Richard Murphy says:
September 17 2017 at 8:56 pm
First it is apparent that many of these people came from the site of Tim Worstall, an Adam Smith Institute Fellow, inclined to persistent abuse and encouraging those of like mind.Second, I am pointing out the market works within narrow horizons. You too are ignoring the fact that this does not mean it always works. Of course we can value bonds if we assume all will continue as it is. I am saying that right now that may not be true and in that case maybe we cannot value them. What is so odd about that? This is what happens in meltdowns.
And re your comment on Greek debt, you are ignoring that Greek debt has a wholly different situation to UIK debt. Maybe you think it’s situation and that of the UK is the same and so circumstances apply equally. Clearly that is not true. Maybe you need to think about why the differences are possible and what that means instead of making what look to be rather ridiculous comments.
He’s still just not getting it, is he?
The comments from ‘Shyam Shah’ and several others merely expose what a cretin he is. Anyone who works in the Fixed Income world (to use Industty parlance) knows models are never 100% accurate. However, he offers absolutely no alternative beyond saying ‘the assets are overvalued’ – an observation which might well be true but offers no insight into how that conclusion is arrived at. I find it a rule of thumb that whenever an author starts talking about ‘trolls’it invariably means they lack the wit to defend their position – the fact with Murphy it happens after usually one or two comments tell you how much wit the man has. The sooner he is on a plane to Caracas or Pyongyang the better….
It seems that he has support from stevie who claims to be an advisor to the HMRC. He merely seems bonkers to me.
“So, speaking from the perspective of my past experience as a technical advisor to what was then the Board of Inland Revenue on the Accrued Income Scheme, I should note that the people trolling you share the misconceptions about the nature of interest which led to the existence of the Accrued Income Scheme legislation in the first place.
For those fortunate enough never to have encountered the AIS I should note that it was an anti-avoidance measure which sought to tackle the loss of income tax when gilts were sold as a capital transaction by apportioning part of the sale price as accrued interest taxable as income. The fact that the apportionment was done on a straight line basis along the coupon period demonstrated only too obviously the drafters incomprehension of what interest is and their inability to understand the value of such a gilt.
Taking a simple example: a gilt sold with a six month coupon of £1,000,000 due in 3 months time was said to include an interest element of £500,000. This was, of course, utter nonsense; no sane person is going to pay £500,000 now for the right to be paid £500,000 in three months time.
In fairness to my predecessors who had come up with this I should note that the Bank of England had also apparently failed to notice this point, and that people trading gilts saw nothing wrong with it either. I am therefore not overwhelmingly surprised by the bravura demonstrations of pearl clutching by those horrified by the very idea that they could be wrong about what their gilts are worth.”
Nurse, nurse, close the curtains!
he remains not only stubbornly stupid but aggresively stupid. rather than realise that he’s yet again made a pigs ear he continues to keep on digging insulting all around him except his faithful band of sycophants such as the nauseatingly lick pilgrim slight return who lap up his every word. as for his assertion that all his critics are fans of Timmy he’s too stupid to notice when he’s being insulted – i won’t list the most recent 2 as it would spoil the fun. And yes Murphy – i think you are a cunt if you are reading this and i have more than 1 email address you cretin
Someone should point him to a Guardian article from 2015 on this topic by Robert Shiller
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/16/bond-market-crashes-and-market-contagion
“Bond-market crashes have actually been relatively rare and mild. In the US, the biggest one-year drop in the Global Financial Data extension of Moody’s monthly total return index for 30-year corporate bonds (going back to 1857) was 12.5% in the 12 months ending in February 1980”
Ah, yes, but Shiller’s a neoliberal you see. Despite winning the Nobel for his work on market valuations. And his first paper was with his graduate adviser, Franco Modigliani, another Nobel Laureate.
What other proof do we need that he’s a neoliberal? He actually knows his economics….
And in a situation where so many government bonds are owned by central banks, any crash is likely to be contained, isn’t it?
Sometimes he writes as if he thinks that market valuations are arrived at by committee. In other words he wants there to be a correct number and a small number of people which would include people like him can work it out.
There may be a word for this mind-set.
I don’t work in finance but even I get the broad principles of how gilts work, so why is he being so dogmatic? Does he have one of his bids for vermin of EU cash dependent on his case?
Or has he thrown something out without thinking and is now having to keep digging very hard to justify it rather than accept he was wrong?
@bind – he’s never wrong (though he pretends sometimes he acknowledges his mistakes – albeit of the trivial kind) – anything major he keeps on digging/insulting until he can latch on to something else- ie insulting brexiteers seems his latest diversion so its definitely “Or has he thrown something out without thinking and is now having to keep digging very hard to justify it rather than accept he was wrong?” – though he does think – it’s just that he doesn’t understand .
moqifen, I read pilgrim slight return (both moniker and comments) as a very subtle piss-take of The Great Tuber.
Spud might not get it, but one senses that his keyboard is getting it – good and hard!
Did anyone else notice this gem?
Moqifen
I’m with Henry Crun on suspecting that ‘Pilgrim Slight Return’ is a spoof. Sadly, there has been little on there from the usual ‘big four’ – indeed, I am wondering if his spat with Mcdonnell has meant Dickie, Reed, Horrocks, and Wilcox have been instructed not to post there.
This was certainly my favourite comment, though, across the two pieces…
‘Simon Cofant says:
September 16 2017 at 7:32 pm
Richard
When these neoliberal trolls are trying to disrupt your truth, you know you are doing something right!
Keep up the good work,
Si’
What an utter dimwit. Certainly anyone going to City University ought to ask their senior management about the quality of recruit they are taking on…
Given going concern is a fundamental concept of accounting and he’s saying that it no longer applies in this case is he also criticising the accounting firms who audit bond holders for not having qualified their accounts?
So glad to see the impressive Dr Keith back posting on TRUK again. I thought he’d been banned.
Have to agree with VP, the man Murphy is patently a cretin and his mental deficiencies are getting worse. Perhaps the reason why his wife could no longer put up with him in the same house.
My email to the Vice-Chancellor has just gone