Climate change poses less of an immediate threat to the planet than previously thought because scientists got their modelling wrong, a new study has found.
Wrong isn’t quite the right word. Actions taken have changed things.
An unexpected “revolution” in affordable renewable energy has also contributed to the more positive outlook.
Near everyone uses Business as Usual (BAU) predictions of emissions and thus temperatures. Near everyone uses, as their BAU, either A1FI from the SRES or RCP 8.5 from the newer set.
We’re not, ever, going to get anywhere close to those emissions levels, Precisely because we’ve gone off and done all this stuff with renewables.
No, leave aside whether they’re reliable, cheap, whatever, we’re simply not, ever, going to have the sort of energy mix assumed by either of those BAUs. The use of them is, in reality, lying now, for we really do know they’re never going to come to pass. Even just the simple existence of fracking for gas means we’re never going to get to them. For their basic underlying assumption is a largely coal fired world.
So, that part of the analysis is correct. This isn’t:
But yesterday he said: “We’re in the midst of an energy revolution and it’s happening faster than we thought, which makes it much more credible for governments to tighten the offer they put on the table at Paris.”
No, that’s not what to do at all. Instead, say, great, it’ll be cheaper to hit the target we need to thus great, we’ve done it. That’s the time to declare victory and go home.