Bit mean isn’t it?

Nigel Farage almost cost the Leave side victory in the EU referendum, the leader of the ‘Out’ campaign claimed yesterday.
Dominic Cummings, campaign director of Vote Leave, said that without the Ukip leader’s intervention, the Brexit side would have won by 60 per cent to 40.

There only was a vote because Nigel drove Ukip’s tanks onto the Tory lawn.

There are all sorts of uncomplimentary things you an say about Our Nige and I’d even agree with some of them. But you’ve got to acknowledge the achievement as well. It all simply would not have happened without him.

37 thoughts on “Bit mean isn’t it?”

  1. Yes.

    I mean, I think he’d have been better off staying out of it. He’s not a person with broad support. But a bit of credit might have been nice.

    And anyone who trusts “I want to leave but I don’t want to vote for that tit Farage” from a focus group needs to understand the downsides of focus groups. People show off, big time. You’re paying someone to sit down for an hour and talk. They have no downsides to self-promoting.

  2. Sounds like virtue signalling to me.
    Whilst I doubt Nigel could have won the referendum on his own, he surely brought 4 million voters to the cause, and very possibly more. Without those votes remain would have won.

  3. It may not be credible for most of us to belittle Farage’ contribution to Brexit, but Dominic Cummings is one person who can do that; right or wrong.

  4. I think the murder of Jo Cox (and no, I’m not shouting “conspiracy” here) had more to do with the narrow margin of victory.

    At the time it happened, all the momentum of the campaign was with Leave; the polls were showing a very small Leave majority (and with what we now know as the “shy Leaver” component hiding, so probably 8-10% higher than polling suggested), and Dave and that twat Osborne were running round like headless chickens trying out ever more blood-curdling predictions of what a Leave vote would entail. After the murder, the whole referendum campaign was suspended for nearly a week (to the massive benefit of Remain, who could attempt to regroup), and even when campaigning resumed it was very muted.

  5. While I think UKIP is a rabble, I have huge respect for Farage, because he ensured there would be a referendum. Did Farage’s poster put some people off voting leave? Perhaps, but I think it was more horses for courses. The murder of St Jo probably had more effect.

    Cummings is clever but known to be vindictive, and his judgement is often questionable, though he and Elliott won the campaign. Without them, the UK might well still be in the EU.

    Could it have been 60:40 for leave? Possibly. But we can never know. And does it matter? We won!

  6. Without Boris and Gove (even if they didn’t believe in Leave and were campaigning for reasons of personal ambition) they may not have pulled it off. Farage, however, did a great deal of the heavy lifting – not least the necessary dirty bits. Without Farage I doubt you would have attracted the sort of people that tend not to vote in general elections and who arguably made the difference.

  7. Rob,

    It was Cameron that got me off the fence. I nearly bottled it, but when he said we could renegotiate some more, and Juncker said it wasn’t going to happen, that was the moment I decided for certain to vote for Leave. Nothing he said could be trusted (and I should have remembered that from before). He wasn’t the “safe pair of hands”. Staying was just as risky as leaving.

    I think I need to archive all this Remainiac nonsense. Something to show them in 20 years time, like all those people who said leaving the ERM would be a disaster and that we should have joined the Euro.

  8. To me Farage is a national hero, damn near single handedly responsible for getting us our referendum.
    He did that by pushing relentlessly for at least a decade, you can see him on youtube holding town hall meetings explaining why we need to be out of the EU, he looks a lot younger there.

    He’s taken his cause being hijacked very well, probably because the mainstream politicians got us over the line, and that shows he’s an even bigger man – prepared to pass up personal grandeur for the cause.

    Farage being badmouthed is on a par with the remain campaign claiming that the leave campaign won with lies, utterly unbelievable.

  9. “Dominic Cummings, campaign director of Vote Leave, said that without the Ukip leader’s intervention, the Brexit side would have won by 60 per cent to 40.”

    An utterly ludicrous claim that I assume no-one is taking seriously. Leave would never have won just on the basis of £350m a week and all that malarky. It was the worries about immigration that UKIP raised that got Leave over the line.

  10. “I think I need to archive all this Remainiac nonsense.”

    Someone should. Today, The Times leads with Revealed: The £66bn cost of hard Brexit.

    Someone has leaked papers suggesting that the Treasury could lose up to £66 billion a year in tax revenues under a “hard Brexit”, with the economy shrinking by 9.5 per cent if Britain leaves the single market and has to rely on World Trade Organisation rules for trading with the continent.

    It’s Project Fear all over again, with remainiacs in the Treasury (?) pushing the same figures. It’s not even news: it’s yesterday’s scare story.

    Dominic Cummings would do better countering this crap than settling old scores with Farage.

  11. There is a large element in the Conservative Party that will never credit anyone outside it with doing anything good in politics.
    Farage (and Hannan) worked at this for over twenty years. Without them no referendum, no Brexit.

    I think Cummings is wrong about the net effect of Farage’s participation as well. Probably among the tiny percentage of the elite on the Tory side who were considering voting for Brexit, Cumming’s figures are correct. Among the wider population, no chance.

    I am currently enjoying winding up my academic colleagues and most of my (genteel) family and friends by describing Farage as the most successful British politician since Margaret Thatcher. The look of distaste that crosses their face before they are forced to agree is thoroughly refreshing.

  12. I think UKIP would have done a lot better without Nigel over the last few years look at the number of people Robert Kilroy Silk, Richard North etc who have left because of them.
    Of course if he were good at working with talented people and not afraid of them then things would be a lot better.
    People don’t vote for UKIP because they love it, they vote because they dislike the other parties even more.

  13. “Nigel Farage almost cost the Leave side victory in the EU referendum, the leader of the ‘Out’ campaign claimed yesterday.” tells one a great deal more about Cummings than it does about Farage.

  14. Cummings shouldn’t be too cocky about his group’s success… I was under the impression that they were selected by the Electoral Commission as the “official out” campaign because they were the weakest and worst organised of those available.

  15. The Inimitable Steve

    Nah, bollocks.

    And re: UKIP. Nigel Farage was the reason I voted UKIP in the Euro elections. I don’t know any of the others but I trust Nige.

  16. I am inclined to agree with Pogo. Whoever was picked by the Electoral Commission was bound to act as a lightning rod for public support. Cummings is being blinded by hindsight.

    Cummings’ appearance at the Commons Treasury committee in April was a car crash of arrogance and idiocy. The team they put together for the debates was good though.

  17. >Today, The Times leads with Revealed: The £66bn cost of hard Brexit. Someone has leaked papers suggesting that the Treasury could lose up to £66 billion a year in tax revenues under a “hard Brexit”

    I love the ‘leaked’ bit. Like the Treasury wanted to keep this information private, and someone acting against their wishes bravely managed to get this information out. When the reality is that it’s just progaganda that the Treasury is desperate to get into the papers.

  18. So Much For Subtlety

    Gareth Too – “To me Farage is a national hero, damn near single handedly responsible for getting us our referendum.”

    Pretty much, yeah. He should be wearing ermine.

  19. “Someone has leaked papers suggesting that the Treasury could lose up to £66 billion a year in tax revenues under a “hard Brexit”, with the economy shrinking by 9.5 per cent if Britain leaves the single market and has to rely on World Trade Organisation rules for trading with the continent.”

    So what do we learn from that? There are some idiots at the treasury. UK exports of goods to the EU are only 5% of GDP and a lot of that is either oil, gas or aircraft parts (no duty), so it isn’t going to change. At worst a 2% change in GDP if all other exports go, but those Nissan cars suyddenly look better value than German cars with a 10% duty.

  20. What a load of bollocks. The poster aside, Nigel Farage was magnificent throughout the entire referendum campaign, and everything the official Leave campaign used was Nigel’s rhetoric and words. Even the much-maligned poster was popular in and around Greater Manchester. The social media campaign paid for by Aaron Banks and the PR campaign he also paid for made more difference than anything Vote Leave did, with Banks’ “facts don’t work” line probably the main difference between the campaigns. Aaron Banks, Nigel Farage and Leave.EU won the referendum; had it not been for Vote Leave and if Johnson and Gove had stayed out of the way, it probably would have been 60-40.

    It’s disappointing that Cummings thinks he made any sort of positive difference.

  21. when does he become Lord Farage?

    “A prophet is not without honour except in his own country”.
    But Farage’s time will come when Brexit is seen to be an unambiguous success.

  22. Nige got the referendum, but the longer the campaign went on the more Leave was destroying the chances of Leave winning. Even at 3am on 24 June watching the results coming in I was certain Stay had won. Has Paddy eaten his hat yet?

  23. @So Much For Subtlety, October 11, 2016 at 11:49 am
    Gareth Too – “To me Farage is a national hero, damn near single handedly responsible for getting us our referendum.”

    Pretty much, yeah. He should be wearing ermine.

    +1

    Without Nigel Farage and UKIP there would not have been a referendum.

    Re: Farage & Trump

    Farage’s coaching working wonders. Trump slaughtered Hellary in the second debate.

  24. The Leave campaign actually tried to sack Cummings a few times, but each time Gove prevented them by threatening to walk if they did.

    (I also suspect Cummings was the cause of Gove’s disastrous miscalculations after the referendum.)

  25. I think that a lot of people who voted leave assumed that Farage was in charge anyway.

    To be honest, if you showed his photo to the public, 999 out of 1,000 people would not recognise him. That increases to 1,000 if his mother doesn’t take part.

  26. Post-war our Big Four political figures are Attlee, Thatcher, Blair, and Farage. Remarkable really.

    P.S. I still think Blair should be hanged.

  27. Post-war our Big Four political figures are Attlee, Thatcher, Blair, and Farage. Remarkable really.

    What..!?

    P.S. I still think Blair should be hanged.

    OK, now I understand.

  28. @BiCR

    You wouldn’t be alive if your Mum never heard of….

    Hmm, I don’t think I should complete that sentence.

    P

  29. As a UKIP councillor and Vote Leave Lieutenant, Cummings is talking crap.

    The referendum was won on two levels.

    Nigel did the job in the media, by pointing out the problems with immigration and crucially saying “Australian style points system” in every interview. People like that concept, it rings true and isn’t racist.

    The Vote Leave grassroots did the job on the streets, by sheer weight of numbers. We detoxified the media message via presence and approachability. In February we couldn’t get anyone to talk to us, but it came around week on week and by June we were being grabbed and waved at and generally had our hind legs talked off. Despite Vote Leave Head Office’s fucking awful leaflets and terrible logistics.

  30. Nigel won by pushing Cameroon to say that he would hold a referendum.
    When it came to the referendum, the remaniacs lost by telling utterly implausible lies. No-one actually produced a brilliant winning stroke, hitting Gary Sobers or Stuart Broad (depending on your age) for six – Osborne knocked down his own stumps. So Cummings is talking nonsense.
    As a guy who voted remain, I am thoroughly embarassed by the stuff the remaniacs are now trotting out lest I be associated with it.

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