The more difficult they say it is the less we should do it

It is likely to be the most critical and controversial report on climate change in recent years.

Leading scientists are meeting in South Korea this week to see if global temperatures can be kept from rising by more than 1.5C this century.

The world has already passed one degree of warming as carbon emissions have ballooned since the 1850s.

Many low-lying countries say they may disappear under the sea if the 1.5C limit is breached.

After a week of deliberations in the city of Incheon, the researchers’ new report is likely to say that keeping below this limit will require urgent and dramatic action from governments and individuals alike.

The more expensive it is to meet the 1.5 target the less we should try to meet the 1.5 target. Sadly, the Stern Review is entirely clear upon this and every other bugger has entirely forgotten it.

25 thoughts on “The more difficult they say it is the less we should do it”

  1. Mr W… I seem to recall you eviscerating the Stern Report when it was first released for using the “wrong” discount rate… You now seem to treat it like Holy Writ.

    What changed your mind?

  2. ‘Many low-lying countries say they may disappear under the sea if the 1.5C limit is breached, so we must give them lots of money.’

    FIFY

  3. Increase in last hundred years is 0,65C to 1,2C… which means they don’t know but have settled on 0,8C.

    Most of this warming came in the early part of the 20th Century and none since 1995.

    1,5C is chosen because below that there is no discernable change to climate outside natural variation. Therefore global average temperature is half that required to begin to see any change in climate which in any case will be beneficial.

    Since Nature is already taking care of it, what do we have to do?

    So if there has been an increase of 1C since 1850s, of which estimated 0,8C last hundred years, then there can have been no change to climate attributable to Mankind.

    Up to 2,5C any change to climate will be beneficial.

    And exactly what exactly ‘should’ global temperature and climate be?

  4. What action is proposed to stop India and China from building more coal fired power stations? We can’t impose a carbon tax on them, we’ve asked repeatedly. Is it important enough to justify war?
    Because if they don’t stop it won’t matter a damn what anyone else does.

  5. You noticed they just moved the goalposts?
    Up to Paris it was all about not exceeding 2C. Now it’s 1.5C, presumably because they realised we might not get to 2C even with no action whatsoever.

    Got to keep the panic going!

  6. They can stick all of their lying Marxist cockrot right back the arse it came from.

    If non-leftists can have their appearance venues cancelled at the last minute why can’t it be arranged to have the venue–and hotels–of the forthcoming evil circus in South Korea cancelled at 10 seconds to zero.

    Confiscate all of Soros money and use it to bribe the hotels/venue. Imagine all the eco-twats trying to sleep on benches while attempting to re-convene in a park or some such.

    Wheeze of the week for sure.

  7. The Pedant-General

    “I seem to recall you eviscerating the Stern Report when it was first released for using the “wrong” discount rate… You now seem to treat it like Holy Writ.”

    @Baron,

    You’re correct that he eviscerated it. However, this is not an endorsement of it. This is saying that even Stern who was a bonkers environmentalist would suggest we shouldn’t be doing this

  8. As I understand it they run CMIP5 simulations at the 1.5’C range and compare to those at a different GMST (either current or past) and compare the two sets of runs.

    Given however that the CMIP5 GCMs can’t even agree on ECS (median 3.2’C), which is the first order effect, everything else is not particularly useful. This is why AR5 had no central estimate of ECS and was modified downwards (expert estimate) in the near to mid time-frames.

    If GCM’s are un-skillful with regards to GMST then they are utterly worthless for second-order, and beyond, effects.

    Our best non-GCM guess for ECS is the empirical method developed for Otto et al 2013, the latest incarnation (most up to date data) of which is Lewis and Curry 2018 which I think has ECS (median) lower than 1.7’C.

  9. I want whatever temperature variation means hotter summers and more snow in winter for me, ideally with fewer strong winds.

  10. I’m more convinced about discount rates than I was. Still don’t take Stern’s calculation as gospel but I’m entirely happy with the idea that we shouldn’t use market rates for long term decisions.

    Most of the rest of the argument is as already said. It’s “even if we believe Stern we still shouldn’t do this.”

  11. 1.5°C

    They use a decimal point to show they have a sense of humor.

    We haven’t the slightest fvcking clue what global mean temperature was in 1850. Nor even 1950. Until the satellite measurement system was launched in 1979, temperatures on earth were sporadically measured. One reading represented a million square kilometers. Large swathes of central Australia, Africa and South America had NO READINGS AT ALL. 70% of the earth is covered by places with no weather stations.

    Tony Heller giggles when they show temperature rises in central Africa, because he knows that there were no thermometers there, no readers, nor communications systems to convey the readings. IT IS COMPLETELY MADE UP.

    Anthony Watts’ landmark evaluation of suitability of weather stations in 2008 showed that TWO THIRDS of existing weather stations were non-compliant with basic standards.

    1.5°C my big ol’ hairy butt.

    ‘Leading scientists are meeting in South Korea this week to see’

    Leading? Who says? They are meeting to have a good time, because they can.

  12. Sorry, GCM simulations will be compared to runs were there was no anthropogenic forcing; was having a brain-fart

  13. As Gamecock says, this is just a “Give us your money” exercise. I just weep for all the wasted investment in the renewables boondoggle when we could actually be getting more of the world out of poverty and giving ourselves a bit more too.

    For all that the dour Scotsman kept us out of the Euro, he and the Milliboy should be eternally damned for the Climate Change Act.

  14. Odd. There’s been a 1deg rise in temperature & we’ve seen precisely zero rise in sea levels (I’m sitting beside the Med & if there was a change of sea level in the Atlantic you’d see something dramatic happening at the Strait of Gib, down the road. Sea level here’s the same as it was in Roman times). So what’s another half a degree supposed to achieve. The Biblical Flood?

  15. Bravefart, I’ve been told we won’t get warmer overall we’ll instead have much hotter summers and much colder winters.

    The summers bit I’m fine with. The winters bit I can stay indoors for.
    Overall I cannot see a problem with the global warming religion. They are still arguing about angels dancing on a pin.

    And keeps the priests and followers of that religion occupied while other people get on with life.

    Better than when I was a child, the same religion and some of the same priests predicted a new ice age on the way.
    Isn’t global warming nice for dealing with that nasty ice age?

  16. Dennis the Peasant

    Blah, blah, blah, climate change, world’s gonna end, blah, blah, disaster, death, blah, blah, too important to be left to democratic processes, blah, blah.

    Fuck it.

    We’ve heard this song and seen this dance before. Climate change is real and it doesn’t have a fucking thing to do with mankind and never has and all this is about is totalitarians trying to grab as much power and money as they can.

    Fuck them.

  17. – “The world has already passed one degree of warming as carbon emissions have ballooned since the 1850s.”

    Note they deliberately pick the depths of the Little Ice Age as their start date, and that in any case most of the subsequent warming they refer to took place before WWII, i.e. before there were significant levels of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (and that those post-war emission increases actually coincided with a cooling period, resulting in the well-publicised claims of an impending ice age.)

    Charlatans and crooks.

  18. Wat – we are due another mini ice age soon. Will people cry out to global warming to save them when temperatures drop enough for ice fairs on the Thames? Again.

  19. Low-lying countries…..

    Funny… the dutch have dealt with more than the projected rise of sea level since the Roman era with mostly just iron-age and medieval tools…

    And we’re ready to take on another meter or two in the future with current tech.

    Where’s the problem?

  20. Funny… the dutch have dealt with more than the projected rise of sea level since the Roman era with mostly just iron-age and medieval tools…

    And we’re ready to take on another meter or two in the future with current tech.

    You forget that we also have current planning regulations and bureaucracies; fields will be meters deep in sea water and the council bureaucrats will still be tied up on raising the sea wall by 6 inches due to the potential effect on the wading habitat of the lesser spotted, blue tongued snail.

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