I don’t think so really

There is a “catastrophic” gap between what needs to be done on climate change and what governments and companies are actually doing, the UN has warned.

Despite pledges to work to mitigate and deal with climate change, current plans still lead to a 3-degree Celsius rise in temperatures by the end of the decade, a major new report warns.

Replace “decade” with “century” and you’ve got what the report does try to say.

35 thoughts on “I don’t think so really”

  1. “10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn’t believe in climate change”

    Is there a single photo there convinces of anything? Smoke blowing across a field in Colombia? Like the smoke you see blowing across fields in Essex when they’re stubble burning? Flooding in Bangladesh? Bangladesh would be the Indian Ocean if it wasn’t for repeated flooding from the great Indian river system depositing silt at its estuaries

  2. Wow, that’s really dangerous!

    Only 2 years until the event. Normally, it’s long enough for people to have forgotten the prophecy.

  3. That Thermageddon scenario depends entirely upon computer models which have yet to show any connection with reality. Ignore and get on with the solution of providing cheap, reliable energy to the 1.3 Billion people who don’t have as much as an electric light, shall we?

  4. Nothing needs to be done. We’re actually at the low end of average temperature and CO2 in earth’s history. The catastrophiliacs assiduously avoid any time frame other than the last 150 years when the world emerged from the Little Ice Age and carbon dioxide levels were marginal for supporting plants.

  5. When I’m trying to work out where a project is most likely going to end up, as well as reading the team projections, I also just extrapolate from where we currently are. It’s a good heuristic when there is great uncertainty.

    We are neatly at the 2 decade mark and may have achieved a 0.1’C increase (if the raised temps from the Pacific blob and 2016 el nino don’t completely disappear). This extrapolates to half a degree of warming by the end of the century.

    Colour me slightly sceptical of 3’C of warming by the end of the century.

  6. Eco-tripe.

    Ignore and put whoever wrote it in “accounts receivable” for the great day when the mass, collective punishment of socialism falls due.

  7. So Much For Subtlety

    Despite pledges to work to mitigate and deal with climate change, current plans still lead to a 3-degree Celsius rise in temperatures by the end of the decade, a major new report warns.

    The end of the decade? The end of *this* decade? They are insane. For seven and a half years nothing and then 3C rise in the remaining two and a half?

    Ignoring them has worked well up to this point, but is it now time to mock them like mediaeval French soldiers talking to King Arthur?

  8. We are actually, technically in an ice age right now. People confuse ice age for interglacial. Ice ages last a long time – millions of years. They are characterised by periods of advancing ice called glacials and perios of retreating ice call interglacials. The advnaces and retreats happen over timescales of tens of thousands of years. Two glacials ago some cold adapted animla such as the cave bear went extinct. One glacial ago Neanderthal man went. Our current interglacial has lasted longer then average – we’re about 11,000 years in now. This encompasses all of human history, agriculture, the lot. we’re overdue a return to a glacial period. Could start in a few thousand years. Could start next week. Where will earth be from a climate point of view on 100 years? Nobody knows. We might be a mile under the ice.

  9. Solid Steve 2: Squirrels of The Patriots

    “Time is running out to claim your Nigerian internet fortune!”, says increasingly nervous conman

  10. In related news, privileged member of monarchy who has two children already with a third on the way advocates “voluntary family limitation” as a means of solving overpopulation, which he described as the biggest challenge in conservation.

  11. BF
    It’s not whitey who is threatening the habitats of heffalumps or who imagines rhino horn has magical properties…

  12. We’re coming up to the twentieth anniversary of the adoption of the Kyoto protocol and the amount of atmospheric CO2 is still rising at the same old rate.

    We’ve recently signed the Paris Accord and already we’re being told that most nations are not fulfilling their pledges and those that are are the ones that have pledged to take loads of cash from the wicked west while building coal fired power stations at a rate of knots and surpassing even the yanks in CO2 emissions.

    It is way past time to accept that even if CO2 is the incredibly sensitive control knob of global climate, (it’s not of course, else the world would already be as hot as Venus), then we have no chance of changing our wicked ways over the next century and that therefore all our efforts on the climate front should go towards being wealthy enough to adapt when it changes.

    So we should use lots of hydrocarbons as fuel to power our wealth creation and develop fission and fusion, (next twenty years, honest), to augment and eventually replace them.

    But no. We won’t do that. Instead we will make ourselves poorer by wrecking what was once a perfectly serviceable energy distribution system to absolutely no effect.

    But at least we’ll lead the way, (off the cliff).

  13. Despite pledges to work to mitigate and deal with climate change, current plans still lead to a 3-degree Celsius rise in temperatures by the end of the decade, a major new report warns.

    So *that’s* why old Cnut couldn’t hold back the tide: companies and governments weren’t doing their bit to help.

  14. Three degrees in just under 26 months? An absurd lie. They are pissing away any credibility they may once have had. Only the True Believers will swallow it, and they would believe a twenty degree rise by next Thursday unless Corbyn seizes power.

    Emissions spew out of a large stack

    Impartial reporting.

  15. ‘Emissions’ look like steam. Stacks at right – with zero visible emissions – are probably from the burning coal.

  16. “10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn’t believe in climate change”

    Yes, I saw this on a similar article a few weeks ago and commented then. Dried cracked earth? Any field near me in July. It’s called Summer.

    A crack in the ice with some Penguins bear it…huh?

    People who believe these photos ‘prove’ climate change are exactly the same as the people who would claim a photo of a statue of the Virgin Mary with a drop of water under one eye proves the statue was weeping.

  17. Social Justice Warrior

    The actual report is about what needs to be done to restrict warming by the end of the century to below two degrees Celsius. So far as I can see it does not discuss the possibility of a 3-degree rise on any timescale.

    It’s always better not to rely on newspaper accounts of scientific reports.

  18. Patrick

    The current interglacial MIS1 should be assumed to end with the currently decaying obliquity cycle as per Huybers 2007, Tzedakis et al., 2017. Given usual slow decent from inception we should expect to be in a full blown glaciation within 20 KYA and expect the next interglacial in 70 KYA. Inception itself within 5 KYA.

  19. P. S. Descent into glaciation should be the null hypothesis, perhaps elevated CO2 will keep us out but that is a long way from being demonstrated

  20. SJW: Well, pouring scorn on current standards of journalism is standard practice here. But even the report’s 3° C by the end of the century is bollocks when looking at current trends. An average of a lot of wrong model predictions is going to be no closer to being right than any of the wrong models. Averaging works well with noisy measurements, especially if the noise has a Gaussian distribution. It doesn’t work at all for predictions where the premises are wrong – there is just no noise to average. Monte-Carlo simulations don’t help either in this case as you just average back to a wrong model outcome.

  21. Social Justice Warrior

    But even the report’s 3° C by the end of the century is bollocks

    I can’t see anywhere in the report where it mentions 3° C

  22. So Much For Subtlety

    DocBud – “Life of Brian wasn’t a documentary.”

    Are you sure? I have pretty firm memories of some nuns.

  23. ‘There is a “catastrophic” gap between what needs to be done on climate change and what governments and companies are actually doing, the UN has warned.’

    The clear – and obvious – solution: get rid of the UN.

  24. So Much For Subtlety

    DocBud – “Well if it was, how do I book a weekend at Castle Anthrax?”

    My first response was, well, you’ve got a gorgeous red head at home you lucky [email protected] – stop being greedy. And my second response was you’ve got a gorgeous red head at home you lucky [email protected] – stop being greedy.

    But on further reflection, I feel compelled to mention that I hear it is easy. You just have to follow the flashing neon sign. I am sure that your wife will appreciate your new found piety so go for it. As a friend I would be happy to go around to her place and explain for you if you like. At some length.

  25. SMFS,

    It’s just that I have one or two medical conditions that I think Doctor Piglet and Doctor Winston could help me with.

  26. So Much For Subtlety

    DocBud – “It’s just that I have one or two medical conditions that I think Doctor Piglet and Doctor Winston could help me with.”

    Don’t tell me you’re an old ex-leper?

  27. Rob said:
    “Do these people flagellate themselves when their kettle boils?”

    They probably don’t know how to use a kettle. They’ll buy their vegan soya lattes from a coffee place.

  28. ‘It aims to cap global temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100’

    They use maths to imply precision. ‘2 degrees’ was pulled out of someone’s butt.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *