It could be that the UK is heading the world into a downturn: it’s happened before.
It could be Brexit, which is what most commentators outside the UK think.
What it is not is good for the conventional view of the economy.
The conventional view of the economy is that there is a business cycle, Gordon Brown did not abolish it. It’s largely diven by animal spirits, something that uncertainty undermines.
Thus Brexit, uncertainty, lack of animal spirits, well, why not a recession?
That’s actually the conventional view.
And who it is also not good for is those Brexiteers who said that those who suggested Brexit would cause a downturn were wrong. We’ve now got to the point where that prediction can be tested. And those who made it, me included, are being proved right.
No surprise there then. It was glaringly obvious.
Mrs – Ex might be able to correct him on this. A doctor can confidently predict that someone will die. It’s the timescale over which the prediction is made that matters. A century is piss easy and useless. The moment people vote to leave the EU is useful but wrong.