It really shouldn’t be like this, should it?

To put it another way, a narrow Trump win would not count as a major polling foul-up if the election were held today: It would be within a reasonable range of disagreement among pollsters. A clear Trump win — or for that matter, a Clinton landslide — would be more of a problem for the polls.

As I’ve said before. If you think objectively about Trump the candidate then Hillary really must be a shitty one given she hasn’t put him away yet.

63 thoughts on “It really shouldn’t be like this, should it?”

  1. As we’ve seen with the Tory victory last year and Brexit, when the pollsters have said it will be a close-run thing the side that the media backed have lost by quite some way.

    In other words, if the entire US media and chattering classes have come out in favour of Hillary and she’s still only holding level, it’s unlikely she’s the one who is going to romp home with a surprise win in November.

  2. Trump’s polling numbers are amazing given that:

    1) He’s been on the end of unrelenting attacks from various sources including the media, the political establishment, big business, foreign leaders, the Pope and even his own party… for over a year. Normal politicians run away and hide the first time they’re called RACISTSEXISTHITLER. Trump’s faced down billions of dollars worth of hostile PR and looks stronger than ever.

    2) This is *after* the pollsters revised their methodology to give Hillary a boost.

    Popular enthusiasm doesn’t necessarily translate to success at the ballot box, but it’s a good leading indicator.

    Trump draws huge crowds everywhere he goes. Hillary can’t even fill a high school gym with Democratic Party toadies.

    I would not be surprised at all if Trump wins handily.

  3. You are usually a sensible fellow Tim but your attitude to Trump is being spoken out your backside.

    Killery is the fucking useless candidate.

    Trump had every GOP turd in existence against him and he beat the fucking lot. To the degree that Cruz–who legions of supposedly non-leftist commentators thought could see off Killery–should have done his last few speeches unshaven wearing a vest, old pants and his slippers , so finished is the useless shite.

    Killery had to cheat a vile Marxist twat like Sanders (of the Sewage Farm) to get herself on the scum ticket. Every piece of lying leftist filth on Earth is shilling for her with all their might, even in media that no American is ever likely to read. Probably the Afghanistan Opium Growers Journal has a piece in about what a wicked racist Trump is. Yet despite all the vile Clinton Bitch isn’t winning and isn’t going to by any legit means.

  4. I wonder if the polls in the US have the same in-built left-wing bias that the ones here have? I’m not implying the polling companies have engineered this – it’s simply the phenomenon where a small percentage of conservative pollsters don’t reveal their voting intentions to the pollster.

    It was worth 3-4% of the polls at the GE and the EU referendum.

  5. Some pollster asked voters the reason(s) *why* they were voting for each candidate (published last week on, I think, FT website).
    “She’s NOT TRUMP” and “he’s NOT HILLARY” came a storming top in the two categories with policies, personality (of favoured candidate) and everything else just also-rans.

  6. The Inimitable Steve

    Rob – they announced (after Trump’s post-convention numbers showed him in the lead) that they’d now be revising their methodology for… reasons. That put Hillary immediately back in the lead.

    Seems like transparent fuckery to me, but I’m not a cephalopodiatrist.

    Further, I bet there’s a Shy Tory effect. Everything’s bigger in America, right?

    Trump supporters have been spat on, beaten up, had their property vandalised, and been hounded at work. Some folks will undoubtedly have seen this and decided to keep schtum.

    But possibly the biggest unknown is turnout. The pollsters seem to reckon it’ll be like 2012. What if it’s not though? There’s lots of anecdotal evidence to suggest (a) Trump’s energising a lot of previously apathetic R supporters or traditional D voters into choosing him; (b) Hillary’s support is softer than a rotten peach.

    It could well result in a Trumpslide unless Hillary can convince people to turn out in the sort of numbers Obama inspired.

  7. Look at BLM. The left doesn’t care about the assassination of police officers or the skyrocketing of murder rates in places like Chicago and Baltimore, just as long as the black vote comes out like it did for Obama. (All funded by George Soros)

    i.e.They’re fucking desperate and Shrillary is done.

  8. TIS: Obummer being Obummer has fucked that one. She doesn’t have his–now long-since spent–“charisma”.

    Unless they are medical junkies( missing their “House” fix and compensating by trying to guess what is wrong with her) nobody much is crossing the street to hear from the Walking Wheelchair Woman.

  9. The hardcore Dems I am in contact with are all being inspired by “not-Donald”.

    The ones I am in vague contact with are voting for Hillary because they think she’s a good candidate. Which tells you a lot about them, frankly.

  10. @Rob

    There are two ways of doing polls. There’s the accurate, expensive way – this involves face-to-face interviews with a carefully selected stratified sample of the population, and is what you’d choose if you were launching a new car or a new soap powder and wanted to know how many to make. The drawback is that it takes weeks or months, which is no use if the question you’re trying to answer is: our guy gave a TV interview last night, are his numbers up or down?

    So for the latter type of question (and the news reporters), there are quick and dirty polls – usually by phone or Internet. The polling organisations know these are biased (at least, they do since this cock-up), so they apply they’re own in-house arcane ‘adjustments’ to get to what they judge to be the ‘right’ result. Often they get it right – sometimes they don’t.

  11. Flubber–The Great Black Hope for Change was Obummers USP.

    That is now done. Plenty of change–all of it bad for everybody except the Enemy Class elites.

    The main victims of black crims are ordinary non-crim blacks just trying to get on with their lives. BLM bullshit and black areas being looted and terrorised by BLM agitators (the white victims were in the wrong place/time-no white areas have been or will be attacked) isn’t going to turnout a big black vote. Esp not for a woman who was calling blacks “Superpreditors” just 20 years ago.

  12. Events, dear boy, events.

    Close to the poll:
    1. NRA nutter in school massacre: Dem win.
    2. Islamic nutter in mall massacre: Trump win.

  13. @BiF
    “Islamic nutter in mall massacre”: we’ve had at least two of these recently but strangely everyone seems to be unsure what the killer’s motivation actually was.

  14. BiF: You have missed the massive rage in America against the scum of the left. The Obummer bounce-back if you like.

    Gun nut shoot up won’t cut it and another “I-can’t-believe-he’s-Islamic” caper will only pour petrol on the fire.

    The issues are too deep for any kind of superficial move such as you are talking of.

  15. Abacab>

    Never heard of Dylan Roof? What about Tim McVeigh*?

    *Not a shooter, obviously. And he actually walked out on the NRA for being too lily-livered, so…

    But really, it’s irrelevant. No-one accuses NRA members of deliberately advocating for mass shootings (or single ones). They’re accused of creating conditions that allow shootings (both deliberate and accidental) to happen ridiculously often.

    The simple fact is that most US gun owners are not members of the NRA and despise every bit of reckless negligence the NRA advocates. The NRA are _bad_ gun owners, irresponsible ones. They’re the ones driving gun control because they can’t be trusted not to treat dangerous weapons as toys. Claims to be libertarian are just as nonsensical as when the same claims are made by sovereign citizen idiots: they’re just a thinly veiled excuse to pursue self-interest.

  16. Tim Newman>

    Given that you don’t appear to be a drooling idiot incapable of things like tying your own shoelaces, how on earth can you say something so utterly, pig-headedly, plain, straight-up stupid?

    All you’ve done is tell us about your own prejudices, and demonstrated your ability to reinforce them in the absence of any evidence.

  17. Tim Newman>

    Haha. But seriously, go check the figures. Something like 1% of US gun owners, in or out of cities, sign up the the NRA’s brand of idiocy. Most shooting ranges will not admit anyone known to be an NRA member. They’re the stupid, gung-ho, reckless type who cause the ‘accidental’ shootings.

  18. Piss off Dave.

    The NRA are not liked by many US gun owners because of their gutless kiss-the states-arse attitude to allowing political shite to put their tinpot tyranny on gun owners.

    CM has rotted what might once have passed for your brains in to a hollow shell. Sort of like a Kinder Surprise but with absolutely no surprise and the added stench of arrogant stupidity and evil.

  19. I’m convinced that Clinton is going to win big. Because what’s going to win for her is the undecided camp. Trump is going to blow it in the debates. He hasn’t been seriously challenged by anyone yet on his views and his facts.

  20. BiW: Has Wiltshire been located to another planet-and/or dimension?

    As TIS has already pointed out Trump has already weathered a billion dollars of bad publicity unscathed.

    And now the fabulous coughing skills of the Walking Wounded leftist bitch are going to do for him?

  21. Secksy>

    “The NRA are not liked by many US gun owners”

    I think we’ve established by now that the rare things you and I agree on must be facts. There’s another of them.

    “CM has rotted what might once have passed for your brains ”

    What is ‘CM’? I assume not even you object to the metric system in quite those terms.

  22. Mr Ecks,

    “As TIS has already pointed out Trump has already weathered a billion dollars of bad publicity unscathed.”

    And so far won the Republican nomination. Mostly (like McCain) by winning states that have open primaries that anyone can vote in, including Democrats who might want to put the worst candidate in.

    I’m not even ruling out that media companies are leaning on pollsters to produce tighter polls in order to keep people reading.

    I think Clinton would make a better president than the alternative (who thought I’d say that?), but that’s not the point here. It’s that her policies and her positions are more like what people generally vote for. Trump is like Farage – he has a big fan club, but a lot of people really don’t like him.

  23. There were a lot of claims about the Washington mall shooter being Hispanic, thigh I’m not sure that will hurt Trump either way.
    What’s very amusing is the vitriol and bias in the Canadian media, one said trump would make smog worse in Canada because he supports coal power stations.

  24. Its odd that when a Muslim nutter shoot loads of people there aren’t many calls for tighter gun laws, when a white nutter (or kid) shoots loads of people the Left virtually cream themselves with self-righteous indignation demanding tougher gun ownership laws………………

  25. Given that you don’t appear to be a drooling idiot incapable of things like tying your own shoelaces, how on earth can you say something so utterly, pig-headedly, plain, straight-up stupid?

    Well, that refuted him, good and proper.

  26. I have an acquaintance who just got his gun license in a democratic state in the US. He can get anything except full automatics pretty much. No open carry though.

    What was interesting about the process was that he had to attend a short course on gun ownership, which was run by the NRA itself. I think the NRA is as much a business these days as a lobby/hobby group.

  27. Bloke in Wiltshire said:
    [Trump] “so far won the Republican nomination. Mostly (like McCain) by winning states that have open primaries that anyone can vote in, including Democrats who might want to put the worst candidate in.”

    That was an interesting theory, but I just looked, and I don’t think it’s true.

    Even in the early campaign, when there were strong rivals, if you take out the open primaries the results were still good for Trump:

    Trump (non-open wins):
    New Hampshire, Nevada, Georgia, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Hawaii, Florida, North Carolina,

    Cruz (non-open wins):
    Iowa, Alaska, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming.

    Kasich (non-open wins):
    Ohio

    Rubio’s big win was Minnesota, which is an open caucus. Cruz’s big win was Texas, which is an open primary.

    So at that point, ignoring open primaries, it was 8 states each to Trump and Cruz, but I think Trump’s were significantly bigger.

    By the next round most of the candidates had dropped out, leaving just Trump, Cruz and Kasich, then Trump won New York in a closed primary (plus closed North Dakota), whereas Cruz only managed Utah, Colorado and Wyoming, which are small. Cruz’s big-state late win was Wisconsin, which was an open primary.

    After that, Trump had it in the bag anyway, but it looks like he’d done pretty well even without open primaries, especially having won Florida and New York on closed primaries. If anything it was Cruz who did well out of the opens, with Texas and Wisconsin.

  28. The polls, eratic as they are have been moving Trump’s way for a couple of months now.
    Plus as mentioned above Trump supporters are routinely vilified and occasionally attacked as Hilary supporters are not, hence there are likely more Trump supporters keeping schtum.
    The debates will be interesting. I bet it’ll turn out like the Farage/Clegg debates- the media will call it either for Hilary or a draw. The audience will disagree.
    Trump can think on his feet and speak human even if crude sometimes. Hillary can’t.

  29. Says Dave: “Most shooting ranges will not admit anyone known to be an NRA member.”

    Well that’s a complete load of horseshit right there. Fair and square in nicht einmal falsch territory. There are gun clubs that require you to be an NRA member. Gun clubs that require you not to be a member appear to be something Dave just pulled out of his arse.

  30. “The debates will be interesting. I bet it’ll turn out like the Farage/Clegg debates- the media will call it either for Hilary or a draw. The audience will disagree.”

    The entire MSM will be watching like cats for the tiniest ‘gaffe’ imaginable, which they will then trumpet 24×7 for the next two weeks, much to the bewilderment of most actual people.

  31. Do they have Islamic NRA nutters?

    How about a black police Islamic NRA nutter?

    Yes and yes. We have a very diverse country. There are even partially black kkk members. They just need to look white enough. We even have crony capitalists masquerading as populists.

    To return to the original topic Trump would never have had a chance in better times. These are not better times. Trump is popular because most Americans aren’t doing better. Bombs are frequently exploding in our cities and the job-creators aren’t creating good paying jobs. Electing another Democrat to do more of the same is a tough sell. Remember we voted for change 8 years ago and have tried to wait patiently.

  32. Ecks wins today’s debate.

    As, hopefully, will Trump.

    Dave is a putz. “Most shooting ranges will not admit anyone known to be an NRA member.” is a bigger lie even than Stalin could bring himself to utter.

  33. Scott Adams tweeted:

    Our next president will either be an offensive, rich, divisive bigot with a bad haircut or Donald Trump.

  34. Dave

    I don’t really care if I am polite or not, but Dave, you are so full of sh!t we could turn you into a pinata and fertilize half of Norfolk. Name one shooting range that prohibits NRA members.

    “They’re accused of creating conditions that allow shootings (both deliberate and accidental) to happen ridiculously often.”

    By leftists. Who lie. All the time.

    “They’re the ones driving gun control because they can’t be trusted not to treat dangerous weapons as toys.”

    This is crap. The NRA used to be a country-club, go-along to get-along sort of Republican-lite organisation. They were not effective. They had a turn in the 70s, purged the liberals and went full bore, so to speak, for the Second Amendment. They have been effective at protecting gun rights ever since. As can be seen by the fact that America has the NRA and people can buy guns. We do not and we cannot. If the NRA’s irresponsibility was driving gun laws, British people would be allowed to by AK-47s. They can’t.

    Dave – “Given that you don’t appear to be a drooling idiot incapable of things like tying your own shoelaces, how on earth can you say something so utterly, pig-headedly, plain, straight-up stupid? All you’ve done is tell us about your own prejudices, and demonstrated your ability to reinforce them in the absence of any evidence.”

    Who thinks that Dave is in fact Floppy under another name? Go on, tell us you are a fat accountant who ran from South Africa when Diversity and Love won the election.

    TimN is not wrong. As American Dad once said, guns don’t kill people. Dangerous minorities kill people. In New York White people are about a third of the population. They are responsible for about 5% of homicides. There is no reason why most of the readers on this blog should not be allowed to have an AR-15. They would not want one in all likelihood but if they had one, the chances of them shooting anyone but themselves is close enough to zero not to count. The chances of them using in home defence is not zero.

    We need an NRA in Britain.

  35. Yet another reason to vote for Trump:

    Trump is tapping a high-profile climate change skeptic to lead administration transition efforts for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

    Myron Ebell, director of energy and environment policy at the conservative think tank Competitive Enterprise Institute, is heading Trump’s EPA transition preparation, E&E Daily reported Monday.

    Ebell is an outspoken, long-time skeptic of the scientific consensus that human activity is dramatically changing the climate. He often refers to warnings about global warming as climate “alarmism,” and is a vocal critic of President Obama’s climate change regulations.

    At this stage he could molest the corpse of a young boy in Madison Square Garden and I would still support him.

  36. Some wag over on Facebook has apparently suggested that Killery–should her bid to promote leftist tyranny fail–is joining the Spice Girls.

    As “Hospice”.

  37. Scott Adams has come out of this election with a lot of credibility. I liked this tweet:

    “Our next president will either be an offensive, rich, divisive, bigot with a bad haircut or Donald Trump.”

    But he could have worked “screeching” and “menopausal” in there somewhere.

  38. Bloke in Wales – “We’ve got an NRA in Britain: http://www.nra.org.uk/ They hold shooting competitions at Bisley and occasionally other ranges.”

    We have an organisation of that name. But I don’t think they have much else in common. Still, the UK NRA fully supports gun safety and responsible legislation. So I am sure Dave will be able to explain to us that is why British people can buy so many more guns than Americans can. Given the lack of the US NRA’s irresponsibility in the UK.

  39. The UK NRA are a waste of time on legislative issues, and dropped a bollock massively in 88 and 96/97. They’ve got better recently, but they’re to a certain degree responsible for the shafting law-abiding shooters got after Hungerford and Dunblane.

  40. @Dave

    Actually, Trump was the choice of about a third of the Republican electorate. The other two-thirds were not-Trump. Unfortunately the way the rules work, the candidate that gets a plurality gets most of the delegates. Ironically this was designed to ward off insurgent candidates and reward the establishment candidate.

  41. SMFS

    “Menopausal” ? Really? The woman’s 68.

    I don’t like Hillary, but shit like that is what gives the “bigots won’t vote for a woman” camp the sort of ammunition that keeps us from discussing her politics.

  42. John Square in Piraeus

    @chester

    Agreed, but people do keep on about Trump’s hair. Also- Hillary’s gender seems to be a plank of her campaign.

  43. joining the Spice Girls.

    As “Hospice”.

    Nah, she’ll want to be the leader of the band.

    The Spite Girls

  44. Where I live, approx 50% of blokes aged 25-60 have a shotgun, and I’d say 10% of those have rifle tickets, from .177 rimfire to bigger centrefire stuff. Not been a shooting (human) round here for decades. Plenty of clays, pigeon, partridge, pheasant, deer and wild bore, though.

    Firearm ownership is all about the people who own the firearms.

    Also, others have said it, Dave, but you’re talking egregious shit about the NRA not being allowed on US ranges. It’s almost like you just make stuff up to seem knowledgeable. Bearing in mind you’re just another anonymous cunt on the internet I don’t quite see the kick you get out of it. But it takes all sorts.

  45. Chester Draws – “I don’t like Hillary, but shit like that is what gives the “bigots won’t vote for a woman” camp the sort of ammunition that keeps us from discussing her politics.”

    To quote some of the lunatics on the internet – Step out of the Matrix dude. The Right does not win by conceding the Left’s framing of the debate. We all live in the Leftist matrix which defines what is acceptable or not. We shouldn’t. Why shouldn’t I mention it? She does. She is running on the “vote for me, I have a vagina” platform.

    If you can give me a sound non-Leftist reason for not talking about it, I won’t. But I don’t let the Guardian define what is socially acceptable and you shouldn’t either. This is a woman no one should vote for.

  46. @ SMFS
    My right-of-centre matrix has *lies* being unacceptable. Just because *you* live in a Leftist matrix, that doesn’t mean that Chester Draws and I do too.

  47. john77 – “My right-of-centre matrix has *lies* being unacceptable. Just because *you* live in a Leftist matrix, that doesn’t mean that Chester Draws and I do too.”

    What lies would these be? You need to wake up.

  48. “This is a woman no one should vote for.”

    No-one should vote for Clinton even if it becomes a tranny to increase the GBLT vote.

    Though the fact that Americans are being offered a choice between Crazy Crack-Smoking Cat Lady and Used Car Salesman for President shows just how bad the situation is there. At least Trump might do something useful, and won’t start WWIII.

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