So, what’s the effect on prices of this?

The National Farmers Union has warned of “catastrophic” consequences for the industry if there is no Brexit deal, after being warned by the EU that the UK faces a six-month wait to be certified as an approved third-country supplier.

This would be a major setback to the food and drink sector, where exports to the EU are worth £13.2bn a year.

The NFU says it has been told informally that although Britain is in complete regulatory alignment with the EU, if there is no deal, the same health checks countries such as China and the US undergo will apply to UK suppliers.

“What we are talking about in effect is a six-month trade embargo until such time we can get the product in, from that point we will face the European’s external tariff wall meaning we will be priced out of the market,” said the NFU’s director general, Terry Jones.

We’re told that Brexit will mean higher food pries. We’re told that Brexit will mean foo can’t leave he country. Not really possible for both to be true now, is it?

19 thoughts on “So, what’s the effect on prices of this?”

  1. “after being warned by the EU that the UK faces a six-month wait to be certified as an approved third-country supplier.”

    This is one of those games two can play, isn’t it? No French cheese and wine until proved utterly safe, no Beemers until we’ve driven a few into a block of concrete to see what happens, etc. etc. etc.

  2. The NFU says it has been told informally…
    …which means that this supposed ban or delay is likely to be nonsense.

    But even supposing the threat were real, anyone but a snivelling cur would respond by telling the EU to do its worst and celebrate Brexit as being long overdue.

  3. The NFU have long been on the EU’s tit.

    A decent PM would quickly call them for the liars they are.

    But of course we have a traitorous turd in a skirt who likely welcomes their attempts to bolster her failed Project Fear 2 farce.

  4. It is possible that we’ll have more apples and fewer oranges than we’d like, or too many potatoes and not enough olives. But the market will still clear.

  5. Third, fourth order effects? The reduced demand for exported British food will reduce production.

    Really, nobody knows and in a year’s time when we know what actually did happen, we can all come up with a million data-driven hypotheses to explain the results.

    What we do know is the Brexiteers believe everything will be swimmingly better with free unicorn milk being handed out to all, £350M a week for the NHS, cheap food and high prices for grain etc, and the Remoaners believe Britain will resemble a dystopian sci-fi flick (to an extent greater than at present).

    Let’s wait and see.

  6. @ BiG
    First-order effect – lobbyists asking for more subsidy!
    Reduced requirement to import French milk products will permit increase in British dairy produce.
    You can’t simultaneously have cheap food and high prices for grain unless you live in a totalitarian state.

  7. Bloke in Germany said:
    “Third, fourth order effects? The reduced demand for exported British food will reduce production.”

    They’re saying there will be problems for 6 months until the new systems are put in place. Not many farmers are going to take long-term decisions to pull out of production because of that.

  8. “What we do know is the Brexiteers believe everything will be swimmingly better with free unicorn milk being handed out to all, £350M a week for the NHS, cheap food and high prices for grain etc, and the Remoaners believe Britain will resemble a dystopian sci-fi flick (to an extent greater than at present).”

    No I think there will be some significant, but short terrm disruption.

    A price well worth paying for sovereignty.

  9. Ireland had 60 years of disruption, and were warned they would have many years of disruption, and yet they still chose to leave the United Kingdom. Ditto the American colonies and the British Empire. You’d think maybe people are capable of balances costs and benefits.

  10. “You can’t simultaneously have cheap food and high prices for grain unless you live in a totalitarian state.”

    Sorry that was the point being made. As there are only few irony-incapable yanks here I didn’t feel the need to underline it.

    Porzellankuh: Let them drink (lactose-free) unicorn milk!

  11. @ BiG
    The EU is progressively becoming a totalitarian state so it’s the Remoaners, not the Brexiteers, who are claiming there will be cheap food and high prices for grain – if we renege on Brexit – or expensive food and low grain prices if we leave.
    There may only be a few yanks but there are lots of pendants.

  12. My brother summed up farmers and their moaning years ago: “They complain of a drought when it doesn’t rain, and then they complain their crops are ruined when it does. They complain their backs are to the wall and they’re all about to go bankrupt, and a whole way of life is about to be wiped out by the man in Whitehall. And then they buy a brand-new fucking Range Rover.”

  13. I thinkwhat’s going to happen is more along the general tenet of mr. Worstall’s line of thought:

    If the UK produces *anything* the EU cannot source elsewhere for a reasonable price/value level, arrangements will be made post-haste to expedite trade in those commodities.
    Even after the hardest of Brexits and a couple of tantrums to boot.
    If not……. well…….

    Note that the reverse is also true.
    I cannot , however, think of anything that’s currently produced in the UK that’s mission-critical to the EU.

  14. If the farmers think this is a real danger, whyyyyyyyyy aren’t they working to get that certification *now*, instead of waiting?

    Could it be that they a) don’t think it’ll be necessary, b) aren’t forward looking, c) don’t think it will be as difficult or time-consuming to get as the professional fearmongers are screaming about? Some combination of the three?

  15. “I cannot , however, think of anything that’s currently produced in the UK that’s mission-critical to the EU.”

    Certain financial services?

  16. @ Grumblin
    Medicines
    The UK exports 45 million packs of medicine to the EU-27 *every month*.
    The Remoaners are saying that *we* shall run out of medicines!
    Yeah! And the moon is made of blue cheese!
    The leading inventors/producers of drugs are the UK, USA Switzwerland and Japan (in that order last time I checked but that’s some time ago).

  17. @ Theophrastus
    The EU *could*, at a pinch, manage without Lloyd’s and the rest of the City, just as it did from 1940 to 1945. Money is less important if you have lots of it.

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