To be honest, I doubt it

The Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has predicted that there will be a recession in America by the time Donald Trump comes up for re-election at the end of next year.

There will be one, sure. And Donald hasn’t aided matters by the tax cutting stimulus at the top of the cycle. But there’s 18 months to go and we’d need 6 months of negative growth to be in recession – unlikely to say the least.

Possible, sure. But I tend to think that’s Krugman the columnist talking there, not Krugman the economist.

11 thoughts on “To be honest, I doubt it”

  1. Krugman the deceitful sack of shit.

    Tom Woods–the Libertarian writer–has an entire regular podcast devoted to exposing the bollocks and leftist cockrot spewed by Krugman.

    Tim O/T but might be of interest. I have got a letter from the elec/gas supplier saying my bill is likely to be £145 up next year because of the increased cost of supplying their product and “govt policy”. That is a 10% increase. I doubt the cost of doing what they are doing has risen 10% in one year. My guess is that the fucking state’s green-freakshow is responsible. And that this is the Fish-Faced Cow doing her part –like Macon with petrol and now food–to impoverish ordinary folk as part of the Globo-elite’s plan to flop 95% of us lower than whaleshit using eco-freakery as the pretext. Which will of course include all the remainiac trash who are EU useful idiots.

    How about a blog piece so that those more energy knowledgeable can have their say?

  2. 10% doesn’t sound all that far off changes – in sterling – for fuel prices to be honest. Not my area of expertise but….

  3. When the recession comes, it could be the first in human history which leaves people better off, on aggregate. Feck knows, GDP is just a measure of the traded value of the what we earn, produce, consume. It doesn’t capture any improvements in society by having more free time where free stuff gets done ( volunteering, social media et al ). Paying marginal rate of tax of 38% sucks – if my company can automate a few more non-income generating processes, and drop a day’s income a week off me, then bring the recession on.

  4. Tell me has the stock market recovered from Trump’s election yet? If it has then perhaps we would be wise to ignore the predictions of those who said it never would.

  5. The point that there may not be enough time between now and Nov 2020 to officially measure a recession sounds reasonable enough, but there could always be a perception that things are slowing even if the economists aren’t done measuring. Who knows? The election is going to be totally dependent upon whom the Democrats nominate, and there seems to be some chance at the moment that they will go full whackadoodle.

  6. How long term do they look at these things anyway?

    Two years of 10% growth followed by a year of 5% recession and you are still 15% up after 3 years. Better than 2% growth per year.

  7. dearieme

    It was only the counterfeit Nobel Prize.

    I think it was Bill Nordhaus who replied to a similar statement that it was a damned good substitute and they treated him exactly the same as the other winner when he went to collect it.

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