This is just flat out lying

There is no sum that has trade lost to Europe replaced by trade with the rest of the world. Every economic model, however sceptical, has Brexit costing the British economy dear.

Patrick Minford has Brexit as making us richer.

It’s entirely fair to want to examine his model, argue with it if you wish, but to state “every economic model” is simply a lie.

50 thoughts on “This is just flat out lying”

  1. Bloke in North Dorset

    “All models are wrong but some are useful”
    George Box

    Im guessing Minford’s is in the public domain and the others aren’t?

  2. The people – overwhelmingly the working people of Britain, as opposed to the rent-seeking class – voted to escape the EU even though it will supposedly cost them dear.

    This point, which really tells you all you need to know, is completely lost on Remainers.

  3. There’s a bit of an issue with the models if none at all have trade with 6.5 bn people in rapidly growing economics outnumbering 0.5bn people in a stagnating economy. Especially if they have any measure of the long term.

  4. Trade lost to Europe will only be because of new barriers erected to trade, which will cost the EU too. Why on earth would they do that? That fact that they are likely to do so tells me why we should not be supporting such an institution.

  5. Once again, they probably mean “costing dear” in comparison with the position we are in now, whereas the question really ought to be whether Brexit will be “costing dear” in comparison with the position we would be in in the future if we were to stay in the EU, in the light of the way the EU seems to be developing.

    I believe you’ve already made this point, Tim.

  6. wat dabney…I don’t think the point has been lost, just that it should be ignored. Petulant, ignorant children children, etc.

  7. 1. UK trade lost to the EU will not be replaced by trade with the rest of the world

    and:

    2. Brexit will make the UK richer

    are not necessarily contradictory. 1 might true in the short-term; 2 might be true in the longer term. And exports lost to the EU might not be replaced by exports to the rest of the world, but this could be offset by cheaper imports making us richer.

  8. Perhaps I’m getting nasty in my old age but its time the ReMainiac gang started getting some punishment for their endless lying and peddling of false and defeatist shite.

    Trying to undermine public morale is a crime in wartime and–given the state of Anarcho-Tyranny that now seems to be a feature of UK life ( see the Wiltshire Police tweetshite on Tim Newmans blog–) then I see no reason for treason and sedition charges to be held back longer from Minford and a great many of his mates. Plus a good hiding covered by the old “resisting arrest” ploy.

    It is unlikely there would be any convictions but the process is the punishment as they say.

    It couldn’t happen to a nicer or more deserving bunch.

  9. Ooh… at last. The right type of discussion. Trade is good. Barriers to trade to Europe bad, barriers to trade Rest of the world bad. False dichotomy being peddled i suspect but once this gets the oxygen of discussion more likely the real facts will emerge.

    My blood was sou vided by Jay Raynor’s catty Michael Gove snub. Jay has totally bought into the food security self sufficiency movement and puts it forward as if he’s an expert in anything other than his own stomach and taste buds.

    http://www.jayrayner.co.uk/news/michael-gove-asked-me-to-a-meeting-to-share-my-expertise-i-declined-instead-ive-given-him-a-piece-of-my-mind/

  10. There’s probably at least one model out there that shows global cooling as well.

    The wonder of this is a rare thing in economics – something we can actually measure, and compare from one place to another. So all we have to do is wait and compare the number ~2.5 years after Brexit day with that on the day before the referendum.

    That’s the earliest we will know who is right, and which of the accursed models is least wrong.

  11. The Meissen Bison

    Ecksie: Perhaps I’m getting nasty in my old age

    No, no, absolutely not.

    However, it’s a good idea as one gets older to look out for signs of change and to seek help as appropriate. DNR Reed is a case in point where even eagle-eyed carers can fail to provide restraint 100% of the time which is why he turns up here and berates passers-by.

  12. Trade is not the be all and end all. Minford forgets that for many of us, we voted leave to reject political union, and reject unelected foreigners deciding what we can and cannot do in our own country.

  13. Theo–I admit to skimming the article rather than an in-depth reading–cos I’m sick of ReMainiac shite–but if that load of cockrot is pro-Brexit my name is Hertz van Rentals.

    It is a load of abusive shite –shot thro with cowardice and stupidity–and ends by peddling North’s EEA semi-sellout. Minford can claim what he likes–“friends” like him we can do without. He is jumped up London Bubble trash be he a begrudging Brexit “supporter” or not.

    Yes to treason charge still. He won’t be convicted but with luck he will bankrupted.

  14. The link is to an article by Simon Jenkins which does not seem to mention Patrick Minford at all. Why is Ecksy getting so worked up about one of the few academics who came out publicly in support of Brexit?

  15. “Why is Ecksy getting so worked up about one of the few academics who came out publicly in support of Brexit?”

    Apparently, because, blinded by rage, Ecksy has assumed Simon Jenkins is Patrick Minford.

  16. To judge by my Facebook feed there was a significant proportion of leavers prepared to make a personal sacrifice for their cause. Rather like there were a large number of Britons prepared for personal sacrifice in 1940. I saw not one remainer similarly prepared, they all expected a reward.
    Hence repeating the line that leaving will cost will be as effective now as during the referendum. Less so now as a fair part of the cost has been proved illusory.
    And as above, in an age with negligible transport costs, at least by sea, I can see no advantage in setting a tarrif wall against the world simply in order to avoid one with the EU.
    BTW There are climate models predicting cooling. They are based on solar activity rather than trace gas concentration.

  17. Ecks – Minford is from a group called Economists for Brexit.

    BiG – The counterfactuals are so many and varied that nobody will ever to be able to say either way what the impact of Brexit is (or at least people will be able to make arguments in the opposite direction).

  18. German and French business will not allow tariff walls.

    They are not politicians, have to look after P&L and Balance Sheets and cannot afford to be petty and cut their noses off to spite their faces.

    Expect EU politicians to be discretely threatened by national politicians who have has a serious chat with their business leaders.

  19. Theo–Correct.

    While speed to the attack is very often an asset in combat–as gunfighter Bill Tilghman put it “I always managed to beat the other fellow to it by the 16th part of a second “–it is often as well to assess who should be clubbed before rushing to the clubbing.

    My profound apologies to Mr Minford.

    And the substitution of Simon Olivers name into all my abusive remarks.

  20. Mal Reynolds: “There’s a bit of an issue with the models if none at all have trade with 6.5 bn people in rapidly growing economies outnumbering 0.5bn people in a stagnating economy.” (I have presumed to alter economics to economies)

    That seems a concise and accurate summary of the situation and quite unanswerable.

  21. I must have missed the meeting where it was agreed most models made us worse off. Even HMT said life will keep getting better, just not by as much.
    Why do lefties keep redefining words like ‘worse off’ ‘poverty’ ‘austerity’ etc. Heck they even say the NHS has been ‘cut’ when the amount has increased by less than they would like.
    It makes no sense, as it doesn’t help them communicate their intentions, even when they are good.

  22. The Meissen Bison

    OT but Guido has an update on Abi Wilkinson’s 100% IHT idea encapsulated in her tweet:

    If I inherit anything from my parents, I’ll keep what it takes to get out of my overdraft + maybe a couple of grand cushion then donate the rest

    This is useful information for Mr & Mrs Wilkinson to mull over.

  23. If I inherit anything from my parents, I’ll keep what it takes to get out of my overdraft + maybe a couple of grand cushion then donate the rest

    And is, of course, total bollocks. She won’t do anything of the sort.

  24. So Ecks is in favour of the state picking on individuals to destroy on the grounds of him not liking them/disagreeing with them.

    How socialist of him!

  25. Social Justice Warrior

    Minford says “We assume explicitly that the EU treats us under an FTA [free trade agreement] as it does now – so no change.”

    I suggest that that’s a wildly unrealistic assumption.

  26. ISTM rather fatuous even to try to give such a general answer as to whether “the economy” will be better or worse off, as it affects different people in different ways. If fewer migrants means that lower skilled wages are bid up, and the cost of housing falls, then, for a sizable proportion of the population, then they will be better off, even if “the economy” isn’t.

    And when the hell are commentators in the mainstream, the BBC, say, going to acknowledge that it isn’t leaving per se which is causing the problem, but the EU’s determination to make us worse off by imposing tariffs and introducing restrictions solely designed to wrench economic activity away from the UK for political reasons.?

  27. Biggie, Biggie–There is difference between having an opinion and being part of a propaganda campaign organised–and likely financed by– enemy foreign powers in an attempt to undermine and destroy what is left of freedom in this country and cement the yoke of said foreign tyrants and crooked thieves/scum. Which is exactly what the EU are and what they and their ReMainiac stooges are up to.

    Idiots have always existed as have stooges and evildoers. Even such are entitled to their opinion. But when those opinions are used in an organised, orchestrated and never-ending attempt to undermine the nations morale–much as commies helped your own dear German socialists undermine France’s morale in 1940–then action must be taken.

    Before freedom must come both survival and victory.

    Remember that Biggie and get yourself that gun before swarming beards put YOU to the test.

  28. SJW, I suspect that most people here want to sever all links to the EU but I would prefer a relationship much as we have now but without the ever-deepening hollowing out of the political freedom of individual nations

  29. “My profound apologies to Mr Minford.”

    So, despite your rants, you are a gentleman, Ecksy.

    + 1 for civilisation (though the bank is running rather low at present)

  30. @Social Justice Warrior – July 27, 2017 at 3:40 pm

    Minford says “We assume explicitly that the EU treats us under an FTA [free trade agreement] as it does now – so no change.”

    I suggest that that’s a wildly unrealistic assumption.

    Why? Isn’t a Free Trade Agreement exactly what has just been finalised between the EU and Japan? Without, of course, all the political baggage, “free movement”, “ever closer union”, etc etc..

  31. “Before freedom must come both survival and victory.”

    Exactly, Ecksy. Freedom is a high priority; but national and cultural survival are even higher priorities!!! (PS please notify your libertarian pals…)

  32. The EU imposing tariffs doesn’t make us worse off, it make people in the eu who commit the drive of buying UK goods worse off. It’s the pelp!e BUYING goods who pay taxes on them.

    Ireland was repeatedly told they would be worse off leaving the union, but they thought it a price worth paying, as did the American colonies, as did Scotland. These morons cannot understand a preferred option being worth more than its cost. Did none of these idiots ever go shopping?

  33. “I suggest that that’s a wildly unrealistic assumption.”

    I think you may well be right, SJW.

    But that raises deep questions about the nature of the EU.

    Why would the UK want to be a member of a club that treats leaving members worse than it treats a non-member like Japan?

    Doesn’t the EU’s general attitude suggest imperialism? Something you lefties profess to loathe.

    In particular, consider the extraordinary claim that EU citizens’ rights in the UK should be decided by the ECJ, not by UK courts. Never in western history has any sovereign state allowed such a thing. If this isn’t imperialist, what is???

  34. jgh on a phone on a boat

    They had westerner_only compounds in imperial China ruled by western law. Maybe that’s what they want.

  35. One wonders why you need a Free Trade Agreement to have free trade.

    I assume it is on one page.

  36. “Freedom is a high priority; but national and cultural survival are even higher priorities!!! (PS please notify your libertarian pals…)”

    Absolutely correct. Using libertarian arguments against national and cultural survival when we live in a statist socialist reality is akin to bending over and surrendering.

  37. Ireland was repeatedly told they would be worse off leaving the union, but they thought it a price worth paying, as did the American colonies, as did Scotland. These morons cannot understand a preferred option being worth more than its cost. Did none of these idiots ever go shopping?

    Precisely so. And (largely) the same group of people, when it’s pointed out to them that halting arm sales to regimes they find unsavoury will make us all poorer and cost some their jobs will reply: “That’s a small price to pay for doing the right thing”.

    What was that line about “double standards” and “no standards”?

  38. “If I inherit anything from my parents, I’ll keep what it takes to get out of my overdraft + maybe a couple of grand cushion then donate the rest”

    Someone needs to remind Ms Wilkinson of this quote in a few decades time. Or indeed her parents when the will is being drawn up.

  39. Pogo,

    The Japan-EU announcement was a bit of PR. All they’ve achieved is an ‘agreement in principle’ covering some main issues. It’ll be a few more years of negotiating and ratification before it means anything.

    For illustration, the Canada EU negotiations that began in 2009 reached a similar point in October 2013 and wasn’t finalised until earlier this year.

  40. The Japan-EU announcement was a bit of PR. All they’ve achieved is an ‘agreement in principle’ covering some main issues. It’ll be a few more years of negotiating and ratification before it means anything.

    As I understand it, one of the significant outstanding points is a dispute resolution procedure. I assume the EU are following the same line as with the UK and insisting that it must be the ECJ.

  41. Gamecock, I have found that unless you have commonly accepted standards a foreign hard core movie might not necessarily contain a money shot. Free trade doesn’t mean accepting any old shit

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