I don’t really believe this

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll.

Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at just 2%.

Lord knows Trump’s not terribly appealing. But given the whole press and establishment thing just how shitty a candidate is Hillary to be in this position?

36 thoughts on “I don’t really believe this”

  1. Trump has been moderating his position of late. A month ago the idea of him meeting the President of Mexico sounded like the build-up to a bad punchline. Then it actually happened and the world didn’t end; in fact Trump himself came across as quite presidential. Meanwhile Clinton was nowhere to be seen.

    But there are still two months to go. The polls will continue to fluctuate until the election.

  2. Both candidates’ characters show clearly in their faces. That isn’t good for Trump, but it’s terrible for Clinton.

  3. I reckon Clinton will wriggle out of the debates, there’s too much likelihood of some medical malfunction that would hole her candidacy below the waterline. Quite how she’ll manufacture the scenario to allow it I’m not sure, I suspect some artificially media induced ‘outrage’ at something Trump says or has said in the past at some point, and refuses to apologise for, so Clinton can say ‘Well I won’t debate such prejudice’ or suchlike.

  4. Incredibly shitty. So shitty that, if she had any honor, she should have dropped out already.

    Either she’s a crook or she’s incompetent – depends on whether you believe she deliberately did these things or was to unaware of what was going on around her as other people did them in her name.

  5. Agamemnon – or a psychopath – she knew perfectly well but was unable to compute that it was a crime as it was her doing it not one of the little people, and therefore it was necessary.

    Rather like Blair, and quite possibly Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot.

    I bet she’s never lost a minute’s sleep over any of this.

  6. “surely Trump would eat her alive if she did that”

    She’s got the entire MSM onside creating their own reality for her already, look how little about her health issues is in the MSM, its only the internet based outlets that cover it. So creating a media storm about Trump and something he says and hanging her refusal to debate on that is entirely within her ability.

  7. Sociopathic tendencies even?
    The stories I have heard over the years about her time as first lady, stories that were told during her husband’s time in office and soon after – don’t exactly inspire confidence.
    If anything her actions and words in recent years have backed up some of those stories and made the others at least believeable.

    I’m no fan of either candidate. Just the rest of us are going to be left with an ‘oh crap’ moment after the election. The rest of the world that is.
    Looks like time to start working on my end of the world list.

  8. If Trump were to win, rationally it ought to trigger some introspection about the quality of Hillary as a candidate and the popularity of left-wing politics with voters.

    I mean, obviously that would never happen – the stupidity of the voters, the mendacity of the media and the danger of the situation would be screeched about before the progressives would consider that any of their views might be wrong.

    Still, though

  9. “If Trump were to win, rationally it ought to trigger some introspection about the quality of Hillary as a candidate and the popularity of left-wing politics with voters.”

    If Trump wins(and I think he’s got every chance), then it will trigger a reaction that will make the Remain response to Brexit seem like a vicars tea party. I think the Left have wound themselves up into such a tight ball of self righteousness that if they are beaten by Trump they will not take it well. Because they are ‘the good ones’ and Trump and his supporters are therefore de facto evil, any response will be considered appropriate. It could get very nasty.

  10. We have to remember we are looking at a sample size of 1,001 in a nation of 320 million. The only reason I even care about current polls is the 15% threshold for the debates. Knowing that I will be stuck with President Clump no matter what, the 7% for Johnson is what stands out.

  11. My observation is that if the huge majority of the media, “celebrities” and the chattering classes are behind one option and the polls put the alternatives roughly equal then the other option is most likely in reality.

    Take Brexit and Scottish Independence. People will tell pollsters they are undecided because of the vitriol they are afraid of if they declare (even in confidence) for the unfashionable choice.

    If Clinton isn’t 10 points ahead in the polls then she’s lost.

  12. Hillary mus surely be the second worst candidate every to win through from the primaries. How lucky for her she’s up against the worst.

  13. We’re having a little foretaste of the handwringing the left media will do if trump wins. The BBC doing endless stories about how Brexit leave voters didn’t really understand the issues when they voted to leave. And don’t they regret it yet? And how it destroyed families…because if only they had voted to remain we would be living in peace and harmony and integrating ISIS suicide bombers into mainstream British life.

  14. The polls showed Trump in the lead. The polling companies said that they were going to change their methods. Mirabile dictu, the new polls showed Hellary in the lead.

    And now it may be a suitable time for a second bash of changing their methods, wouldn’t you say?

  15. Saw a large poll (74000 across all states from memory) on Instapundit.
    If voters we given a simple choice Trump/Clinton then Clinton wins.
    However if Gary Johnson and the Green Lady were included then it’s neck and neck.
    As far as I know those last two are actually on the ballot.

  16. Pat,

    Johnson is on the ballot in all 50 states. The last time I checked Stein is on in 44 states. There are other fringe candidates like Darrell Castle(Constitution Party) who receive virtually no attention.

    While the fringiest of fringe candidates may affect races in some small states the chances of those effects mattering nationally are minuscule compared to that of a Johnson victory. I put the chances of a Johnson victory at one in a million so just factoring in Johnson, Stein, and Clump is acceptable.

  17. Hillary is as shitty as a shitty stick that’s been recently shat on. But she’s still not as shitty as Rapey Bill; unfortunately they come as a pair.

    I have not the slightest regard for Trump but I notice that he managed a trip to Mexico without causing a diplomatic incident, which seals it for me.

    I don’t even care if Trump is a racist. Barry O’failure was the prez who was meant to deliver the yanks from their racist past. Instead he has fanned the flames of a race war.

  18. This is the MSM manipulating the news.

    When Trump was behind, he was behind.

    When Trump was level he was behind.

    Now Trump is ahead and he is, it’s neck and neck.

    It’s the same with Hillary and her poor health, she was unable to stop coughing at two press conferences yesterday but you will not see it on the BBC. She increasingly looks like she has the dementia face of an old lady.

    I suspect it’s the Parkinson’s drugs which she cannot come off.


  19. Leaders who actually made a difference? Some who were great orators for sure but actually changed things? especially these days. Mostly tinkering around the edges. Leaders are mostly hamstrung by their own party unless they start shooting them.

    And yes you can make leaders who made a difference but we have hundreds of countries and thousands of leaders but you generally need to span centuries to get a decent list of influential leaders.

    So I am really not that concerned about the prospect of a Trump victory or a Clinton one.

  20. Andrew – more worrying is the president is commander in chief of the armed forces.
    Can order an invasion. Cannot start a war, though that’s not an issue. America isn’t inclined to declare war on anyone.
    They just invade.
    Which does not require approval from one of their other governments. The president gives an order, the pentagon work the problem and the troops get moved.

  21. Does the stuff about her health have legs?
    What would happen if she pulled out due to poor health?
    If the Dems could substitute someone, surely now would be the time for them to find a vaguely tolerable human being, who would probably sweep to victory/

  22. It’s worth remembering that US POTUS elections are not won by the highest percentage of overall popular vote. Rather it’s which candidate wins enough electoral college votes. So this poll and the ensuing debate above is for all practical purposes meaningless. Fascinating to observe but still meaningless.

  23. Piddle- Donald’s been behind nationally all the way. Between 10 and 4%. I’d say it’s more media sexing it up as a close race because that attracts the eyeballs and the advertising bait ball. The two marmite candidates means undecideds and 3rd parties so yeah it could still be a landslide for either. But still Trump to come from behind.

  24. Just come back from 7 weeks traveling around meeting American family members an the one thing that stands out is how unhappy they are.Most just don’t understand how they got to this point and many seem to be opting out of voting, I cruelly found it rather funny.

  25. David – true.
    Whichever takes the states with the electoral college votes in sufficient numbers to meet requirements….

    Weird system – but when set up perhaps they didn’t want popular votes.

  26. So Much For Subtlety

    Hallowed Be – “I’d say it’s more media sexing it up as a close race because that attracts the eyeballs and the advertising bait ball. ”

    The media has been so firmly stuck sticking their tongue up the Clintons’ posterior there is no way that they are trying to sex things up. We don’t know what is going on with the polls but if the media could hunt Trump with dogs they would have by now.

    Personally I don’t think Trump will be allowed to win. What form that takes I don’t know. But so far the media has tried to incite someone to murder him. With some success.

  27. Actually UK and other countries which base their parliamentary system also don’t have total popular votes for their legislative heads. In fact it’s number of seats won which determines ruling party(IRS) and then their leaders. Anyone know what Philipino system is BTW?

  28. I believe the Filipino system is most votes overall wins and no need for a majority. They also vote for Vice President separately so no single ticket for both. Then you get such japes as when VP Gloria what’s-her-name gets Estrada impeached so she can take over.

  29. Agammamon

    “she’s a crook or she’s incompetent”

    Your spell checker has accidentally swapped in an ‘or’ when you meant ‘and’.

  30. Bloke in North Dorset

    I thought West Wing explained the electoral college system quite well and made sense of the seemingly random campaigning schedules in the final weeks.

  31. Hallowed Be,

    Yeah. My guess is the media are finding dodgy polling companies or getting results just to get this sort of thing.

    Hilary is going to have the biggest win for 30 years.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *