The Brexit forecast was in a different category. It was like the “dodgy dossier” of the intelligence community on Saddam’s weapons arsenal. It was experts distorted by politics, consciously or unconsciously saying what they or their paymasters wanted to hear. It was “sexed-up” science.
The reasons given by economists for their Brexit forecast are feeble. It did not take account of “inherent momentum”, of international factors or of government remedial action. That is surely inadequate. The true reason is that Project Fear, the Treasury-orchestrated attempt to frighten voters into the remain camp, consumed the political and intellectual establishment. It blighted the judgment of social scientists. It not only failed in its purpose of instilling fear, it appeared to validate a bogus reason for voting Brexit – that all experts are mendacious toffs.
As some of us were saying at the time. Policy based evidence making.