Almost a decade later, the Queen might be tempted to lob another grenade at the economics fraternity: why did you get it wrong again about Brexit?
In fairness, the economics profession had its Cassandras in the run-up to the financial crisis and not all economists thought a vote to leave on 23 June meant instant Armageddon. Even so, it is a valid question. How can it be that the Bank of England, the Treasury, the IMF, the OECD, not to mention the vast majority of academic economists, all predicted so confidently and yet so wrongly that the UK economy would plunge straight into a stonking great recession after a Brexit vote?
On both occasions, economists have been guilty of groupthink. On both occasions they pretend to have forecasting powers that don’t really exist. As the economist Paul Ormerod points out, in the short term it is nigh-on impossible to sort out genuine information from noise.
But is everyone going to learn the right lesson from this?
If we cannot forecast what is about to happen then how in fuck can we plan the economy?
Well, quite, at this macro level we simply cannot, can we, because we simply do not know what is about to happen nor can we accurately model the effects of whatever we might do about it.
So much for the Curajus State then, eh?
And, of course, that kills off absolutely everyone further left who wants a properly planned economy, doesn’t it?