And so here is Joan Smith

To tell us that actually, you know, maybe the rape rate is rising?

I’m just not convinced that we can go on explaining the entire rise in rape reports by saying that victims are more likely to make a complaint. The possibility of an actual increase is starting to be discussed among senior police officers, prosecutors and organisations that work with victims, and there are a number of factors that might explain it. After all, it isn’t just victims who read angry articles by campaigners about how easy it is to get away with rape.

It’s an interesting thought isn’t it? Because it would mean, if true, that absolutely everything we’ve been doing about rape, all those consent classes and so on, has been wrong. As in achieving what we didn’t want, a rise in the number of rapes.

I look forward to the mea culpas on this point.

If you think victims are treated more sympathetically by the media these days, I suggest you read reports of rape trials in the Daily Mail. The paper regularly splashes on stories about men who have been found not guilty, going into prurient detail about the accuser’s “past” – it recently described one young woman as having “an extraordinary sexual appetite” – and failing to acknowledge that false accusations are rare.

Actually, the false accusation rate seems to be about the same as a successful conviction rate.

34 thoughts on “And so here is Joan Smith”

  1. “The possibility of an actual increase is starting to be discussed among senior police officers, prosecutors and organisations that work with victims”

    What, people who have a pretty big self interest in that being the case? Get them to produce some actual evidence….

  2. I asked in the comments whether a rise could be down to immigration. Obviously my comment was then removed. Which means that a website which proclaims facts are sacred, has decided which facts are not allowed to be true and that no attempt can be made to consider them so.

  3. White men–esp older white men–are the target -for-persecution group the cops and their marxian femmi-scum masters want. In the same way a sow wants slops.

    Migrants–well the cop nose has to be rubbed in their crimes until “no action –not in the public interest” is no longer possible for Mr Bluebottle and his CM CPS pals.
    If rape is up –the cause is more rapists. And where might they be coming from? Not Smurfland I think.

    Of the 20000 poor Syrian refugees taken straight from the camps ( and thus RoP because any Christian refugee going to said camps would have been murdered) that Camoron said would be specially picked, 1600 have arrived and 4 of them are now in jail for sexually assaulting a little girl . More are set to arrive. If the rate of assaults remains constant and the cops even try to do their job then the full 20 thou will see 50 odd child molesters imported.

    This Joan Smith creature can go to Hell. Trying to stick native Britons for antics of imports whose crimes her scummy leftist gang are trying to declare taboo to even talk about?

  4. “Because it would mean, if true, that absolutely everything we’ve been doing about rape, all those consent classes and so on, has been wrong. As in achieving what we didn’t want, a rise in the number of rapes.”

    Lower the definition of an incident, get more incidents. It ain’t rocket science.

  5. They’re victims if the defendant is convicted.

    I appreciate the point but I’m perfectly happy that there are a significant number of cases where the woman was, in fact, raped but, for whatever reason, the wrong person is accused.

    I have no idea what that number would be statistically, especially compared to the true conviction / false accusation rates.

  6. “Because it would mean, if true, that absolutely everything we’ve been doing about rape, all those consent classes and so on, has been wrong. As in achieving what we didn’t want, a rise in the number of rapes.”

    No it wouldn’t without proving causality rather than correlation. A huge number of other issues are at play. It might mean they simply were not sufficient to cope with the larger changes occurring.

  7. @Tim, no it doesn’t actually. You make this mistake an awful lot.

    And forget the whole rape thing (personally I doubt the rate is rising meaningfully, SMFS will be along backing the feminists because it’s rapefugees obviously, but it’s all beside the point).

    Because you are stuck with the problem you have in all social sciences. You are comparing before and after a society-wide intervention with no control group. The non-existent non-intervention group might have seen an even larger rise. Or a drop. Or no change. No one knows.

    What you don’t get to do is say the intervention is counterproductive just because you see an increase in undesirable outcomes. Just as you don’t get to say that speed cameras are an effective intervention just because you see a reduction in collisions at speed camera sites (example picked to match the preconceptions of commenters here, and the fact that there there are good reasons to believe the intervention is not responsible for the changes that are observed).

    Come back when you’ve got a control group. If that’s possible.

  8. James G (and Mr X),

    > I asked in the comments whether a rise could be down to immigration.

    According to a certain judge from New Zealand, it is indeed the case.

  9. So Much For Subtlety

    Actually, the false accusation rate seems to be about the same as a successful conviction rate.

    That is to say, the number of *known* false accusations is about the same as the number of *known* rapes.

    Which suggests half are false.

  10. So Much For Subtlety

    Bloke in Germany – “personally I doubt the rate is rising meaningfully, SMFS will be along backing the feminists because it’s rapefugees obviously, but it’s all beside the point”

    Ecks beat me to it. It is not besides the point. We want to know if the rate is rising. We want to know what we can do about it even more. If an intervention works, we want to know. Certainly more Muslims means more rape. A lot more rape. But other factors have been driving the rape rate down – porn according to TW. DNA testing according to me. Rape is a lot less fun if the police have a DNA data base.

    However it is probably all noise. There is no clear and bright line between rape and normal sex, there is just a continuum. As it happens young women are more likely to get drunk, to use drugs, to hook up, to live disordered lives. It must follow that they are more likely to be raped. They are also more likely not to care and to write it off as bad sex or a misunderstanding and to not care. If a rape victim doesn’t care, is it rape?

    If we care a lot, we should pressure women not to do foolish things. If we are happy to let women make all the bad choices they want, we won’t do a damn thing. Which seems to be our present position. In the meantime we will try to sort out those that are true from those that aren’t.

  11. Surely a considerable factor in any rise in the number of rapes (as actual numerical amount) is likely to be the rising population? There are lots more people in the country than there were, even if all the male immigrants over the last 15 years were exactly as likely as a male UK native to commit rape then the number of rapes would indeed be rising? Chuck in that perhaps the immigrants might be more likely to commit rape (many of them coming from, how shall we put it, more ‘rapey’ parts of the world) then rape numbers would definitely be rising. Its a pure factor of rising population.

  12. “Rape” is now fashionable, if you want to be a female SJW it is almost mandatory to claim you have been raped sometime in the past. Of course you never bother reporting it to the police or providing any evidence, but it is mandatory to believe the claims even if they are clearly bollocks.

    In the hierarchy of victimhood rape trumps muslim, which trumps black, which trumps gay.

    All public claims of rape are false unless reported to the police. I suspect the rate of false allegations is very high, driven by idiot women believing they can sleep around and finding after, that they feel awful and the only explanation which does not make her feel like a slut is that it was waaaaaaaappppppppeeeee.

  13. Bloke in Germany in Colorado

    @smfs, the outcome (rape) and intervention (soshul awarenisses) are not relevant to how you assess the evidence. you can be looking at car crashes with speed cameras, heart attacks with margarine, or cocaine consumption versus city bonuses. when the outcome is politically sensitive people are less likely to think critically about the evidence than to instantly see their prejudices confirmed – either way.

    this is basically epidemiology, where results right wingers don’t like are routinely (and often correctly) dismissed.

  14. I once knew a policewoman who told me that there was about one false accusation of rape a week in a certain Essex town. A girl (often drunk) would turn up and accuse some bloke of rape. Her story wouldn’t pass the sniff test. The female DC then had a chat with the girl, explaining the consequences of making a false accusation, wasting police time, etc, etc. Did she still want to proceed? That was usually enough for the allegation to be withdrawn. No record was kept of it as a rape allegation. Which suggests to me that the number of false rape allegations was unintentionally kept artificially low — at least then (and there).

  15. So Much For Subtlety

    Bloke in Germany in Colorado – “the outcome (rape) and intervention (soshul awarenisses) are not relevant to how you assess the evidence.”

    Why do I get the feeling that you are blathering for the sake of blathering? Do you have a point or are you merely looking for a fight? Hard to tell but I have to say I don’t much care.

    “this is basically epidemiology, where results right wingers don’t like are routinely (and often correctly) dismissed.”

    To blame this on the Right is absurd. It was not the Right that lied through their teeth about the risk of heterosexual HIV. It is not the Right that is lying about passive smoking. Or the dangers of cholesterol. It is not the Right that is lying about alcohol consumption. It is not the Right that is lying even about rape – insisting it is about power and that all women are at risk.

    The Left has been involved in one long retreat from reality for a generation. But you can hardly acknowledge that without admitting your own tenuous connection to the real world.

  16. BiG

    Come back when you’ve got a control group.

    But what you are doing there is raising the bar to rule out a conclusion you find unpalatable.

    You are requiring a standard of evidence that you hold can never be met: …you are stuck with the problem you have in all social sciences. You are comparing before and after a society-wide intervention with no control group.

    The scientific method may be the gold standard of knowledge; but most of the judgements that policy makers have to make are at best informed by some empirical data. The test then is whether there are strong and reasonable grounds for believing that x is the case. This, after all, is what we mean in everyday life when we talk about ‘knowing’ something. In those terms, what Tim W broadly says above strikes me as a reasonable and strongly grounded conclusion (though, of course, it might well be false).

  17. Jim,
    It’s not rising population as a whole – that’s been happening as we’ve been living longer, but 95 year olds aren’t committing rape. You have to examine the rise in population of people who fit the profile: male, obviously; but also usually single, aged up to about 45. (Testosterone levels decline from about 40 onwards.) Curiously, child molesters skew a fair bit older than rapists of adults.

    Guess which other group also skews young, single, and male.

  18. @Andrew M: the rise in UK population isn’t down to people living longer, if it wasn’t for immigration the population would be virtually static . So one has to suspect that the recent immigrant population must contain significantly more men aged 20-45 than the UK population as a whole (there not being many 45+ yo immigrants, or indeed young children). So the rise in immigration HAS to partly account for any rise in the number of rapes, regardless of the relative rape propensities of immigrants vs natives, there’s just more potential perpetrators of the right age and gender out there. If one imported 1m men aged 20-45 that were identical in every way to 1m native men of the host nation aged 20-45 then there would be more rapes. Simple maths.

  19. If you think victims are treated more sympathetically by the media these days, I suggest you read reports of rape trials in the Daily Mail. The paper regularly splashes on stories about men who have been found not guilty, going into prurient detail about the accuser’s “past”

    Victims… and men who have been found not guilty.

    Non sequitur.

    If the men haven’t committed rape, the women accusing them aren’t victims.

    In fact, isn’t making a false allegation a crime? Therefore the men are the victims in those cases. So slagging off the lying accuser doesn’t sound harsh. Said accuser ought to be looking at the same sentence and sex offenders register they tried to get the innocent bloke on.

  20. Andrew M said: “According to a certain judge from New Zealand, it is indeed the case.”

    I think we are entering a golden age of frank speech. Post Brexit-vote, with the unstumpable Donald Trump reveling in misdirecting the media and Democrat campaign, we’ve even had an NHS hospital admitting they have a problem with maternity tourists.

    If Dame Lowell Goddard’s remarks are true then I think it’s media spin trying to discredit her, and May by extension. I wouldn’t be surprised if the public generally agreed with Goddard, given the existence of muslim child grooming gangs.

  21. “Ched Evans: Footballer found not guilty of hotel rape”

    So…..will the army of feminazis who threatened to burn down football clubs who dared even think about employing Ched now be howling in protest at football clubs who won’t employ him?

  22. @Theophrastus – agreed. Indeed the fact that SJWs can claim this as a victory for SJWing while Tim can point out that it shows that SJW is a bunch of crap is exactly the problem. We can’t draw any reliable conclusion from a small change in one thing over a short period of time, yet such conclusions are routinely drawn to suit the preconceptions of the person drawing the conclusion.

    SMFS – if you think I am blaming anything on anyone (least of all right wingers) you need your comprehension testing.

  23. Bloke in North Dorset

    As long as rape covers everything from the woman waking up in the morning with a hangover and thinking shit, what I did I do last night and I don’t remember consenting to sex with him, to the woman held at knife-point and being beaten within an inch of her life we’re never going to understand what’s going on and so take appropriate measures.

    If its the latter we have a serious problem that’s going to need a lot more heavy policing (I doubt it is), if its the former then its just an education problem. However it suits the feminist cause to not allow degrees of rape so that they can imply its all the latter and shout down anyone of tries to imply its the former. Meanwhile, most women are confused and scared shitless that it just might be the latter, and modify their behaviour unnecessarily and have a reduced quality of life.

    As for immigrants and the RoP there’s an article in this weeks Economist about sex education in asylum camps which is worth a read to understand the clashes of culture:

    Most of the refugees who receive the classes seem to welcome them. Many have never had any formal sex education: of the 12 men in the class at Broechem, most of whom hail from African or Middle Eastern countries, only one, an Albanian refugee, said he received any form of sex education at school. Abdullah Sameer, a 21-year-old refugee from Baghdad who lives in the Broechem centre, calls the courses “perfect”. “Everybody should respect women,” he says—though he considers himself among the few enlightened men in his country. Most people, he says, “need some classes”.

  24. To blame this on the Right is absurd.

    Not really. Have you listened to what the idiots that we are saddled with as politicians have been saying recently?

    It may be wrong and it certainly isn’t going to help anybody, but it is hardly “absurd”.

  25. BiG

    Indeed the fact that SJWs can claim this as a victory for SJWing while Tim can point out that it shows that SJW is a bunch of crap is exactly the problem.

    No. It shows it is question of what is reasonable, given the available evidence.

  26. Andrew C,

    Twitter is stuffed full of libellous tweets about Evans, the patriarchy etc. Particularly over the “sexual history” thing.

    And that’s what the case was defeated by. Little Miss Spitroast had done exactly the same thing a couple of days later. Shagged a bloke, couldn’t remember anything the next day.

    A friend of mine was accused of abusing a boy. Months of trouble. And the accusation was literally physically impossible. He’d have needed 12′ long arms. There is no way it should have ever gone to trial and it collapsed as soon as it opened with the judge throwing it out. The CPS and the police are a joke now.

  27. I can understand not allowing fishing expeditions, but it looks like in the Evans case that the judge correctly allowed that in this situation pattern of behaviour was relevant to the case and so was open to the defence as a strategy. Seems a reasonable balance to me as you can’t exclude it totally as a defence, don’t cry wolf is a fundamental lesson we teach kids for a good reason

  28. Bloke n North Dorset

    “The CPS and the police are a joke now.”

    Maybe, but they are being rational. Whenever they refuse to take a sexual offences case to court, no matter how absurd, they get pilloried by the press, twatterati and every SJW who’s never had to think about anything critically in their life.

    Much easier to send it to court and let a judge or jury decide the merits and then they can give a “wasn’t my fault guv” shrug and move on in safe in their careers.

  29. Glad to see oiky Ched Evans has been cleared of rape. God only knows what some ‘traumatised’ bint might be inclined to dredge up from my very distant past. I’d now be prosecuted for my behaviour as an Oxford student.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *