An interesting little proof

The west’s leading economic thinktank has warned that the expansion in the global economy may have peaked after cutting its growth forecasts for an array of rich and developing countries.

In its latest update on the health of the world economy, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said the outlook for both 2018 and 2019 was less good than it had predicted in May.

The Paris-based OECD called for immediate action to halt the “slide towards protectionism”, noting that trade tensions were already having an impact on confidence and investment.

“The expansion may now have peaked,” the OECD said in its interim economic outlook. “Global growth is projected to settle at 3.7% in 2018 and 2019, marginally below pre-crisis norms, with downside risks intensifying.”

The OECD said it was cutting its 2018 forecast by 0.1 percentage points and its 2019 forecast by 0.3 points.

Britain has had its growth forecast shaved by 0.1 points in both years to 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively – with the OECD saying the squeeze on living standards was affecting consumer spending and uncertainty about Brexit leading to soft investment.

The global economy is growing faster than the British. The poor are getting richer faster than we are – global inequality is falling.

16 thoughts on “An interesting little proof”

  1. 1.3% sounds kind of puny, considering The Donald’s economy is at 4.2% and the Atlanta Fed is apparently predicting 4.7% by the end of the year.

  2. ‘warned that the expansion in the global economy may have peaked after cutting its growth forecasts for an array of rich and developing countries.’

    I will be basing my purchasing decisions on this.

  3. “The west’s leading economic thinktank has warned”

    The notion that anyone else would be styled in his favourite print organ as the leading economics thinktank provokes a howl of protest from an unimpressive end-terrace in Ely, where the UK’s number 1 economics blogger (or blagger to many) pounds away at his keyboard day and night in vainglorious abandon, his due recognition tantalisingly just out of reach.

  4. I keep hearing about ‘Brexit uncertainty’ causing business to delay investment. Doesn’t that mean once it’s sorted one way or another we’ll see a lot of this deferred investment happen quickly? It’s not people not wanting to invest but waiting to see the beat way to go about it.

    If that happens the same Remainers who have been moaning that Brexit is stopping investment will be the first to shout that it would have happened anyway.

  5. Anybody agree it’s looking a bit 2006 out there?

    I’m seeing housebuilding going on everywhere, including the same sort of tiny, overpriced “luxury” flats in dismal provincial towns that ended up causing so much trouble for their buyers last time.

  6. Steve said:
    “Anybody agree it’s looking a bit 2006 out there?”

    Yup. Government hosing money around as if the good times can never stop. Not got quite as silly as 2006, but we’re not in as good a position to withstand a shock.

  7. U.S. markets hit record highs yesterday.

    Apparently, the fools don’t listen to the west’s leading economic think tank.

  8. Every time an uneducated third-worlder leaves his country and sets up in ours, his country gets growth, ours loses a little. An economic encapsulation of Greater Shithole Theory.

  9. GIven that spending decisions 10-20 years ago about what level of welfare and public spending we can afford were based on future growth of over 2% it isn’t exactly encouraging. We insist on importing low value labour, we have welfare promises we have no chance of meeting and economic growth is weak.

  10. @Philip Scott Thomas, September 21, 2018 at 11:32 am

    +1

    Worse, May & Hammond refuse to cut taxes here – they plan to raise them again in budget

  11. Pcar –

    Yep. Slash taxes and regulation (my main man Donald insisted on cutting two for every new one introduced), then step back and let the economy rip.

    Lowest Black-, Hispanic-, and Asian-American unemployment rates on record.

    Lowest youth unemployment rate since 1966.

    Lowest female unemployment rate since 1953.

  12. PST – Lowest female unemployment rate since 1953

    That’s probably a bad thing, though it’s probably a bit too much to ask even Donald J. Trump to fix the entire broken superorganic system (maybe in his second term).

    Women have been ripped off, bigly, by the modern world. 50 years ago they could reasonably expect a house, a husband, and a family by the age of 25. Real, tactile, emotionally-satisfying achievements and a sense of security.

    Now they get student debt, increasingly unsatisfying and anxiety-triggering cubicle or retail jobs, a series of sterile pump-n-dump “relationships”, low-grade alcoholism and cats.

    It’s a yuge, yuge problem because of suicidal birthrates and the even more urgent question of what the hell are we gonna do with all the geriatric catladies? Who’s going to take care of all the childless women when they’re old and feeble? Look at how much the elderly struggle now – and they usually have one or two adult children around.

    Much as we might like to let Amanda Marcotte drown in her drool cup, we can’t just abandon them. Third Worlders sure as Allah aren’t going to pay their pensions. And they don’t earn enough or save enough to provide for themselves. So that leaves us with… robots? Johnny 5 wept.

    A deeply cynical mind might question if this is one of the real reasons for Liverpool pathways and the progressive fetish for euthanasia.

    And meanwhile, it’s not as if women are happy.

    My pet theory is that the reason we hear so much feminist prattle these days, despite feminism now effectively being the law of the land, is because it’s a cry for help. They want to live under a Patriarchy, that’s why they keep yammering about The Patriarchy. Anomie afflicts everyone (it’s why so many men have basically checked out of society to spend more time playing videogames and wanking), but it affects women – the more social sex – worst.

    Sure, it’s probably not that original a theory, but seems true nonetheless. Let’s make gender roles great again.

  13. @Steve

    Spot on. My mother says the same and she’s a robust Conservative old-school feminist.

    Her view: don’t discriminate, but don’t cajole/bribe/blackmail either.

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