The budget had just one message: there will be no general election in 2017
There is still no beginning to Spud’s talents. This was written 6 weeks ago:
What the white spaces say is that there will be no early election. The giveaways would have been much bigger if there were to be, and the pain on the self employed would have been deferred.
Next, note the growth downgrades: they don’t signal anything like enough confidence to justify going to the country as yet.
And so take it as read as a result that the decision is to wait until 2020. Then May thinks that post Brexit all will be well and she will be swept to victory.
I suspect that’s also how Gordon Brown felt in 2007, on balance, when he too proved shy of the electorate. And look what happened. He, of course, did not discuss recession in 2007. And Hammond did not discuss Brexit today. But the recession was the end for Brown as Brexit will be for May, I suspect. An election postponed is all too often one lost. Today, without anything being said, an election was postponed. And I can’t see it being won as a result.
City really did make such a wise choice, didn’t they?