied on this point since their founding.

    We have four sqns of SAS, approx 250 men, and a few SBS who are not really in the same league but still

    The SBS and SAS are pretty much interchangeable these days. The Hills part of their selection has been combined for at least a decade, and AFAIK so has the jungle. The head of the counter-terrorist group in London a few years back was an SBS officer. I even think the SBS is open to non-Royals now in order to bring the units closer together.

  30. Well if we can’t win wars, why have we got an army then? Might as well get rid of the rest of the troops and tanks and save the money.

    By the way, there’s been another NARM attack in France, mother and daughters stabbed for being “scantily dressed” on a beach.

  31. The Red Army, even decapitated, eventually held the Wehrmacht. Then with better leadership its manpower and tactics overwhelmed them.

    Like everyone else, it took time to learn to counter the Wehrmacht’s use of armoured forces.

  32. The Red Army, even decapitated, eventually held the Wehrmacht.

    They did, just, thanks to factors such as enormous strategic depth (i.e. being able to lose areas the size of Europe and still have your major cities in your possession), crap German logistics, General Winter, Hitler’s bone-headedness, and Stalin finally realising he needed to appoint generals that knew what they were doing.

    Turkey would be no pushover in the face of a Western invasion (which will never happen). But it is fairly easy to see them getting bogged down somewhere – either at home or next door in Syria/Iraq – and suffering the same fate as the Soviets in Afghanistan.

  33. The BBC have buried that story deep on their website. Whereas they featured the world-important story of Mrs Trump’s speech on the front page for most of today.

  34. @Tim N

    I wasn’t

    Ah – I was. I was responding to someone (Ian B?) suggesting reclaiming Istanbul for the West was a good idea, which was why I said ‘Invading Istanbul is a bit silly, unless we want to get involved in another actual war, rather than a counterinsurgency campaign. If we can’t stand losing 400 blokes in ten years, losing 4,000 in a day will be spicey. It would also destroy our Army.’

    If you’re just saying armies run better with officers, of course they do. That’s pretty obvious – it’s why they have them.

    The SBS and SAS are pretty much interchangeable these days. The Hills part of their selection has been combined for at least a decade

    Selection is the same, but you have to state at the outset what you’re going for. But otherwise, no, the SBS is not as good as the SAS, and the reason is obvious. They essentially draw on the Royal Marines, which is a relatively small pool of men, albeit that it contains some excellent soldiers, whereas the SAS draws on the Army, which is much bigger. The SBS is basically what the SAS would be if the SAS only recruited from the Paras (and spent their days pointlessly climbing ropes). The post-selection experience is *very* different, too.

    There are quite a few transferees from the RM to the SAS, and even from the SBS to the SAS, but none in the other direction (AFAIK). If you can name any (already in the public domain obvs) I’d stand corrected.

    This is not to knock the SBS – very very good soldiers. It’s just a statement of fact. A bit like the NZ and AUS SAS are not as good, for precisely the same reasons.

    Anyway, bit OT, sorry for that.

  35. Apparently everyone thinks NATO can’t win a war anywhere. I don’t see the point of all those expensive troops and hardware then, get rid of the lot. We’ll lose anyway.

    As I said also, I’m predicting that we’re heading for a full scale war between some sort of Islamic federation/empire/caliphate/whatever and Everybody Else.

    As usual, we’ll be on the same side as our natural ally, Russia, in such matters.

  36. Re Ian B’s story from France, this is the Telegraph:

    An eight-year-old French girl was fighting for her life after she, her mother and two sisters were stabbed at a holiday resort on Tuesday by a Moroccan-born man who reportedly shouted that they were too scantily dressed.

    The man was arrested after the attack at the Alpine resort of Colombe, near Laragne, in southern France.

    The 8-year-old was rushed to hospital in Grenoble with a punctured lung, according to initial reports.

    Her mother, 46, and sisters aged 12 and 14, are being treated at the hospital of Gap, closer to the scene of the attack. Their injuries are severe but not considered life-threatening.

    The attack took place around 10 am. The assailant stabbed the three girls on the terrace of of their chalet before attacking their mother inside.

    He stabbed her in the chest, the newspaper Dauphine Libere reported.

    The local mayor, Edmond Francou, said he preferred “not to speculate about the motive of the attack” in the wake of the massacre in Nice last week.

    The Moroccan-born attacker has a police record for petty crimes over the past 15 years.

    He is reported to have been on holiday at the resort with his pregnant wife and two children. The two families were staying next to each other and the assailant’s wife is “devastated”, according to the mayor.

    The victims of the attack are from Nantes, in western France, and often holidayed at the resort.

    The attacker is from the Paris area.

    Shocked holidaymakers were receiving counselling at the resort.

    Ironman? SJW? Aren’t you going to criticise this racist eight-year-old girl for daring to bigotedly inflame this guy by wearing shorts on holiday in her own country?

  37. I think it’s safe to say that France is now past the tipping point us racists predicted years ago.

  38. @Ian B

    Apparently everyone thinks NATO can’t win a war anywhere. I don’t see the point of all those expensive troops and hardware then, get rid of the lot. We’ll lose anyway.

    A lot depends on the rules of engagement, and who you’re fighting, and where. The British Army could have wrapped Helmand up in a weekend, but you had soldiers literally being refused permission to fire into treelines from where they were being engaged because they couldn’t see if there were non combatants in the general vicinity.

    Fighting a war while trying hard to kill no-one is not easy. I’d go so far as to say it’s impossible. It is an unserious way to fight but that was an unserious war declared by unserious people. Next time we may not be so lucky, but in any case NATO is still highly important.

    As I said also, I’m predicting that we’re heading for a full scale war between some sort of Islamic federation/empire/caliphate/whatever and Everybody Else.
    As usual, we’ll be on the same side as our natural ally, Russia, in such matters.

    I fear you’re right, certainly on the former part.

  39. Interetted-

    That’s why I mentioned the rules of engagement. We couldn’t have won WWII (let alone the Russians winning their 2/3rds of it) with ridiculous rules of engagement that stop the troops fighting.

    If we continue with such rules, it is pointless going to war.

  40. Selection is the same, but you have to state at the outset what you’re going for. But otherwise, no, the SBS is not as good as the SAS, and the reason is obvious.

    The issue I have with this is that they are used for pretty much the same jobs (the SBS boat stuff wasn’t much use in Afghanistan), and I’ve not heard anyone say the SAS does it better or they get picked before the SBS because they are likely to. I think even their command structure puts them much closer together than they used to be.

  41. According to Tacitus, in battle the Germanic Tribes would have their women along, who would stand on the sidelines exposing their breasts to remind their menfolk what they were fighting for and spur them to greater exertions and victory.

    When I am Prime Minister I will set up a Special Boobs Service to ensure victory.

  42. “Apparently everyone thinks NATO can’t win a war anywhere. I don’t see the point of all those expensive troops and hardware then, get rid of the lot. We’ll lose anyway.”

    I don’t think it’s that our armies are physically incapable of winning; it’s that we, as a civilisation, no longer seem to have the will to win.

  43. We don’t need to win a war just to keep the Dark Ages from overrunning our part of the world as well as persuade them that trying to invade will annihilate them.

  44. It’s unlikely that they’ll stop without a thorough military defeat. This is all going to come to a head I think. History is like that.

  45. Erdogan is going the full Dark Age: there will be no debate about anything:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-19/erdogan-unleashes-unprecedented-crackdown-fires-all-university-deans-suspends-21000-
    This is why, ever since Al-Ghazali in the 11th Century declared that science and enquiry were false constructions limiting Allah’s power, Islamic societies have persecuted innovation and become backward shitholes. It’s why we will defeat them in the long run if we free ourselves from thoughtcrime and the infantilising big state. The more Islamic, the more likely to implode: all modernisers were secularists.

  46. “I don’t think it’s that our armies are physically incapable of winning; it’s that we, as a civilisation, no longer seem to have the will to win.”

    No, its just that our leaders want us to lose. e.g. Merkel opening the door to immigration on such as scale that German men between the ages of 20-34 will be a minority in Germany in just three years time.

  47. “Cue the NARM (Not A Real Muslim)”

    A string of convictions for petty offences has now become one of the cues for this since Nice.

    I think everyone can relax now that you don’t have to be a radicalised ISIS supporter to go around psychopathically slaughtering your fellow citizens. You can now do it with fairly mainstream Muslim attitudes towards ‘immodesty’.

    Looking forwards to the feminist reaction to this attack. Let me know if anyone finds one.

  48. we’re heading for a full scale war between some sort of Islamic federation/empire/caliphate/whatever and Everybody Else.

    I can’t see that happening because Islam is riven with division – not just sunni vs shia, but also numerous sects (not to mention national rivalries). Many muslims hate certain other muslims more than they hate the infidel. So a unified Islam is unlikely – which is not to say that we shouldn’t prepare for it, to some extent.

    And seeing a potential external Islamic threat tends to distract from the actual internal threat posed by Islamic communities in the West. The danger is not an external military threat but creeping Islamic colonisation and demographic takeover coupled with a low-level terroristic war intended to undermine the resolve of the West.

    The way forward on this is to start making muslims feel unwelcome here by closing mosques associated in any way with terrorism, submitting muslims to more surveillance, closing Islamic faith schools etc, while also offering generous resettlement grants to those muslim families who are prepared to emigrate and renounce their UK citizenship.

  49. Bloke in Costa Rica

    In the end it may come down to LeMay’s dictum: “you’ve got to kill people, and when you’ve killed enough they stop fighting.” Of course in this case, “enough” might be the same as “all of them”. I’m so fucking sick of Islam that that doesn’t bother me as much as perhaps it should.

  50. @Ljh

    This is why, ever since Al-Ghazali in the 11th Century declared that science and enquiry were false constructions limiting Allah’s power, Islamic societies have persecuted innovation

    I have a Bangladeshi friend who is a full-blown islamist. Genuinely wants shariah in the UK and everybody in Britain to (voluntarily) convert to Islam. And not just the UK but the whole world. It would be fair to describe many of his opinions as “socially conservative”.

    Nevertheless he detests terrorist nutters (sets back the cause, dunnit, people aren’t going to convert to his beautiful religion if they associate it with ax murders and suicide bombers), detests salafists and wahhabism (he might want an islamic state, but he doesn’t want that type of islamic state) and has a particularly vehement dislike of al-Ghazali. Which surprises most of his friends, who generally venerate al-Ghazali as the greatest Islamic philosopher. My friend reckoned that Muslim progress has basically been going backwards since his time and that his pivotal role in the history of the faith actually set it on a retrograde path.

  51. “Catholic Christianity mind, not that Eastern rubbish which had it for a thousand years or so.” That “eastern rubbish” was catholic – it just wasn’t Roman Catholic.

  52. No real need to worry about house to house fighting if you are really serious.
    Just use your WOMD.- Poison gas. Germ warfare, nuclear warfare etc.
    Even become ‘racist’.
    Still the way things are shaping up the Chinese will tip the balance. There is a lot of them too. And not worried about micro aggression either.

  53. Bloke in Costa Rica

    MyBurningEars: when there’s sharia all over the world, is your pious friend going to waive the jizya for atheists like me? Because if not then there’s nothing ‘voluntary’ about it, and if so then it’s not real shariah. We need to stop saying to Moslems “I’d die before I let myself become a second-class citizen” and start saying, “you will die before I become a second-class citizen.”

  54. The thing that will save the West is that Islam is making itself odious to Hindu India and secular/Buddhist China. They have the numbers to swamp Islam. If that happens then the blood sacrifice religion of Islam will go the way of Quetzalcoatl.

  55. @Mohave Greenie
    Perhaps this is the case in India already. A Gujarati friend remarked once to me that her parents told her that she can marry anyone she likes as long as they are not 1) Muslim or 2) Black.
    No idea about China, but they have their own demographic problems to deal with.

  56. Much as I despise SJW it is correct that all this military speculation is a waste of time.

    We won’t be taking on any Grand Islamic Coalition or anybody else unless we first :

    1–Smash the Grand Leftist Coalition already over here and on the evil job including all the SJWs like SJW and then;

    2-Turn our attention to a major-league RoP sort-out across the West.

    Purge and Purge now.

  57. “As I said also, I’m predicting that we’re heading for a full scale war between some sort of Islamic federation/empire/caliphate/whatever and Everybody Else.”

    This is absolutely correct. I am glad to see more people realising the serous crisis that we are heading for. It is unavoidable at this stage.

    Those arguing that we only have to keep Islam out of Europe have several problems. 1. Islam is already here. 2. Any measures to control its spread or limit the ability of more muslims to come here are extraordinrily vulnerable to the racist argument, and will eventually be dismantled. We simply hate ourselves too much to make this work

    The way forward does not (sadly) involve the re-taking of Constantinople. Interested is correct that this would require too meany deaths from our soldiers and we do not have the manpower or resolve.

    What we do have (for now) is technological superiority. This will disappear quickly as Saudia arabia and others buying American tech and developing modern armies shows. Soon they will have nuclear weapons as well. We have a limited time frame available during which we can severely damage the Islamic world and make our civilisation safe. The only way to do this is to use weapons of mass destruction to destroy centres of Islamic power, population and belief. In short we need to start dropping nuclear bombs on the Middle East very soon, or we will be overwhelmed, destroyed, and enslaved as every other culture that used to inhabit the geographical area currently inhabited by Islam has experienced.

    When we do this then obviously we will be attacked by our own Musilm populations in Europe. It will be a difficult fight but one we can still win (for now).

  58. @ SJW
    Yeah. Because someone persuaded Asquith’s cabinet that they could win with only two-thirds of the force needed.
    But you are right – if we want to seize Istanbul/Constantinople we have to throw as much force at it as we should need to capture St Petersburg, more than enough to capture Paris or Berlin or Rome.
    Trying to capture Istanbul or Baghdad or Jerusalem or Moscow is just silly – destroying them is easy but evil.

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