Fascinating

This would be happening without Brexit. The decline in car buying; mobile phone buying and so much more; as well as debt stress, are all real phenomena. What they suggest is that we have an economy that is realising that its practices are unsustainable, come what may. A debt crisis is likely, and with it bank and pension fund stress on very large scale, which could trigger recession in its own right.

Eighth, the risk of the suspension of normal government in the UK is high to deal with post-Brexit chaos.

Apparently car sales back down to the depths of 2007 mean we’re in for fascism in the UK.

Note that 2007 is pre-recession….

25 thoughts on “Fascinating”

  1. In discussing Shamima Begum , Murphy pontificates

    “What is at stake is whether or not citizenship is an option, or not. I would argue that it is not.”

    Murphy clings to his option of either UK or Irish citizenship.

  2. The decline in car and mobile phone buying is going to result in a collapse of the British economy (OH MY!).

    An amazing leap!

    Typical Murphy. He WANTS an economic collapse. He ain’t going to get it.

  3. @ Gamecock

    Like all lefties, Murphy wants the economy to collapse. He needs it to. Because he isn’t where he feels he deserves to be. So it must be a con, right? Everyone who is successful must be cheating, right? Or they just got lucky?

  4. I thought, like the good quaker he pretends to be, the cunt is against conspicuous consumption anyway ? Surely he’d see this as a good thing ?

  5. The decline in car buying has absolutely nothing to do with the all knowing all seeing all powerful State going around demonising fossil fuelled cars and suggesting that they will be banned in hardly more than the life of a brand new car today, oh no! And nothing at all to do with there being no viable alternative for said fossil fuelled cars on the market, because they’re all crap in comparison.

  6. Countless innumerate journalists have tried to paint a link between the 2007 housing bubble and the more recent growth in car debt (PCP/leasing). But the numbers aren’t remotely comparable. The most popular new car, the Ford Fiesta, costs around £16k. An average home costs £225k. There simply isn’t any comparable systemic risk.

  7. The deeper drive is demographics. With the usual shedfull of salt you need for Zerohedge – there have been some interesting slides there lately showing the global population projections. Rich vs poor countries and wage earning vs oldies demography. Globally we’re just entering a death spiral of wage earning folk in countries with any GDP to talk of. A demand collapse. So a jobs collapse. And a welfare Ponzi blow out. Since we’re all way underwater in debt that means a big inflation is coming. Buy gold, baked beans and shotgun shells.

  8. The slow down in mobile phone sales is little to do with the economic climate and lots to do with the technology curve. The marginal improvement in new phone models and MNOs not subsidising them to the same extent means that people just aren’t incentivised to upgrade.

    Plus all the talk about 5G means that early adopters will be hanging of for 5G compatible phones.

  9. The slow down in mobile phone sales is little to do with the economic climate and lots to do with the technology curve. The marginal improvement in new phone models and MNOs not subsidising them to the same extent means that people just aren’t incentivised to upgrade.

    Indeed. I just bought a second-hand reconditioned S5 NEO for a fraction of the price of a new phone. It works far better than my older Sony, and there is literally nothing that a newer phone could do better than it does to a point that I’d even notice. And I only upgraded from a dumphone a little less than a year ago (and replaced the Sony mostly due to it being an unreliable POS with battery life best measured in nanoseconds – bought it second-hand too).

    If I were Spuddo I’d use that to say that more powerful phones should be banninated. But I’m not….

  10. The slow down in mobile phone sales may have something to do with the fact that companies like Apple want to sell you a phone for $1,000 these days. You don’t swap those puppies out every year for the next newest, greatest, $1K model, now do you?

  11. Purchased a new fossil fuel motor yesterday morning. Doing my bit for the economy – the planet will take care of itself.

  12. Isn’t the slow down in car sales because every idiot in the country has now already got a brand new car on a 4 year PCP deal, and the rest of us have taken to buying up the best of the now dirt cheap second hand market (the original owner of my car paid approximately 25p/m to have it from new, if I wrote it off today, its only cost me 3p/m, and I think its probably got at least another 25k miles or so left).

    The motor industry went through a PCP bonanza when suddenly “everybody” could afford a new car. Now all those owners are having to hold on to their “new” toys because the can’t afford more, and unsurprisingly, sales have slowed.

    The fact that from an end users point of view cars were actually better 10 years ago than they are now doesn’t help either. Why replace my car that does 70mpg with the emissions gimped version that does 50mpg unless I have to?

  13. I tend to buy a car that has lots of life left in it and is old enough for me to be able to afford it. I then keep it until it becomes uneconomical to repair. I also insist on having a proper handbrake.

  14. Stony: +1
    15-year-old Corsa £500, keep it going until the MOT is more than purchase cost. Costs a tidy 25p per mile inc. purchase, MOT, tax and insurance. Done that twice so far.

  15. Cost?

    Screw that. Gamecock drives a Shelby GT350. Or a 2001 Bullitt. Or a V10 Dodge truck. Life is too short to worry about gas mileage.

    I was thinking about the 2020 GT500, but it’s automatic trans only. Ford are idiots.

  16. I’m a big fan of older cars… I have one that is 20yo and one that is 14 and they are smoother, quieter and faster than any of my friends newer cars… It does help that both are very high spec cars when new so some other fool lost the bulk of their money… ~£90k cost of cars for ~£8k to me! Will keep them until they can’t be fixed as I’ll never find anything better for the same money…

  17. “The motor industry went through a PCP bonanza when suddenly “everybody” could afford a new car. Now all those owners are having to hold on to their “new” toys because the can’t afford more, and unsurprisingly, sales have slowed.”

    Absolutely. The car industry has been riding the ‘buy a car on HP’ train for a couple of decades now, as more and more people could afford to ‘buy’ a new car on finance, instead of buying a old second hand one. So the market for new cars was actually rising, rather than static. Now we’ve reached the point where there’s no more new people left to sell a new car to on HP, so all that left is the turnover – people who had a new car several years ago buying another one. And given the uncertainty about what fuels and taxes will apply in years to come, people are hanging on to todays car to see how things turn out. So the turnover sales have nosedived as well.

    Plus cars are actually far more reliable than they used to be – my fleet consists of a 7.5 year old Golf, a 13.5 year old Mercedes ML320, and an approaching 20 years old LR Discovery. I had to MOT the Disco this week, it sailed through without so much as an advisory.

  18. @Gamecock

    I like the idea of American muscle cars. The closest we get to that here is probably Ford’s 5 litre Mustang.

    But they suffer from an image problem here. In the US people probably think “hey, nice car” over here they probably think “what a poseur”. Especially if you’re in your 50s, like me

  19. I agree about buying a second hand car. Buy one three or four years old. It’s over the big depreciation, has plenty of life left and anything wrong with it initially has been found and fixed/replaced.

  20. Dennis,

    Easily done, assuming you aren’t pushing the mileage up. Those cars should be good enough for 150K at least.

    18 years on my Renault Megane. Around 140K miles. I’m planning on hitting 20.

    I’m struggling to think of the last person I know that got rid of a car because they got a whopping repair. For most people I know, they sell a working car or scrap it because it’s so old and horrible to use.

    It doesn’t help that for me, my mileage is almost non-existent now. With apps and smartcards and stuff, I use buses and trains more. I get Amazon to deliver. My car is for everything else – when buses and trains don’t run, trips to the countryside, picking up paint, trips to the tip. I rarely do over 100 miles a week. So I don’t care if it’s disgusting.

  21. I bought a Civic 1.8VTi in 1997 and kept it for 16 years, by which time it had done 140,000 miles, and the only thing that had broken was a rear wheel bearing. I got rid of it for Mandelson’s scrappage scheme.

    The missus still runs a 20yo MX-5 (again bought new) with less than 70,000 on the clock. A couple of little rust spots on the body, but otherwise perfect.

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