Calling Andrew Simms, Calling Andrew Simms

Time is fast running out to stop irreversible climate change, a group of global warming experts warns today. We have only 100 months to avoid disaster. Andrew Simms explains why we must act now – and where to begin

If you shout “fire” in a crowded theatre, when there is none, you understand that you might be arrested for irresponsible behaviour and breach of the peace. But from today, I smell smoke, I see flames and I think it is time to shout. I don’t want you to panic, but I do think it would be a good idea to form an orderly queue to leave the building.

Because in just 100 months’ time, if we are lucky, and based on a quite conservative estimate, we could reach a tipping point for the beginnings of runaway climate change. That said, among people working on global warming, there are countless models, scenarios, and different iterations of all those models and scenarios. So, let us be clear from the outset about exactly what we mean.

That was 1 August 2008.

So, err, what’s the disaster, where is it?

Or does the fact that The Guardian cancelled the series before Simms trousered 100 cheques mean the prediction is now inoperative?

27 thoughts on “Calling Andrew Simms, Calling Andrew Simms”

  1. Reading comprehension Tim, reading comprehension.

    He wrote “we could reach a tipping point”. Not “will”, but rather “Could”, which some people say, many experts agree, all reputable people think, the consensus supports, is a favoured weasel word of the left.

  2. He links to for supporting evidence. Unfortunately the domain is expired, presumably because the owners have moved into Arctic ice caves to escape from the unbearable heat we are currently suffering.

  3. The Inimitable Steve

    Did you see his article from 2 days ago, Tim?

    Apparently the problem with those poor-but-honest global warming moral entrepreneurs is that they’re just so gosh-darned truthful:

    On everything from climate change, to the EU and international cooperation needed for action, our reality is being shaped by people who tell tales with plot holes, continuity errors and no regard for factual grounding.

    “That kettle is manky!”, says pot.

    Those who care about these issues must learn to tell better tales.

    And never mind what that talking cricket on your shoulder says. You’ll be a Real Boy one day!

    Yet there’s a problem. The presentation of evidence, sober argument and the appeal to reason is deeply engrained in the culture of campaigning for progressive change.

    Srsly. This from the guy who wrote “WE HAVE 100 MONTHS TO AVOID DISASTER U GUISE!!!!! 🙁 :-(”

    But according to notorious didgeridoo-fondler Rolf Harris, some words have two meanings. So mebbe by “sober argument” he means “pants-shitting scare stories and adverts about kids being exploded” and “appeal to reason” means “point and scream CLIMATE DENIER!!!!1! at anybody who disagrees.”

    We will also have to find a better story to tell, in which people can discern a better future and answers to a host of social and economic problems. It will have to be a tale people can believe in and will want to read to the end.

    Nah, fuck off and go play with the polar bears. You told us they’d be extinct by now anyway, so you’ll just have to come up with a better story about why it’s actually climate change that’s eating your face off.

  4. The warm-mongers’ prediction that northern counties would be subjected to swarms* of people from the south has of course come true. Just not for the reason they thought.

    *Hate crime.

  5. Is there such a thing as the opposite of the Pulitzer prize, like the Golden Raspberry Awards for the Oscars?

  6. Not a fan of the global warming religion.
    I do wonder if they will pick a different day than the other religions to have as a holy day. I hear Monday isn’t busy.

  7. So when these people swarming into northern countries claim its to escape war, persecution or to find work they really are all lying and they are really escaping global warming?
    Even those fleeing persecution in France.

  8. When are we going to grab the lying troughing fucks by the scruff of the neck and ask them where the fuck is your damned evidence show us something, anything that is based in reality not your dopey made up statistics or climate models no if’s or maybe’s show us something we can see which offers 100%proof that your bullshit exists,if you can’t fuck off we have had enough.just saying like.

  9. So the ones in France are trying to escape low lying France with its shortage of land area and crowded land to… the UK.
    I would have thought offhand the escape route from global warming would run the other way. Heading into France from the UK.

  10. William Connolley is correct. The series is formally still going, as you can see if you click on his link to an article by Simms published on 23rd Nov. That piece has a discreet “Climate change: 100 months to save the world” written to the left of the headline. What they stopped doing was headlining each story with “xx months and counting”. I think the last one they did that for was this one dated 1st February 2011 , when the count stood at 70 months.

  11. Yes, Mr Simms believed, and my guess is still believes, the sky is falling. There have been chicken littles throughout history and will be in the future. Maybe one day he’ll actually be right but it hasn’t been in the last 100 months.

    While waiting to bake to death I could use something interesting to pass the time. Can anyone point to a good analysis of the political changes that followed in the wake of the 1348 plague? I’ve managed to pick up bits and piece but I like to have a full picture.

  12. The interesting thing is that in those 100 months the IPCC has debunked Simms’ nonsense. The current scientific consensus is now that what’s alarming isn’t credible, and what’s credible isn’t alarming.

    Simms, of course, has not changed his view to reflect the scientific consensus: he rejects it thoroughly, preferring what the IPCC called virtually genocidal policies of over-reaction.

  13. Simms is a piker.

    Monbiot now, he’s not a piker, today his story is about “The 13 impossible crises that humanity now faces”.

    13!! Not just one crummy, cheap-ass AGW, but 13 times as many.

    But no links, he and/or his moderators are pricks, kicking off even the mildest comments that suggest he’s an idiot. And I know he reads them all because he replies to so many. And I expect you’re here too, aren’t you Georgie?

  14. “The current scientific consensus”: oh do give over. Most scientists have never read anything about “Climate Science” except the same alarmist articles in the papers that the layman has read.

  15. Look at all the earthquakes in recent days. Quite clearly global warming is causing tectonic plates to expand causing increased stress along the fault lines.

    If Trump pulls out of the Paris Accord, his presidency will almost certainly be characterised by increasing earthquakes, including along the US west coast, although they voted for Hillary so it will serve them right.

  16. Liberal Yank
    You could start with Philip Zeigler’s classic, ‘The Black Death’. Postan’s ‘Medieval Economy’ has some material on the economic impact. The Wikipedia bibliography on the Black Death entry might be useful, too.

  17. Thank you Theo,

    Everything I came across yesterday before my post was very limited. I need more nuance and detail to make a correlation between societal changes thanks to the Great Plague and the civil rights movement after the Great Migration(delayed thanks to the Great Depression and WWII).

    At this point it’s more personal curiosity. I’m not going to bother going back and trying to find the race baiter that blamed black’s problems on being uppity and moving north.

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