Surprise!July 14, 2018 Tim WorstallEuropean Union49 CommentsUK’s latest Brexit plans likely to cross EU red lines, Barnier hints previousAnd if he did say this?nextNot quite sure what to make of this 49 thoughts on “Surprise!” Mr Ecks July 14, 2018 at 10:03 am Good–I feared they might kiss her arse to help themselves out but it is looking like the bitch will have to crawl back with more of their demands. BraveFart July 14, 2018 at 10:08 am Fvck em. Hard Brexit now with no cash. PJF July 14, 2018 at 10:16 am One hopes this was her plan all along. Diogenes July 14, 2018 at 10:22 am As if Barnier would say anything else…. Let’s face it, this is not a negotiation in any sense. Martin July 14, 2018 at 10:24 am Hopefully Brexit will be cancelled and we’ll start a couple of decades of trying to get a solution to the problems such as Irish border. Jim July 14, 2018 at 10:27 am “One hopes this was her plan all along.” Yes, and I’ve got a bridge you might be interested in. The Chequers plan was the UK bending over backwards and asking to be reamed up the arse. Thats not a clever negotiating strategy, because if your opponent has the slightest brain, he will do as offered. Not go ‘You know what, thanks but no thanks, what I really want you to do is get on your knees and beg before I ritually disembowel you’, giving you a chance to come to your senses. In this case we may actually get lucky and the EU will throw out even this horrendous (for the UK) agreement because they think they can get even more. But I wouldn’t count against the current crew agreeing to even more concessions in their desperate attempt to turn us into an EU vassal State. PF July 14, 2018 at 10:35 am Martin 🙂 PJF July 14, 2018 at 10:46 am I said hope, Jim, not expect. I’ve been pessimistic about Brexit since the Referendum. I still think our most likely way out the EU is its own collapse. PF July 14, 2018 at 10:47 am In this case we may actually get lucky and the EU will throw out even this horrendous (for the UK) agreement because they think they can get even more. Our best hope – that the EU will be too greedy. But I wouldn’t count against the current crew agreeing to even more concessions in their desperate attempt to turn us into an EU vassal State. My gut would be that those currently keeping their powder dry (re May, as there probably aren’t the numbers yet to unseat her) would break cover at that point? We’re also relying on the opposition “opposing”, Lib/Lab Remainers (thinking they can revoke the whole process) not supporting May, and ordinary Leavers, all combining to defeat this. Of course, the Lib/Lab Remainers and Leavers cannot both be right, but that might not stop them individually pursuing what they believe is possible. Thomas Fuller July 14, 2018 at 11:03 am What would be the result of one member state of the EU declaring war on another? Would the other 27 club together and expel it without ado? Malta is a tempting prospect, since it is small and weedy and the people, who combine the worst aspects of the Sicilians and the Arabs, hate us most virulently; though I must say that quite a few Englishmen hanker after another war with France. After all, we haven’t had one for a goodly while and it’s definitely overdue. Plus we might get Gascony, etc., back. Just an idea. I have already emailed it to Mrs May. bloke in spain July 14, 2018 at 11:35 am Christ, you’re not serious are you,Mr Fuller? Don’t forget the UK’s actually lost the last few military excursions it’s been involved in. Due to political & military incompetence. Even the French aren’t that hopeless. At least their carrier has aircraft. Do you want the Maltese dictating surrender terms? A Frog Occupation? Steve July 14, 2018 at 12:11 pm Can we keep President Trump? Steve July 14, 2018 at 12:14 pm Even the French aren’t that hopeless. At least their carrier has aircraft. Good ones, too. If only we’d bought the Rafale. I was talking to an Army officer recently who was boasting to me about the success of the British Army’s LGBT outreach initiatives. So at least we’ve got that going for us. Pat July 14, 2018 at 12:16 pm @PJF. I very much doubt Mrs May has a plan at all, beyond following advice. However the procedure she is following may well have the effect of rallying people to fight for a clean exit. Mainly because it has tempted the EU into exposing its own greed and arrogance. Jim July 14, 2018 at 12:17 pm We could parachute drop drag queens onto the French, that would frighten them to death. Bongo July 14, 2018 at 12:21 pm If only the negotiation was in 2010 when the UK had no money ( according to Liam Byrne ). Now that the UK government budget is approaching balance the EU will think they can ask for bigger payments from us for market access. It’s always about the money ( especially for landowners ). ken July 14, 2018 at 12:25 pm The conclusion from the election was that May is brainless and very stupid. She clearly tends to blindly follow poor quality advice from her advisers. Since the idiots in the EU will overplay their hand, the odds are that it will end in a hard Brexit. Followed by a compromise deal which will leave the UK in a better position as the member states realise the damage hard Brexit will cause their own countries and the Commission is sidelined in the aftermath. bloke in spain July 14, 2018 at 12:30 pm ” May is brainless and very stupid. ” But May is an Oxbridge graduate! How can that be? Thomas Fuller July 14, 2018 at 12:44 pm @BIS, 11.35 Such pusillanimity never deterred Henry V. 🙂 Bloke in North Dorset July 14, 2018 at 12:46 pm Let’s consider what would happen in the unlikely event May gets this through the EU and Parliament without any further capitulation. Have the British people got the heart for a fight? If Nigel comes back to take the reins of UKIP it’s going to take a while to sort them out, they’ve become a laughing stock of late and be caricatured as the worst kind of Brexit. Both parties will be shitting themselves that Nigel can sort out UKIP and mobilise the troops and if he does he will rip the heart out of both of them. For that reason alone I don’t think labour will play, so it will be up to a few rebels. For all he says publicly my guess is Corbyn wants a hard Brexit, anything else will severely restrict his political ambitions. I hunk were in for interesting times and a realignment of politics. Theophrastus July 14, 2018 at 12:53 pm The EU wants the UK to either (a) become a vassal state or (b) leave with a hard Brexit. From the EU’s perspective, (a) involves less disruption, while (b) supposedly punishes the UK and so discourages other potential leavers. I believe Barnier and Selmayr favour (b). Here, we have a clueless PM surrounded by remainiacs. Two-thirds of MPs represent leave-voting constituencies and yet there is no majority for a hard Brexit and probably no majority for May’s current ‘plan’. The two most likely outcomes are that the UK crashes out with no deal or that MPs vote for ‘off the shelf’ EEA membership at the last minute. The former is my favoured outcome. But I would prefer the latter to May’s bespoke ‘plan’, as it would be absolutely clear that Brexit had not been achieved. Meanwhile, May could fall or resign, or there might be a general election. Prediction is difficult — particularly of the future. Jimmers July 14, 2018 at 1:50 pm It’s a stitch up by May and her EUphiliac civil servants. She never had any intention of implementing anything like a proper brexit. Deals were done in secret between the EU and a cabal around May after the vote and the rest has been theatrics to keep the plebs in their place – we are now seeing the final stages play out so everyone is being whipped into a frenzy about how bad it will be for them, whatever way the voted. May and the EU will then come up with some EEA-lite type plan which everyone will desperately grab at as the least worst option. Buried in the small print will be numerous traps that will tie us to the EU for evermore and leave us significantly weaker and worse off than we are now. And the EU will quietly amend article 50 so it is so punitive to any country trying to implement it in the future in reality they won’t be able to. Alex July 14, 2018 at 1:57 pm @bis ‘But May is an Oxbridge graduate! How can that be?’ Read Geography.Not an academic subject. At school we weren’t allowed to study Geography because it wasn’t academic enough. At Cambridge I had a supervision partner who had switched from Geography. He couldn’t keep up. Edward Lud July 14, 2018 at 2:07 pm Hang on, chaps. The Frogs sent the carrier Clemenceau to the first Gulf war… without any aircraft on it. 27 years ago, I grant. Pat July 14, 2018 at 2:24 pm One thing I think we are seeing is that the EU believes it’s own bullshit. They are more than happy with a clean break because they think that EU membership helps the members. I think they want a hard Brexit as they genuinely think we will flounder without them thus setting an example for anyone else with ideas of independence. Sadly a lot of the civil service agree with them. The letter has been sent with Parliamentary approval, the Act has passed- and I doubt given their Byzantine internal procedures that the EU could complete a deal in the time remaining. And once we’re out there will be no choice but to make the best of it- then we’ll see. Pat July 14, 2018 at 2:43 pm May is very good at following advice or instruction. Which is what gets you academic recognition. She’s hopeless at choosing which side of an argument to take, and appears to have no original thought. She really means well though. Massively overpromoted. bloke in spain July 14, 2018 at 2:50 pm @Mr Fuller “Such pusillanimity never deterred Henry V” But he never had the MoD behind him. And he did his own generaling. @Alex So what’s geography? Dance? The country you have today owes much to a political/bureaucratic class stuffed to the gills with Oxbridge graduates. Lengths of stout rope would seem adequate reimbursement. As an Oxbridge graduate himself recently opined, the country’s had enough of “experts”. bloke in spain July 14, 2018 at 2:55 pm Incidentally, I always admire the affectation of university types saying they’ve “read” a subject. Without any presumption they’ve learnt anything by it. Mr Ecks July 14, 2018 at 3:06 pm Pay £30 –join UKIP–even if it is for only one year and you throw their mailings away. A UKIP surge that continues is the best and quickest way to put the shits up the Tory remain gang. Write to them and –still better–their associations–but an ever rising UKIP line will show them quickest they are toast unless Fish Face and her Sell Out are gone. Martin July 14, 2018 at 3:22 pm Winning or losing military actions is decided by meeting objectives. Quite possible that two opposing sides can both win. By having different objectives to meet. Edward Lud July 14, 2018 at 4:08 pm Martin, as Mark Steyn wrote a few years back, “the mullahs wanted to go nuclear, and Obama wanted a deal. They both got what they wanted”. Grist July 14, 2018 at 4:09 pm I think we need to bear in mind that, whatever MPs decide, the Civil Service will ensure that they create a gold plated clusterfuck. There are no people in that bunch of idle bastards with the intelligence, experience or motivation to do otherwise. Alex July 14, 2018 at 4:18 pm @bis advanced map reading. abacab July 14, 2018 at 4:38 pm The thing is, whatever the proposal, the answer is “EU says no”. I think the EU’s attempting to play brinkmanship (which committees are not exactly famed for being good at), but combine that with British bloody-mindedness and either a) they’ll cave at the last minute to something reasonable, b) end up with no deal. I don’t really think they want no deal, which would see the UK signing free-trade agreements with the entire anglosphere in a heartbeat, right on the EU’s doorstep. I think that would be great, but they probably wouldn’t. PJF July 14, 2018 at 4:44 pm “At least their carrier has aircraft.” Their aircraft have had no carrier for the last eighteen months (refit). French naval-air training has had to take place on US ships lately. Hopefully by having two carriers, we can always have one on duty (though we’d be best with three). The F35 should be useful, though the Bs should be Fleet Air Arm and the RAF should have As. Still theoretically an option, but as things stand the Norwegians, Dutch and Belgians will be able to shoot us out of our skies. Ridiculous, especially as we were the senior development partner on that project. bloke in spain July 14, 2018 at 4:46 pm @Alex Given that the political/bureaucratic class couldn’t find their collective arses with a GPS, sounds like a worthwhile subject. Although, notably, the FFC got an also ran. Recusant July 14, 2018 at 4:47 pm Geography? Sociology with maps. Mark T July 14, 2018 at 4:57 pm Geography…generally known as ‘colouring in ‘ Bloke in North Dorset July 14, 2018 at 7:04 pm “Pay £30 –join UKIP–even if it is for only one year and you throw their mailings away.” Too much. They should take a leaf out of Labour’s book and make it £5, £10 at most. And they should get real cute and make it £1 for everyone who brings a valid membership card from another party and tears it up in public. Gamecock July 14, 2018 at 7:36 pm Geography – it’s whatever you want it to be.* *As any National Geographic Magazine reader can tell you. They have articles on EVERYTHING, even an occasional geography one. Mr Ecks July 14, 2018 at 8:01 pm BiND–That’s a strategy that has done wonders for ZaNu. As witness that Jared Fuckwit a non PC CM prick who(m?) they “forgive” and who promptly tells them to cock off and resigns their whip. What a fucking shower. Grist–” think we need to bear in mind that, whatever MPs decide, the Civil Service will ensure that they create a gold plated clusterfuck. There are no people in that bunch of idle bastards with the intelligence, experience or motivation to do otherwise.” Which is why they need to be fired en masse–standard Eck’s terms. Tim Newman July 15, 2018 at 1:56 pm We could parachute drop drag queens onto the French, that would frighten them to death. If they landed in the Bois de Boulogne, would anyone notice? Pcar July 15, 2018 at 8:18 pm Theresa May”bot” defends her Chequers Plan on Andrew Marr https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgjszBAegCw And is distorting implicattions of her “Commmon Rule Book” and diverts, avoids and lies. Body language: becomes increasingly more uncomfortable, tense, closed, voice breaking – lies. Not a happy woman.. . Jacob Rees Mogg I can not trust myR Prime Minister https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LvDdWrbrzI Pcar July 15, 2018 at 8:20 pm Boris: “We need more Trump! He´s right about lots of things. Look at trade tariffs – he says we should get rid of them and everyone goes bonkers. But he´s right – why do we need them? Zero tariffs is the way forward. Zero, zero, ZERO! Trump, Trump, TRUMP!´ http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/event/article-5946981/We-need-Trump-Trump-Trump-Trump-said-Boris.html Free trade — Yes Interested July 16, 2018 at 1:30 pm Slightly OT but I’m not sure carriers are that important any more. They’re huge targets, and no-one can afford to lose one – it’s not like WW2 when we had dozens of them, and we didn’t have a vast welfare state to fund instead. Back on topic, I’m still wondering how this all plays out. I’m not sure that the country is pro Brexit – I could be wrong but a few of the 52% at the older end have dropped off their perches, and a lot of young morons who didn’t vote in the referendum will be busting to demonstrate their virtue if it comes around again. Could be wrong, who knows. But let’s say May goes, and there’s an immediate general election. Under what circumstances does a conservative/right-leaning Leave majority get back in to the HoC? I can see Corbyn getting in and things going very rapidly Venezuelan. I have not idea what the solution to this, or even if I’m right, btw. PJF July 16, 2018 at 10:46 pm I think aircraft carriers will remain important so long as the world geopolitical situation remains similar, with no full wars amongst equals but rather small to mid-sized power projections (and the threat thereof). . Under what circumstances does a (pretend) conservative / left-leaning majority-Remain party get elected? . By not attacking May’s leadership directly, has David Davis thrown his hat in the ring? Interested July 16, 2018 at 11:41 pm It doesn’t hurt having a carrier in the Gulf until one day a non state actor sinks it by some sort of undefendable future underwater drone tech and US taxpayers wonder why 100 blokes had to die and if it’s worth spending many billions of dollars to build another giant single basket full of expensive eggs when their own nation’s drone tech is by then getting to the point that UAVs can fly anywhere from anywhere 24/7. Yes, I realise this is all a way off but the US DoD and other defence depts think decades ahead when designing and commissioning things like carriers. I don’t think the Tories will get back in come what may. I think Corbyn is in next. PJF July 17, 2018 at 1:52 am I’ll admit it’s tough to see a positive outcome. Even if we got a popular Tory-led up-yours-Delors style Brexit the people might say “thanks for that” and vote socialist anyway, as per WWII. Interested July 17, 2018 at 1:05 pm Yep I think you’re right sadly. Leave a Reply Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment Name * Email * Website Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.