OK, true, he’s only of practice in political economy but he should know this stuff:
In that case my question is a simple one, and is ‘why should that happen?’ I can find no reason for this.
I can, for example, see no hint of new technology on the horizon to which only we have access as a result of Brexit.
There is also no hint of a significant upturn in demand for existing goods and services: a combination of new inflation and uncertainty, plus credit already being stretched, suggests there is relatively little mileage left in the current consumer led growth.
And nor is there much sign of investment. Nissan is hinting at reversing its decision to stay. Banks are definitely planning to move, at least in part. And in the face of demand uncertainty at home and abroad, plus real inflation and interest rate rise risks there is almost no incentive for business to invest. Falling tax rates, which result in tax based incentives becoming ever more worthless, do not change that. Nor will a supposed absence of regulation: any wise business knows we will still face as much regulation as at present, but it will now come bilaterally rather than multilaterally and so be much more onerous to deal with.
So where’s this structural change going to come from? Is it from being the dirty country of Europe? The EU will certainly adjust for that in regulations. Or from being a tax haven? There’s a new EU tax haven list due soon.
What is the effect of a decline in the exchange rate upon the domestic economy?
Yes, well done, it stimulates the domestic economy, through higher exports and greater import substitution.
apparently City employs an economics professor who does not know this.