This is just absolutely fascinating

The number of rapes recorded by police has doubled in the past five years while the percentage of allegations resulting in conviction has fallen, official figures indicate.

For it’s an indication that the earlier system just wasn’t as bad as was made out.

No one at all thinks that the number of rapes is rising. but we’re seeing a rise in the number reported. And that falling conviction rate means that the “quality” (to mean here, likelihood of successful prosecution) or those extra cases being reported is lower than those reported previously.

No, it doesn’t mean at all that the previous system was absolutely correct at the margin. That all cases which could be prosecuted were both reported and then brought to a successful conclusion. But it does mean that the system was closer to that position than many used to claim. The falling conviction rate as against the greater reporting really does mean that the newer cases are more marginal.

31 thoughts on “This is just absolutely fascinating”

  1. It is all part of CM propaganda.

    Just as the bloom of horrid homophobic hate crimes turn out to be tweets rather than violent acts. And the “increase” in “offensive” tweets is more about non-offensive tweets being reclassified and whined about to coppers by deceitful SJW scum.

  2. It would be interesting if there were some false rape accusation statistics to put alongside these numbers.

    Could there be a rise in spurious rape claims and their prosecution to accompany the increase in reported alleged rapes?

  3. “No one at all thinks that the number of rapes is rising”

    I’m sure there are plenty of people who would be prepared to claim that the number is rising, in fact. Throw in a few unsubstantiated claims about ‘rape culture’ and the ‘internet’ and you’ve got yourself a CIF column.

  4. @Suet

    “But if only women ran the internet, than rape would never happen!”

    That’s the last bit needed for a CiF trifecta

  5. Rape is a very difficult thing to prosecute because in many cases the issue is consent, which will usually be one person’s word against another’s – hard to remove all reasonable doubt.

    While some claims will be false (some maliciously so, some in a greyer area of drink-clouded memory) I’d be astonished if that came anywhere near the percentage of allegations that don’t result in prosecution.

    A rape is still a rape regardless of the quality of evidence. Tragically for those people who are raped in a manner which leaves insufficient evidence for prosecution, justice isn’t going to get done. Mindlessly aiming at higher prosecution rates isn’t going to help – if charges are pressed without sufficient evidence, what good does it do to a victim to see their rapist get off in court?

    The fact that more marginal allegations are getting made is arguably a good thing, on balance, even if it reduces the prosecution rate overall (and inevitably will also include some false allegations). It’d be sad if a rape victim didn’t go to the police because she felt nothing would be done (e.g. if she thought there’s no way to prove it), particularly given that in some cases there might actually be enough evidence. But it wouldn’t be a surprise if people going to the police now who wouldn’t have gone before were disproportionately cases where the evidence wasn’t there for prosecution, since most people for whom the evidence was blatant would likely have gone under the old system anyway.

    I’m not as completely convinced as Timmy that we have conclusive proof that, at the margins, the quality of evidence is generally poorer (though it’s entirely logical, especially if victims think fairly rationally about the chances of prosecution or even just being believed at all before they report or not). For really conclusive proof, it would help to know which allegations would still have been made under the prior system and which ones were only made due to changes to the system (which there’s no way to know). There might be other reasons for the numerator to stay static while the denominator increases, for instance if resource constraints limit the number of actual prosecutions, or if there has been a rise in the standard of evidence required to secure a conviction (eg juries succumbing to the “CSI effect” and requiring more “scientific proof” to convict). I suspect that marginal allegations having, on average, weaker evidence is a part of it, but not sure if it’s the whole story.

  6. MBE: White Knighting.

    So fuck all males whose lives are all screwed up by false accusations? There are more lying females than there are rapist males. Why?

    Because the trouble that comes with a false public accusation massively outweighs the penalty of making an anonymous false accusation. The small number of women who end up in court for lying about rape is only a tiny fraction of those making accusations. Mostly she stays anonymous even if the police etc realise their is no truth to her claims. Assuming the police/CPS arseholes don’t decide to fit you up to boost their PC cred.

    http://annaraccoon.com/2016/10/09/governed-by-consent/

    The “pink sink” caper is especially sickening.

  7. So Much For Subtlety

    MyBurningEars – “It’d be sad if a rape victim didn’t go to the police because she felt nothing would be done (e.g. if she thought there’s no way to prove it)”

    Would it? It is pretty sad that more and more men are dragged through a painful and expensive legal process that smears them for life.

    There is a downside to false rape allegations. It is insane to encourage more.

  8. You’re putting it very tactfully, Tim. Some of us have been saying for years that the low number of successful prosecutions is obviously due to the fact there are so many false allegations made. (Not that all unsuccessful prosecutions are because the woman is lying, sometimes she isn’t, but the liars have wrecked things for her by sewing so much doubt about a woman’s word).

    Some of us also said for years that increasing the number of cases that go to court will only mean that men who are obviously innocent will have their lives made hell for years, if not for the rest of their life. And so it has proved.

    It’s got so bad now that many people now just automatically disbelieve rape accusations, and unless it involves an obvious thug dragging a woman into a dark alley, they’re no longer taken such claims seriously.

  9. SMFS

    Yes, if a crime victim of any kind feels it’s pointless to go to the police because they imagine nothing can be done, then it’s a sad state of affairs. It’s sad when burglary victims have given up on calling the police. It’s sad when rape victims have given up on going to the police.

    Your point about false allegations is a non sequitur. Yes, it’s also a terrible thing when false allegations get made against someone (particularly on the kind of charges where they can’t exactly “prove” their innocence in any definitive sense, but rather, are keeping their fingers crossed that the absence of proof of guilt is sufficient to stop them getting locked up for something they didn’t do). But that is no reason to be cheerful when a crime victim feels unable or unwilling to go to the police.

  10. ‘No one at all thinks that the number of rapes is rising.’

    I see daily reports of worshipers of Allah in Europe committing rape.

  11. “But that is no reason to be cheerful when a crime victim feels unable or unwilling to go to the police.”

    Agreed –IF she is a real victim of a crime. The Marxian feminist antics and induced panics of late are making more likely that lots of flakes, gold-digging psychos and personal score-settlers are filling the ranks of those stepping up to “J’Accuse”. Aided and abetted by scummy CM riddled police/CPS/home office gangs

  12. The Crime Survey for England & Wales* exists to solve this problem. It asks people “Have you been raped lately?” rather than relying on them reporting it.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmar2016

    The proportion of adults aged 16 to 59 who had been victims of sexual assaults in the last year (including attempted offences) had not significantly changed between the latest survey year (2.0%, equivalent to 645,000 victims) and the previous survey year (1.7%).

    From 1.7% to 2% is a 17% jump; since they describe it as “not significantly changed”, it must be within the survey’s margin of error.

    From an American website I learn that:

    51% of the sexual assault cases studied in the Women’s Safety Project survey were committed against young women between 16 and 21 years old

    that sounds plausible, and I assume the proportion is similar in the UK. Also:

    91% of the victims of rape and sexual assault are female and 9% are male

    Crunching the numbers, that means 13.3% of women aged 16-21 have been victims of sexual assault (or attempted sexual assault) in the past year. Bear that figure in mind next time you read claims about campus rape.

    Eight out of ten rapists are known to their victims. There was a time when women were warned about spending time with unsavoury men.

    (*formerly British Crime Survey, but presumably they no longer have crime north of the border)

  13. My irony meter must be off today.

    Are you endorsing or debunking the load of shite that is the British Crime survey?

    Cos obviously 13% of women are raped each and every year.

  14. Mr X,

    I’m searching in vain for the Crime Survey’s definition of sexual assault / attempted sexual assault. Whether that’s a shockingly high number does very much hinge on the definition used. As it stands, it sounds high but plausible.

  15. Here’s one of the questions from the crime survey:

    has anyone ever touched you in a sexual way (e.g. touching, grabbing, kissing or fondling), when you did not want it?

    They class this as “less serious”, but it’s still included in my 13% above. I can’t be arsed drilling further down into the data, but I’m not at all surprised that 13% of girls have experienced unwanted touching.

  16. So someone you don’t fancy tries it on by putting their arm around you and that gets classed as ‘sexual assault’. FFS.

    Even including things like that, the 13% figure is going to be a massive distortion, surveys like this have massive methodological problems.

  17. “So someone you don’t fancy tries it on by putting their arm around you and that gets classed as ‘sexual assault’. FFS.”

    Esp if the person is their husband/boyfriend.

    Boilerplate CM tactics to grotesquely inflate the sexual assault figures.

  18. Hells bells, I’ve been touched sexually when I did not want it. It’s never occurred to me that I might make a complaint to the police.

    Obviously sexual assaults can be a lot more serious – e.g., being pinned down while someone masturbates on you – but ‘being touched in a sexual way when you did not want it’ …. matches the definition in the statute. Trebles all round!

  19. The crime survey’s main advantage is that the questions don’t change (much), allowing us to observe trends over time.

    The questions on sexual assault are contentious. The ONS has a whole document about how some tweaking with the wording on the sexual assualt questions changed the overall rate from 1.6% to 2.9% [page 16].

    It’s all very well the ONS pontificating on how many angels can be assaulted on the head of a pin, but the media takes the headline figure and announces that 99% of all men are rapists.

  20. > So someone you don’t fancy tries it on by putting their arm around you and that gets classed as ‘sexual assault’. FFS.

    To be fair, someone touching you non-sexually when you don’t want it is classed as “common assault”.

  21. Has the definition of rape/sexual assault become too wide such that it exceeds a normal member of the publics view of it, so prosecution is not just having to prove guilt but that what they did was a crime that is worthy of the potential punishment, the both parties drunk and questions over ability to consent, the following morning regret cases being one area.
    Wasn’t it the case that one of the problems with capital punishment is that the nature of the sentence could make juries more lenient on reasonable doubt/require a higher degree of certainty

  22. SQ2: How many spouses have had their partner pester them for a legover when they didn’t really feel like it but obliged anyway.

    Is that now sexual assault?

    Don’t forget–under the new bullshit laws giving the state power over relationships–ie men–refusal/denial of affection can now be classed as a crime.

  23. @mr ecks
    I recall that one charity used that definition (agreeing even if you didn’t feel like )to claim some extremely high % of women had been victims of sexual abuse

  24. Ecks,

    My point was not that being touched by someone should be classed as common assault; merely that it is. So the legal definition of “assault” doesn’t match reasonable people’s idea of what it should be and the legal definition of “sexual assault” doesn’t match reasonable people’s idea of what it should be. The problem appears to be larger than just sexual assault’s definition.

    Of course, the police and CPS quite rightly won’t bother prosecuting someone for tugging at your sleeve. Someone could do a survey to find out how many people have technically been “victims” of common assault, compare that to the number of prosecutions, and DEMAND ANSWERS.

  25. Mr Ecks: “How many spouses have had their partner pester them for a legover when they didn’t really feel like it but obliged anyway.”

    I don’t know. How many? Did your partner actually oblige?

    ,

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