I’m getting very tired of this shit

What is salient is not important. What is important is not salient. The media turns us away from the issues that will determine the course of our lives, and towards topics of brain-melting irrelevance.

This, on current trends, will be the hottest year ever measured. The previous record was set in 2015; the one before in 2014. Fifteen of the 16 warmest years have occurred in the 21st century. Each of the past 14 months has beaten the global monthly temperature record. But you can still hear people repeating the old claim, first proposed by fossil fuel lobbyists, that global warming stopped in 1998.

Cue the standard Monbiot piece on Arrrrrgh! We’re All Gonna Boil! And I’m afraid this shit is getting very tedious.

No, sit within the standard IPCC style work on this. Not because it’s right or wrong but because they say they think it’s right. Thus they should be happy to accept the implications of what they say is right.

Roughly speaking, in the current projections, RCP 8.5 is a disaster, RCP 6 isn’t entirely attractive, 4.5 would be an inconvenience and 2.6 we’d not really note. And everyone, but everyone, keeps predicting what will happen if 8.5 does. And yet we know, absolutely, without any shadow of doubt, that 8.5 simply isn’t going to happen. With what we’ve already done to energy generation it is simply not going to turn out that way. Something between 4.5 and 6 looks likely.

As Matt Ridley is fond of pointing out, 8.5 requires that we not only burn more coal than we used to a decade back, but that we get a greater portion of our energy needs from coal. In 2070.

Now, I may not think that solar is going to power everything, nor that the methods of subsidy we’ve used to roll it out are very good nor efficient. But seriously, what sort of cretin looks at renewables today and argues that coal will make a roaring great big comeback in 55 years sodding time?

The truth is we’ve already done the hard work to beat the worst of those projections. And yet we continue to get the screams based on the one outcome that we absolutely know isn’t going to happen.

Sigh.

Grips my shit it does.

15 thoughts on “I’m getting very tired of this shit”

  1. I can easily see a resurgence of coal. Eventually taxpayers will discover the true scale of the green energy fraud and either vote out of existence anyone who advocates for it, or simply sabotage the projects. Then we’ll be right back to building reliable, cheap coal plants.

  2. I’m with Mr Black: once the masses begin to understand how they’ve been ripped off in the Great Global Warming Swindle , climate ‘scientists’ may consider themselves lucky if they don’t become part of the fuel mix themselves.

  3. Well we’re all going to have a ringside seat in this one – we appear to be entering a period of low solar activity over the next few decades so we will be able to see exactly what effect that has. My bet is a lowering of global temperatures back to levels of those of about 20-30 years ago, maybe not for long, but back to those levels at the lowest point. Then a slow climb back on the long term warming trend out of the Little Ice Age of the 17th century. I also think the UK could experience some very cold winters, far colder than we’ve been used to if the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation moves back into a cold phase, it having been in a warm one for the last 15-20 years.

  4. Jim,

    we appear to be entering a period of low solar activity over the next few decades so we will be able to see exactly what effect that has

    Citation, please?
    Seriously, I would like to know where you got that from. With the solar magnetic activity cycle usually being 11 years, who is and how are they predicting unusual activity over the next 2 or 3 cycles?

  5. All a pack of Green–ie Red lies.

    Cut the subsidies and go for rational power.

    You know–the stuff that works.

    And they can shove Gaz and Lecky and Smart meters right up their green moldy arseholes.

  6. The sun spot number peak trend is down over the last 3 cycles(22/23/24) so its reasonable to assume that may continue into cycle 25 at least which would take us through to post 2030 at the very minimum, and low sun spot number cycles tend to be longer than very active ones, so you could be talking 12+ years per cycle for the next two cycles, which could push us closer to 2035. If cycle 26 is lower still you’re talking 2050 before a rise in solar activity.

    Plus there is the

  7. Dear S Evil @ August 3, 2016 at 12:38 pm

    You only inquired about who was doing the predictions, not how good they were. Hindsight is 20:20 vision.

    Does make you wonder about the 97% of scientists predicting sea-levels, temperatures, rainfall and hurricanes on 30 June 2100, though.

    DP

  8. Tim,

    The problem is that the measurement is wrong. Here is what is happening (by the IPCC’s own data):

    1) the temperature reported is an average;
    2) at the top, temperatures are not getting significantly higher;
    3) at the bottom, temperatures are getting higher, i.e. summers are not hotter, but winters are less cold;
    4) as a result, the *average* temperature is increasing.

    None of this is catastrophic anyway (even if you believe the measurements—which are dodgy) because high temperatures are not increasing.

    FFS.

    DK

  9. @DK: that would explain a lot to me – we are constantly told that month X in the UK was the ‘hottest eva!’ by the breathless BBC and Met Office, yet as a farmer out in the winds and weathers I don’t notice it actually being hotter. Particularly in the summer, which have over the last decade actually been rather chilly IMO, very few really hot days at all, constant cloudy days and rain (the last 10 summers have definitely been wetter than average). So one assumes there is a flattening of the temperature range – constant/slightly falling max temps, a larger rise in min temps, thus a rising average.

    Personally in the UK I would put the responsibility for this on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation – it is currently in a warm phase which tends to bring more low pressure systems over the UK, which in turn brings greater cloud cover, which results in less extremes of weather particularly in the winter, when in order to get very cold weather you need a large blocking high pressure to be sat on the UK. Thus you get milder winters, and damper cooler summers (which is what we’ve had for the last 10-15 years). When the AMO was in a cold phase in the 60s and 70s this encouraged high pressures systems to dominate the UK climate, resulting in far more extremes of weather – hot dry summers and cold winters, and more snow (caused when a cold air mass and warm air mass collide in winter).

    Do you have any links to analysis detailing the rise in average temp being down to higher minimum temps than rising overall?

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