The polls were wrong. And because we are obsessed with predicting opinions rather than listening to them, we didn’t see it coming. So, the world woke up believing that Republican candidate Donald Trump had a 15% chance of winning based on polling predictions – roughly the same chance of rolling a six if you have two dice. Despite those odds, the next US president will be Donald Trump.
A six? Two dice. So, 1/6 for a six on either. Two dice, 1/3 of getting a six. 33%, not 15%.
Now, if you want to say the chance of rolling six with two dice then…..5/36….13.9%
No wonder The Guardian had problems with polling.
Thanks to Eagle Eyed Spotter Peter Fletcher