UN population predictions

The world’s population is projected to
increase by slightly more than one billion people over the next 13 years, reaching 8.6 billion in 2030, and
to increase further to 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100


….as well as a slight increase in fertility in countries where women have fewer than two live births per lifetime.

Ah, no, so I don’t believe a word of it. There ain’t a single rich country above the replacement rate. And there’s nothing in any human history to suggest that any ever will be either. And we do know that poor places are getting richer at a very encouraging rate…..

27 thoughts on “UN population predictions”

  1. Yeah, Israel. They are the only developed country to promote pro-natalist policies. With considerable success.

    Wikipedia tells me that the Faroe Islands have a TFR of 2.6, but that must be a statistical blip. France scores 2.01, and any visit to that country will leave you in no doubt as to which segment of the population is doing the most breeding.

  2. I don’t think this is what Hans Rosling said.
    And I trust him more.

    Would be interesting to know if the slight rise in some European countries over the last decade or so was .. ahem .. imported.

  3. “poor places are getting richer at a very encouraging rate”: what, rich enough to afford plenty of abortions? Careful what you wish for, Tim.

  4. More risky is ultrasound and abortion are affordable. We all know why.

    A future with lower IQ populations breeding surplus men who if successful can marry more than one woman. A recipe for conflict.

    I see trouble ahead rather than wealth being used as we would expect.

  5. The UN assumes that every country with a below replacement fertility rate will see their fertility rate raise to the replacement level. No reason given. There is no evidence that I can see that suggests that this is a reasonable assumption. Even countries that have been actively trying to raise their fertilitly level have failed to get it back up to replacement level.

  6. This rise will take place almost exclusively in Africa. If you think the migrant problem is bad now, wait 15-20 years.

  7. The increase in fertility in the west is possible, if we assume it comes about by importing people still living a third world lifestyle and expecting others to pay for their kids. The UN have pretty much said the west will depend upon third world let’s to replace their diminishing populations.

  8. ….as well as a slight increase in fertility in countries where women have fewer than two live births per lifetime.

    Tim, there is nothing unreasonable about that. It’s not claiming to increase fertility up to “replacement rate”, simply a “slight increase from current”.

    And which is quite logical if you factor in the increased vibrancy % into those low fertility countries…

  9. The Inimitable Steve

    Rob – it’s only a problem to the extent we let it be one. Africans aren’t magically flying across the Med and paying themselves our money to do nothing.

    Magnus – yes, the UN wants us all dead.

    Re: fertility rates, Western governments have tried nothing and are all out of ideas.

    But there’s plenty of things we can do, particularly around housing affordability, getting rid of migrants, bursting the HE bubble.

  10. The Inimitable Steve

    Fundamentally, of course, immivasion is unsustainable. Adding huge swarms of people who drain the coffers of the public purse is just hastening the demise of the welfare state and the clean, low-crime, non-shithole societies which attracted them in the first place.

    Something like 50-75% of our Mohammedan guests are “economically inactive”. How are they going to feed themselves when their hosts are unable or unwilling to feed them?

    The answer is, they’re not gunna.

    Another thing the invasion of Europe is destroying is the fat, happy and complacent post-WW2 liberal-left egalitarian consensus. It’s dying a cruel death of a thousand cuts, bombs and rapes.

    Not that the true believers will ever repent – Owen Jones’ last words, as he tumbles off a high rise, will probably be “nothing to do with Islaaaaaaaaaaa-” – but the newer generations will look on this xenophilic madness as we do the divine right of kings or tulip mania.

  11. “Something like 50-75% of our Mohammedan guests are “economically inactive”. How are they going to feed themselves when their hosts are unable or unwilling to feed them?”

    Do you have reliable stats for this? I was arguing with someone about it the other day and they asked me for stats. Couldn’t find much beyond a couple of old newspaper articles.

  12. The Inimitable Steve

    Some stats here Tom:

    “35% of all Muslim women from 16 to 64 were in employment. By contrast, 69% of all British working-age women were in employment”



    “For example, compared with the UK average of 22% of the working age population being economically inactive, Somali, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Iranian immigrants are likely to be 81%, 56%, 55% and 48% economically inactive respectively[5].”


  13. 4 out of 5 Somalis economically inactive? So they aren’t even doing the jobs the locals won’t do?

  14. I don’t see figures for Palestine in the OECD data so I have question what we can learn from the Israel figures.

  15. Bloody hell 🙁

    We had better have some sensible policies in place by the time the enormous flow of people from Africa into Europe starts proper. We are only at the very beginning of it in demographic terms.

    From Wiki:

    “As of 2013, the total population of Africa is estimated at 1.1 billion, representing approximately 15% of the world’s population.[6] According to UN estimates, the population of Africa may reach nearly 2.5 billion by 2050 (about 26% of the world’s total) and nearly 4.4 billion by 2100 (about 39% of the world’s total).”

    “More than 40% of the population is below 15 years old in most sub-Saharan countries, as well as the Sudan but with the exception of South Africa,[7] in Uganda as many as 50% (as compared to 20% in the USA). “

  16. TIS- thanks for the links. I found a report for Dispatches via the migration watch site (references on PDF of that page). This is the kind of thing that is required to convince sappy socialists about the reality of this issue- obviously the migration watch site itself is a place they cannot go. BBC link also good.

  17. The next influx of migrants to the UK should be the white population of South Africa which it seems “Bring me my machine-gun” Zuma is determined to destroy.

    Several million people who have seen “real” socialism in action and will vote accordingly. The left have been importing voters for decades–now its our turn.

    Nor will they be penniless. In addition to the skills that made SA formerly prosperous they will be able to bring over cash, gold and assets –more than any other group of migrants.

    Of course Zuma will likely try to rob them before they go as Hitler did escaping Jews. But We step in and point out that this is contrary to their human rights and as they are to become Subjects of the Crown is also an act of war. Said war will consist of smashing the South African military and a giant up-country raid in SA taking everything of value not nailed down. The mirror image of Zuma’s plan for white people in fact.

    Our new friends will bring their firearms with them and once here the new Britons will of course take no notice whatsoever of the UK’s gun laws (with the same respect for our law and culture as earlier imports showed towards our rape and molestation laws). The Police–just as they dare take little action counter to the wishes of a certain cult ( socialism of course) will not have the courage to have a go at our new refugee friends and the gun control nonsense that plagues this nation will rapidly collapse.

    Good news all round.

  18. Sadly I fear that South Africans will not be allowed to escape, and will be genocided for their historical wrongthink. I hope I am wrong.

  19. Said war will consist of smashing the South African military

    Mr. Ecks. There’s not much military left to smash. Certainly the SADF is not the force it was in the 80s when I served in 5 Medical Battalion.

  20. Henry–You should NEVER no class your enemies.

    Has not Fish-face demonstrated that a fortnight ago?

    No matter how useless you may think them you should hit them as if you were battling the Wermacht on their best day.

    There is no such thing as overkill.

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